Atletico Madrid vs Chelsea - Preview: Jose Mourinho’s shift to 4-3-3 with David Luiz holding the key

We finally arrive at a juncture in the Champions League where all bets are off, and it is almost impossible to predict which team will make it to the finals. The semifinals of football’s biggest club competition are here, and four very strong teams will be battling to reach the final in Lisbon. In the first semifinal, Mourinho’s Chelsea travel to Madrid to play Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid, while Guardiola’s Bayern visit the Santiago Bernabeu to face Ancelotti’s Real Madrid.

The point of discussion even before the draw for this stage took place was the situation of Chelsea’s on-loan goalkeeper Thiabaut Courtois. The Belgian stopper’s loan agreement had UEFA scratching their heads, but they finally came out with a ruling that the keeper can play against any side (even the parent club), and any sort of inter-club agreements are void. UEFA had a completely opposite ruling for a similar situation, previously. This was a clear example of double standards, but Chelsea were quick to respond by claiming that they would never have banned Courtois from playing against them.

Probable Starting Lineups

Atletico Madrid (4-4-2) : Courtois – Juanfran, Miranda, Godin, Filipe – Garcia, Gabi, Tiago, Koke – Villa, Costa

Chelsea (4-3-3) : Cech – Azpilicueta, Cahill, Terry, Cole – Luiz, Ramires, Lampard – Schurrle, Willian, Torres

Team News

Diego Simeone has almost fully fit squad with only Arda Turan missing out with injury. Raul Garcia is expected to start on the right wing with Adrian Lopez moving to the bench. Gabi, Koke and Insua are a yellow card away from suspension.

Jose Mourinho has a few absentees for his trip to Spain. Branislav Ivanovic is unavailable for selection due to suspension. This means Cesar Azpilicueta will start at right-back , his natural position, and Ashley Cole will make his 4th Champions League appearance this season at left-back. Eden Hazard didn’t train with the team before leaving for Madrid and still remains a doubt for the match. Samuel Eto’o is another injury concern, with the Cameroonian not travelling with the team. Youngsters, Van Ginkel, Tomas Kalas and Nathan Ake were included in the 20 man squad, and a couple of them could make the bench.

Tactics

Both Chelsea and Atletico Madrid have been the most strongest defensive units in their respective leagues this season, conceding only 26 and 22 goals respectively. Their footballing theories mainly revolve around swift counterattacks and sturdy defensive shapes. Over two legs, this tie has a lot to offer in terms of entertainment and naturally, tactics. Diego Simeone and Jose Mourinho are astute managers who operate in more or less similar fashion. Both are proactive with their substitutions and they can go to any lengths to win a football match.

Mourinho has used the 4-2-3-1 formation in almost every match this season. With a stable and fixed backline, Mourinho set the agenda of not conceding a goal as top priority, since December. With Ashley Cole coming into the starting XI now, the dynamics of the Chelsea system will take a hit. Having a right-footed player at left-back has benefited John Terry a lot this season, and has been effective in curtailing the influence of inverted wingers. A more natural left-back in Ashley Cole, will put more pressure on Terry and increase his defensive duties, forcing Mourinho to balance the system elsewhere.

So he will be looking to use 4-3-3 instead, to have more numbers in midfield, and more importantly, shield his back four more effectively. With Nemanja Matic cup-tied, John Obi Mikel is the only natural holding midfielder in the squad. But the Nigerian has not been favored a lot this term. This brings us to the point of David Luiz. Though the Brazilian has not seen much time on the pitch this season, he has been vital when he was deployed in midfield. With relatively less defensive duties than when played in defense, Luiz is shaping up to be a good option in midfield. His natural tendency to play out from defense, is of great use from a more advanced position, as Chelsea get to extract all the good bits from him, negating his weakness. For this game, he will be instructed to sit deep in midfield, screen his defense, and mark David Villa in the process.

