Analysing the transfer gossip – 5th June Part One: Ronaldo, Robben, Spurs and more

As we move in to the off-season an unprecedented amount of managerial movement around Europe will surely see an already frantic transfer market go in to overdrive. This will give plenty of opportunities for transfer rumour and gossip. So how much of it is realistic?

There is a huge bundle of transfer gossip today so I’ve had to split this in to two parts.

Manchester United have increased their efforts to sign Real Madrid forward Cristiano Ronaldo, 28, and they are prepared to offer £65m plus a player to prise him from the Spanish club.

Full Story: The Sun

What’s the story? Ronaldo has made no secret of his admiration for United who need to sign him to have a chance at winning the Champions League.

Does it make sense? How can signing Ronaldo not make sense? The bit that there is no player in exchange. Other than perhaps De Gea or maybe Rafael I don’t see who Real would want.

Is the price right? Not quite. Real paid £80m, and he’s still worth that, maybe more if Gareth Bale is worth £85m. If it’s the former, who are United offering that is worth £15m? It doesn’t add up.

Will it happen? 5/10 – It could do eventually, but not unless Real get Bale and not in this iteration.

Manchester United defender Patrice Evra, 32, is poised to join his former club Monaco – paving the way for Leighton Baines to move from Everton to Old Trafford.

Full story: Daily Mirror

What’s the story? Monaco are throwing money around, need a left back, and Patrice Evra learned his football there. If they move him Moyes can sign Baines without worrying who to start.

Does it make sense? Yes, all around. Evra gets his big final pay day at his old club and United can get Baines to be their man for the future. Imagine all the chances he’d create for van Persie.

Is the price right? Baines could be as much as £15m which is a lot for a left back but he’d be a great signing. I guess they’d get a few million out of Monaco for Evra.

Will it happen? 9/10 – It makes an awful lot of sense.

Tottenham have offered 30-year-old England striker Jermain Defoe plus cash to Aston Villa in exchange for Christian Benteke, 22. Spurs face competition from Atletico Madrid, who are ready to bid £25m for the Belgium forward.

Full story: Daily Mirror

What’s the story? Spurs need to upgrade their attack, and Benteke would be a great place to start. Likewise for Atletico who have just lost Falcao and are cash rich.

Does it make sense? It does for Spurs but I’m not convinced it does for Villa. Much of Villa’s tactical game planning in 2013 centered on exploiting Benteke’s physicality. They couldn’t do that with Defoe who is a pure poacher. The Villa attack isn’t mature or sophisticated enough to operate with a poacher. For Atletico, Benteke is a big body like Falcao and although much less refined, is more of a physical threat. Benteke should stay at Villa another year though, and then move when he is ready to carry the load.

Is the price right? It’s hard to value him at £25m after one year of goal scoring but I dare say it would cost that to get him out of Villa so it’s probably about right.

Will it happen? 8/10 – Not with Defoe for Spurs but if they match Atletico’s money Villa won’t reject, as dangerous as it would be to sell.

Bayern Munich want Liverpool striker Luis Suarez, 26, and are prepared to offer winger Arjen Robben, 29, as part of a swap deal.

Full story: The Sun

What’s the story? Nah. Bayern seem to be on an inevitable course towards getting Robert Lewandowski and Real Madrid Luis Suarez.

Does it make sense? If this could happen for Liverpool they would be delirious with happiness. But, there’s no way Robben would go to an non Champions League club, and nor should he.

Is the price right? Suarez’s price is £50m. I can’t see Liverpool being bullied in to less when he has four years on his contract. Robben must be worth £20-25m. If Liverpool could somehow get £20m and Robben for Suarez it’s the deal of the decade.

Will it happen? 0/10 – Bayern and Suarez have eyes elsewhere, Robben belongs in the Champions League.

Liverpool hope to keep Denmark defender Daniel Agger, 28, at Anfield despite interest from big-spending Monaco.

Full story: The Guardian

What’s the story? Agger was wanted by Man City last summer, and went on to have the worst season of his Liverpool career. So obviously Monaco are waving their cheque book at him.

Does it make sense? I think it does for Liverpool. Especially if they get the type of money being discussed. I guess Monaco could do with better defenders.

Is the price right? The talk is of something in the £25m region which is unfathomable for a 28 year old injury prone defender coming off a down year. Liverpool should snap Monaco’s hand off for anything over £12m, never mind this much.

Will it happen? 8/10 – This one has heated up with lots of credible sources discussing it, so probably.

Arsenal defender Laurent Koscielny, 27, a £15m summer target for Bayern Munich, admits he could leave the Gunners if they fail to show ambition in the transfer market.

Full story: Daily Mail

What’s the story? The familiar ‘ambition in the transfer market’ refrain from an Arsenal player. The Gunners simply must not sell Koscielny. Over the last few months he has emerged as one of the top defenders in the world and would be a big upgrade for Bayern.

Does it make sense? It does for Bayern but would be insane for Arsenal. If they really are attacking this summer’s market as they say they are, where would selling one of their best players fit in?

Is the price right? £15m is about fair enough but Arsenal have finally fixed their defence. They must not break it up.

Will it happen? 3/10 – All signs point to Arsenal finally putting their foot down and not selling.

France international midfielder Etienne Capoue, 24, has admitted he will be looking to leave Toulouse this summer, with Arsenal and Tottenham both interested.

Full story: Metro

What’s the story? Capoue is the latest highly rated French league defensive midfielder to emerge as a big physical dominating presence and Toulouse aren’t in Europe so if he wants to get on the plane to Brazil next summer he’ll need a bigger stage.

Does it make sense? I’m not convinced Spurs or Arsenal are the best landing spot for him. Spurs have Sandro if he gets fit and Arsenal have the reinvented Aaron Ramsey who really improved in his anchor man role. I’m not convinced Capoue is a significant enough upgrade to be prioritised.

Is the price right? He’d probably be in the £8-12m region but if Arsenal really want to spend a lot on an anchor man, they’d be better off going for the superior Sven Bender.

Will it happen? 2/10 – doesn’t fit the positional need or price of either club.