Match Preview: Bayern Munich vs Juventus

In what will be a hard-fought contest, Bayern are clear favourites. (Getty Images)

There is no doubt that the first quarterfinal between Bayern Munich and Juventus stands out among the four. Bayern have an unassailable 20-point lead domestically and Juventus are on course for a consecutive league title win with a safe 9-point lead over Napoli. This is effectively a contest between the best clubs of Germany and Italy.

Teams

Bayern, who won 4-1 in Turin when both sides last met in the 2009-10 season, rested key players in the 9-2 demolition of Hamburg. They are expected to line up in their usual 4-2-3-1 formation with Franck Ribery and Thomas Muller coming into the side along with Toni Kroos just off the striker. Javi Martinez is suspended, which means Luiz Gustavo is expected to form the midfield axis along with Bastian Schweinsteiger. Philipp Lahm, Daniel van Buyten, Dante and David Alaba complete the backline. Mario Mandzukic is expected to play upfront, but Jupp Heynckes has the liberty to choose Mario Gomez or Claudio Pizarro, who scored four and set up two goals in the weekend’s rout.

Juventus on the other hand, won a tough, scrappy match against Inter 2-1. Antonio Conte rested Mirko Vucinic, who played both games for Montenegro, and Stephan Lichsteiner. Both are expected to return to starting 11. With Bayern’s team pretty much predictable, the match will be decided by Conte’s team selection. Juventus are the only team left in the Champions League who play three at the back on a regular basis.

The expected lineups are as follows:

Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1): Manuel Neuer; Philipp Lahm, Daniel Van Buyten, Dante, David Alaba; Bastian Schweinsteiger, Luis Gustavo; Franck Ribery, Toni Kroos, Thomas Mueller; Mario Mandzukic

Juventus (3-5-2): Gianluigi Buffon; Andrea Barzagli, Leonardo Bonucci, Giorgio Chiellini; Andrea Pirlo, Stephan Lichsteiner, Arturo Vidal, Claudio Marchisio, Kwadwo Asamoah; Alessandro Matri, Mirko Vucinic.

Midfield battleBoth sides are very much proactive sides and dominate the possession table in their respective leagues. The key battle though is between Pirlo and Kroos, similar to the Euro 12 semifinal. Kroos wasn’t able to do an effective job then, which resulted in Pirlo exerting his influence on the game and hitting diagonals to Balotelli. Pirlo will try do the same here with his accurate long balls to either flank, and whether Kroos nullifies Pirlo’s effect (similar to Oscar’s role in Chelsea vs Juventus group stage) will probably define the outcome of the match.

Andrea Pirlo of Juventus could play a huge part in controlling the midfield battle. (Getty Images)

Another interesting topic is whether Conte starts Pogba or Lichsteiner on Juve’s right flank. While Pogba’s inclusion would add a physical dimension to Juve’s midfield, Lichsteiner is likely to start the match and track Ribery’s runs. Vidal vs Gustavo and Marchisio vs Schweinsteiger completes the midfield battles. Juventus are more likely to form a relatively low defensive block than usual as they have done against stronger teams this season.

Ribery the key man?With both midfields nullifying each other on paper, one area where Bayern have numerical advantage over Juventus is the flanks. Juventus depend on their wing backs for width in attack, which means Bayern can cause problems on the counter with a 2 v 1 advantage. Both Bayern fullbacks – Lahm and Alaba – are attack-minded, which also helps Bayern in this sense. While Muller usually stays higher up the pitch, almost as second striker, Ribery stays wide and his direct runs towards the goal are likely to cause problems to Juventus.

Prediction

Both teams appear even in all departments, which makes this an intriguing contest. However, external factors like the home advantage to Bayern and Juventus playing a tough match against Inter in the weekend, shift the balance in Bayern’s favor. This will be a close contest. 2-1 to Bayern.