Analysis: Is Manchester United’s fight for the top-four all but over?

Can Manchester United make the top four? Anything’s possible but it no longer seems likely. David Moyes’ team have slipped down to become something of a midtable outfit this season, well adrift of the Champions League and with little to play for realistically speaking.

The sad truth is that United’s top four destiny no longer lies in their own hands. For once, the season’s title race is proving to be a genuine four-team affair, with Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool all still very much in the running. Each and every side within this quartet of contenders can also cite their own substantial arguments as to why they hold the strongest hand with which they can ride the crescendo of spring and summer to Premier League glory.

Liverpool can boast Luis Suarez, Daniel Sturridge and an in-form supporting cast who are now thriving within Brendan Rodgers’ system. The mere presence of Jose Mourinho at Stamford Bridge once more makes for a compelling case in Chelsea’s favour alone. Similarly, Manuel Pellegrini has so far lived up to his nickname as “the Engineer” by finding a way to harmonise City’s extravagantly assembled squad into a team who have already scored well over 100 goals this season. Meanwhile, early leaders Arsenal are still riding hard in the front pack; down but not out and soon to be reinvigorated by the return to form and fitness of Mesut Ozil, Olivier Giroud and Aaron Ramsey.

Still, United fans can point to plenty of reasons why Moyes team could still come good—the exciting yet unfulfilled potential of Juan Mata, Wayne Rooney, Robin van Persie and Adnan Januzaj combining to highlight just one—but regardless of the evidence and analysis that can be assembled, the fate of the reigning champions hangs over whether one of the four teams ahead of them will implode before May.

To be in a position to pounce upon any such failures or falls from grace though, United most first overshadow Tottenham Hotspur and Everton who they currently trail by eight and three point respectively, though the Toffees could still stretch that gap with a game in hand.

Based on his team’s placing in Squawka’s ranking of Performance Score by the 20 teams of the Premier League, Moyes can be perhaps feel unlucky to be behind his current rivals for the Europa League spots, with Rooney & Co. coming in sixth, just behind Everton, in the results.

However, when focusing on the attacking performances of the teams United drop to eighth, behind Spurs, Everton and Southampton. For a squad that can call upon the likes of Rooney, Van Persie and now Mata to push the initiative, their position is inexcusable, with much of the blame for their lack of bite resting on the strict and rigid tactics of their new manager.

Clubs Performance Score Based On Attack Score

It’s no secret that Moyes’ demands for a more regimental approach this campaign has hampered the side’s fluidity and creativity, with United also slumped in seventh by order of Possession Score. It’s hard to retain the ball when your game plan revolves around pumping it as fast as possible to the flanks to order to set up another cross of questionable quality.

They fare far better in the defensive stakes, coming in in fourth place, but if they are to overhaul the teams ahead of them, United and Moyes must become more ambitious, dynamic and brave.

Yet, even if free-range football does return to Old Trafford as the run in rattles towards its climatic conclusion, it’s unlikely to be enough to claw back the top four who are locked into a close and competitive four-man pursuit of the league’s summit. That ship, unless one of the contenders collapses, has sailed.

Comparing the current star players of the top four to United’s best-rated performer, and it’s clear that Old Trafford’s talisman is lacking in control.

Of course, most fans already knew this. Moyes may yet turn out to be the right man for the job, but his first season in charge will now certainly go down as one filled with blunders that undermined the opportunity to mix it up in a relatively open title race early on. It could yet be salvaged however, with the possibility of turning United into the wildcards of the run still a distant possibility should he chose to go down swinging as far as the Champions League places are concerned.

And what does he have to lose by cutting loose and going for the throat in the final weeks of the campaign? With little to play for, bringing excitement and entertainment to Old Trafford would only win Moyes support and foster belief that he could be the so-called “Chosen One” after all. Sticking to his guns and calling for more crosses and less care in midfield will eventually turn off a fan base who understand the value of controlling the middle ground, even if it means trusting in players such as Michael Carrick and Tom Cleverley to manage rather than dominate games. After all, it worked for the last guy pretty well.

United can still make a go of reclaiming the top four but only if Moyes is prepared to take a gamble and risk not only that any efforts could come to nought should their rivals fail to falter but also that his players live and die by their own abilities to some extent.

Either way, things can’t go on as they have—see: the Fulham game —and he may as well up the ante as a prologue to improving the football for next season when a top four finish will be the bare minimum expected of him.