The 4-4-2 formation has been the hallmark of Diego Simeone for much of this season. He did change his team’s shape in the Champions League though, opting for a 4-2-3-1 in a few games. But, Atletico is expected to line up in a 4-4-2 on Tuesday. The prime feature of Simeone’s side is their tackling ability. Almost all players are adept in tackling and are well drilled to play organized football. They too rely heavily on counter attacks like Chelsea, with Diego Costa serving as their target man. They have a strong defense and probably the best keeper in the world at present, Thiabaut Courtois.

Formation Battles

Jose Mourinho probably, single-handedly destroyed the 4-4-2 during his first spell in England. His version of 4-3-3 was just too good for the English clubs who were 4-4-2 darlings from a long time. This season has seen the revival of the 4-4-2 in many variations. Man City use a highly-fluid attacking version, while Atletico Madrid have taken a more traditional approach. The 4-3-3 has a numerical advantage in the midfield against 4-4-2, and is more flexible when it comes to transitions. A slight tweak to the 4-4-2 will neutralize that advantage, but can make the match utterly boring.

David Villa almost always drops deep to make up numbers in midfield, to get the ball and aid in counters. It will be one of the key features of this match. Normally, it is a 3 v 2 situation in midfield in favor of Chelsea, with Luiz-Lampard-Ramires outnumbering Gabi-Tiago duo. When Villa drops deep, it becomes a 3 v 3, but results in a 2 v 1 situation ahead of him as Costa will take on Terry and Cahill. It is a similar situation at the other end with Torres against Godin and Miranda. So in terms of numbers, there is an even match-up in the middle and out wide on the wings.

Cesar Azpilicueta is an attacking fullback. On the left flank, he was more conservative, due to the positional limitations, and hence we couldn’t see him affecting attacks directly. Now, with him starting at right-back, his runs into advanced positions will provide Chelsea with an outlet, and a potential crossing option. Willian’s general tendency is to drift inwards from whichever flank he plays. In this match, he is expected to start on the right flank, so he will move infield, dragging either Filipe or Koke out of position. This gives license for Azpilicueta to bomb forward. Chelsea can also try and overload the right flank using Torres and Ramires. The latter is very good when played in a 4-3-3, and can make his trademark flash-runs during such overloads.

David Villa will be looking cause problems to the Chelsea defense.

Chelsea’s weak point will be its left flank, with a non-regular Ashley Cole at left-back beside John Terry. Atleti will try and exploit this weakness using Raul Garcia and David Villa. Garcia is a beast in the air, and Villa moves swiftly all over the pitch. Long balls aimed at this flank could be one of the attacking strategies of Simeone. The aerial balls towards Raul Garcia will probably drag David Luiz into the battle, leaving David Villa free. It will be upto either Lampard or Terry to mark Villa in that situation and neutralize the threat.

Midfielder, Tiago could be credited for Atletico’s robust defensive shape. The Portuguese’s role as a destroyer in midfield will play a crucial role against his former club, Chelsea. Tiago likes to sit in front of his defense and doesn’t allow players to run past him or play through-balls past him. Chelsea will try to unsettle him by overloading his space with runners in Willian and Ramires. Willian’s movement into central positions, and Torres dropping onto Tiago, will give a number advantage for Chelsea. But this gives just a minor edge for Chelsea. Tiago though, will be tested with some clever runs by the Chelsea wingers.

Andre Schurrle will have a big role, both in attack and defense.

If Hazard can only make the bench, Andre Schurrle will start on the left wing, his natural position. He is more comfortable when there is space to run into, but Atleti is not a team that gives such liberties. Nevertheless, Schurrle can be used as a direct attacking threat from the left wing, running with pace at Juanfran and Miranda. These runs will drag Gabi out of position, giving Lampard good space to run into. If Schurrle tries to cut in, he will be confronted by many red and white shirts, so he will try and link up with Lampard or sprint to the by-line and cut back into the box. Atletico conceded a goal to Barcelona in the first leg of quarters from a similar position. Juanfran was too wide and left Neymar free, who was found by Iniesta with a through-ball. If Eden Hazard starts, it will be a completely different story, as Atleti will have to deploy more resources to contain the Belgian, which means a numerical advantage for Chelsea in other areas of the pitch.