Can Arsenal exceed expectations under Mikel Arteta?

Mikel Arteta, over the last few seasons, has gone through phases at Arsenal where it looked certain he would get the sack. Two 8th placed finishes and he still managed to survive. Three losses in a row to begin the season having not scored a single goal. Somehow, though, Arsenal are right in the middle of a battle for the top four and look one of the favorites to get in.

This article will try and explain why Arteta has hung on and been allowed to build something at Arsenal. Why does he still have a job when others in similar positions have been let go by their clubs?

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Mikel Arteta took over from Freddie Ljunberg who had been in charge for five games post-Emery, during the 19-20 season. Arteta came in at the halfway point matchweek 19 against Bournemouth, for what would be his first job as a manager. Arsenal’s record in the league under Arteta can be seen below.

	19/20 (8th)	20/21 (8th)	21/22 (4th) (As of MW 19)
Won	9	18	9
Drawn	6	7	2
Lost	5	13	7
Goals Scored	32	55	27
Goals Conceded	21	39	23
Clean Sheets	7	12	8
Academy Starts	30	59	39
Total Academy Appearances	58	71	60
Expected Goals	49.2 (8th)	53.5 (9th)	29.8 (4th)
Expected Goals Against	56.6 (14th)	44.3 (5th)	28.3 (15th)

Last starting XI under Emery -

Bernd Leno; Sokratis, David Luiz, Callum Chambers; Keiran Tierney, Matteo Guendouzi, Lucas Torreira, Hector Bellerin; Mesut Ozil; Alexandre Lacazette, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

Latest starting XI under Arteta -

Aaron Ramsdale; Keiran Tierney, Gabriel, Ben White, Takehiro Tomiyasu; Granit Xhaka, Thomas Partey; Gabriel Martinelli, Martin Odegaard, Bukayo Saka; Alexandre Lacazette

Arteta's Faith In Youth

Arsenal v Southampton - Premier League

Arteta has shown faith in the players from Arsenal's Hale End by making them regulars in his lineup. The likes of Saka and Eddie Nketiah, along with Emil Smith Rowe, have been ever-present. He has made big calls by dropping Aubemayang and other senior players and spending 150 million pounds in the summer of 2021. Five of the eleven players from Emery’s last game aren’t even at the club now.

An asterisk is that he has never given a debut to an academy player in the Premier League. Academy players might be key cogs under him, but they all made their debuts under previous managers. The lineup does show that he has put his faith in hungry players who have something to prove over household names. That faith has paid off in recent performances, but there have been bumps.

With White, Odegaard, Gabriel, Tomiyasu added amongst the academy graduates, these are players that have given the fans some excitement. Too often fans have complained about the players not playing for the badge. This young squad might not win every game but they often tend to give it their all.

A Development Of Tactics

Leeds United v Arsenal - Premier League

When Arteta came in his first six months Arsenal were reliant on balls over the top of defences that found Aubameyang. The tactic worked well for the team, especially in the FA Cup final against Chelsea in 2020. Aubameyang's pace was too much for Cesar Azpilicueta to handle and it was a key factor in Arsenal winning the game.

That style of pragmatic football remained for much of last season as people likened him to a lite version of Mourinho. This season, he has tried to implement a higher tempo and possession-based style of play. That has also resulted in them being open at the back once again.

As shown in the table above, Arsenal rank high in expected goals this season. While the formations have been flexible, the goals of retaining possession and control of the game have remained. This is largely due to some key players.

Tierney and Tomiyasu have provided attacking potential from full-back positions. They have a total of four assists this season with one goal. Both also rank in the top five players at Arsenal when it comes to passes into the 18 yard box with 15 each. They also lead the squad in complete crosses into the box at 12 and 11.

Gabriel and Ben White are progressive center backs who have the ability to play out from the back. White ranked in the top five when it came to progressive passes with 42 while Gabriel also ranked in the top 10. The two defenders also have the most completed passes in the team.

If one looks at progressive distance i.e. the distance traveled towards the opponent's goal with the ball they rank in the top three. These types of center backs are key if a team wants to have possession. Virgil van Dijk, Thiago Silva and Ruben Dias are all great at doing this. White and Gabriel, of course, have some way to go before they reach those levels.

The quartet of Odegaard, Saka, Martinelli and Smith Rowe have formed a youthful attacking outlet for Areta as well. Saka and Smith Rowe are direct dribblers and rank as the top two in that metric with 28 and 23 successful attempts. Saka, Odegaard and Smith Rowe form the top three for shot creating actions. They also form the top three for goal creating actions. The four have scored 22 goals.

Two missing links for Arteta are an all-action midfielder and a striker. Partey and Xhaka have formed the midfield two but they are unreliable with injuries and disciplinary issues. Up top with Aubameyang frozen out, Lacazette has been adequate. Arsenal have been rumored with a move for 21 year old Fiorentina striker Dusan Vlahovic, who has 19 goals this season.

Targets For This Season

Out of ex legends to manage their club at a similar time, he is the only one who has won anything. An FA Cup in 2020, along with a Community Shield, the Spaniard has those to his name. He has been afforded time at Arsenal by the hierarchy despite numerous meltdowns by fans. He has been allowed to bring in players he can trust and those players are now paying dividends.

Having finished 8th in the last two seasons, this season Arsenal have been challenging for that 4th place finish. The decline has been gradual since Arsene Wenger left but the club do seem to be improving. If Arsenal can finish in the top four that would be amazing for them. However, a top-six finish would also exceed pre-season expectations.

The players are very much a work in progress. Their average age means it will take time for them to reach the levels of a Manchester City, Chelsea or Liverpool. In the meantime fans will have to be patient and hope that other challengers for the top four slip up and Arsenal manage to stay consistent. Recent form would suggest that they are capable of doing just that.

Arteta is going through the works at the Emirates and getting things done his way. He has been given time to make things work as expectations have been low compared to other teams. It hasn't been smooth sailing with the fans either. Arsenal haven't played Champions League football for five seasons and if Arteta gets Arsenal back in it would only help further the narrative of progress.