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#1 Barcelona to face Serie A giants Napoli
Barcelona had plenty to deal with in a Group of Death situation, yet came out on top with two matches to spare. Plenty was expected from Inter Milan and Borussia Dortmund, a pair of sides packed with quality and European pedigree to boot. Neither really justified such hype, instead being nullified by a mix of poor decision-making and good defending.
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Elsewhere, a refreshing dogged side to Barca's play emerged. They were not always easy on the eye, but crucially got the job done and survived waves of pressure that you wouldn't usually expect them to have recovered from, which leads me onto my following argument.
Why they can win?
Lionel Messi and Marc-Andre ter Stegen. Valverde has indispensable luxuries at his disposal: the world's best player and - argue at your peril - best goalkeeper too. Liverpool's Alisson Becker might have won the accolades after a great campaign for club and country, but Ter Stegen's excellent displays over numerous seasons means it's hard to look past the Germany international in that regard.
He makes difficult saves look easy with nonchalant ease, his distribution is brilliant and personifies the true meaning of a last line in defence. When all else fails, Barcelona can rely on their number-one to bail them out of trouble: something he's done on a handful of occcasions already this term. In five group stage games, the 27-year-old's made 17 saves - including a penalty stop to deny compatriot Marco Reus and a brilliant individual display to keep Slavia Prague at bay during their inspired home showing on match-day 3.
If not for his contributions, they would have easily lost both games and mathematically finished as group runners-up instead of Dortmund, who now face PSG for a quarter-final place. Given Napoli's recent club crisis, they should be thankful.
You can go on all day describing Messi's brilliance and how this truly is his team: unrecognisable without him in it, even when half-fit with no match sharpness, the Argentine occupies a variety of different positions to create from deep and importantly punish opposition defences with ruthless precision.
He's netted two goals and created three assists in four-and-a-half group games (Dortmund cameo on match-day 1), but those stats don't do his influence much justice either.
- Completed dribbles - 39
- Key passes - 14
- Hit woodwork and big chances missed - 6
Rested for a Champions League game when fully fit for the first time this decade for their 2-1 win over Inter on match-day 6, he would have been happy to see teenage prodigy Ansu Fati score a late winner, but there's no doubting who the main man is, even with Suarez on the decline and Antoine Griezmann keen to impress after his big-money move this past summer.
Why they will fall short?
Recent Champions League history has not been kind to Barca and 2020 will mark five years since their last triumph in the competition. Having suffered ridiculous comeback defeats by Roma and Liverpoool in successive seasons as they let seemingly unassailable leads (3-0, then 4-0) dramatically disappear away from Catalonia, many will suggest there's no reason why it cannot happen again.
They're not wrong. Barcelona, just like Real Madrid, possess a shaky backline that can be exploited by pacey attackers and fluid movement in-and-around the final third. Many teams have exposed this flaw over recent seasons, not least Juventus and PSG, who are widely regarded as dark horses to go all the way this season.
Samuel Umtiti has struggled to recapture his best form after troublesome injuries, while his compatriot Clement Lenglet remains frustratingly inconsistent despite being an impressive defender. It's unfair to suggest Gerard Pique be the sole saviour for their defensive woes either, after all, he turns 33 before they travel to Naples in the first leg and a lack of mobility means he too can be made vulnerable.
They've struggled in pivotal away games but so far this term, have proven a capability to grind out tricky results away from home - a goalless draw against Dortmund with a half-fit Messi, earning smash-and-grab wins against Slavia Prague and Inter Milan. Sure, it was the group stage and will not be memorable in the grand scheme of things, but nonetheless will stand Valverde's side in good stead for the future as a range of players displayed their capabilities to step up when called upon.
However, their biggest test is when they have to play without Messi entirely. Their over-reliance on the Argentine to do virtually everything creatively cannot be overlooked, especially when you judge the collective performance against Real in midweek. If he's injured or suspended and forced to miss a knockout match or two, can they cope?
