Bolton: Trotters’ title value?

Okay, I’m going to stick my neck firmly on the chopping block here and state that Bolton is a good value bet to take the Championship title. If you have a look at all the different odds available with the various bookies, they are a best-priced 12/1 with some of them at the time of writing.

To me, that represents good value given the way the club finished last season, the way they played at Burnley, and the signings Dougie Freedman made during the close season.

Of course, no one can say they will win the title, but you can say it represents anomalously good value if you’re as optimistic about our chances as many Bolton fans are. I also think the market is unfairly distorted by the whole Harry Redknapp / QPR “factor”. QPR is currently a ridiculously short price to win the title – as low as 5/1.

But we know from history that the Championship is usually a close-run thing and a very difficult division to win simply by spending money – or thinking that you really “should” be winning it!

Free money bonus bet

So anyone who wants to throw their money away making such bets is welcome to do so – and they may just come off. But it certainly isn’t my idea of a value bet. You’d be better off going to a casino, taking on a big welcome bonus like at www.ukcasino-club.co.uk, for example, and backing red at roulette to see if you can double up your free cash!

Seriously, with the sorts of introductory bonuses websites like casino club offer, it’s something of a no-brainer for those of us who enjoy a punt.

And if you manage to double up your free cash, The Trotters could be worth a wager at 12/1 – or at around 7/2 to be promoted. Last year’s heartbreaking finish to the season could actually work out well for the club in the longer term; promotion could have been too far, too soon, in other words.

The right man at the helm

I think that Dougie Freedman will prove himself to be an excellent manager over the longer term. He didn’t really put a foot wrong when he was at the helm at Selhurst Park and when you bear in mind that he’s still only 39 years old, you realize then he still has lot to learn.

But he’s certainly heading in the right direction and at Bolton, he really has a great chance to prove himself to be the next great Scottish Manager in a long line of predecessors. He reminds me, in many ways, of David Moyes who was in a similar position at Preston North End (then Everton) just over a decade ago. Of course, we wish Mr. Moyes all the worst at Old Trafford – despite the fact that he’s a nice chap!

As we know, Dougie Freedman was the Championship’s Manager of the Month in April – and if he is again a couple of times this season, as I fully expect him to be, you won’t be able to grab that 12/1 for very long.

It’s well worth a bit of a gamble with money you can afford to lose in my opinion. It all adds a little spice to what promises to be a superb season.