Three reasons why Arsenal shouldn’t fear Bayern Munich

Unbeaten in the Bundesliga since October 2012. Champions of Europe. The team that knocked them out at the same stage last season. It’s safe to say that Bayern Munich wasn’t the draw that Arsenal would have picked for the Champions League last 16. On paper it doesn’t sound good. Since winning the trophy last season, Bayern have continued their form under Pep Guardiola. Whilst defeat to Manchester City was a blip on their group stage campaign, Bayern created the most chances of any side in the competition’s group stages and currently have the highest Squawka performance score of any side in the competition.

However, whilst Bayern will probably start as favourites, Arsenal should enter the game with confidence. They almost completed an unlikely comeback in Munich last year with a 2-0 win ensuring that they only exited the competition on away goals, and have improved markedly since.

Last season Arsenal stuttered out of the group stages, finishing second in a group containing Montpeillier, Schalke and Olympiakos. Whilst they finished second again this year, they led their group until the final matchday and picked up two more points than they did in a far easier group last season.

Even though they lost to both Dortmund and Napoli, they were unfortunate not to top their group. The Gunners had more possession than their opponents in every single one of their group stage fixtures and, although the last ten minutes of the Napoli game may have been nervy, emerged unscathed from their group with little fuss.

One of the main reasons behind Arsenal’s improvement this season is their defence – barring last weekend’s capitulation in Manchester. Whilst Per Mertesacker and Laurent Koscielny lined up against Bayern in last season’s games, it is only this season that they have become a real defensive force. Arsenal have conceded five goals in Europe this season, a total that only three teams can beat. During the group stages they have kept three clean sheets – two more than they had at the same stage last season.

Of their best players in the competition so far, by Squawka Performance Score, the first four are all defensive players. In stark contrast to their normally porous defence, Arsenal now have the foundations upon which to build the brand of passing football that has always been present. Koscielny and Mertesacker are now an established partnership and will be confident of avoiding the kind of openness that left the Gunners facing an uphill battle in last season’s tie.

Another big difference from last season is the presence of one man: Mesut Ozil. The German midfielder has created 16 chances in this season’s competition, as well as netting against Napoli. This amounts to 38% of the chances that the team have created in the Champions League this year, four times more than any other single Arsenal player has produced. With seven league assists and two European ones, Ozil provides even more creativity to an Arsenal side that ran Bayern close this time last year.

Arsenal definitely go into the tie as the underdogs. However, victory in the Allianz Arena last season sparked an unbelievable run of form that has taken them to the Premier League summit. With improved form and confidence, a better defensive record and the introuction of Ozil, it is little wonder that Guardiola has called the draw one of the toughest that his side could have had.