Can an elite striker win you the Premier League? An in-depth analysis

With the summer upon us and the transfer rumour mill constantly turning, two of the more talked-about players in the Premier League are the league’s two most prolific strikers – Romelo Lukaku of Everton and Harry Kane of Tottenham Hotspur. Kane finished the 2016/17 season as the league’s top scorer with 29 goals in 30 games, while Lukaku finished just behind him on 25.

The rumours that have flown around have involved Lukaku moving to Chelsea for a potential world-record fee, and while the suggestion that Kane might leave Tottenham is more tenuous, a great number of observers have suggested that Manchester United should make a multi-million-pound bid for him. In both cases, the idea seems to be that the signing of a marquee striker like Kane or Lukaku could be the key to one of those sides winning the Premier League in 2017/18.

But can one player really make that much difference? Well, it’s happened before. In 2012, to be exact.

Robin Van Persie’s move to Manchester United from Arsenal remains baffling

It’s still one of the most curious and baffling transfers of the modern Premier League era, and almost five years on from the event it still confuses a lot of fans, myself included. The question still remains; in August 2012, what possessed Arsenal to sell Robin Van Persie – not only their top scorer in the 2011/12 season but the top scorer in the Premier League overall – to their most bitter rivals, Manchester United, effectively handing them the league title for 2012/13?

It’s still baffling today – especially when you take into account the impact Van Persie had at United. He played all 38 of United’s league games that season and scored a phenomenal 26 goals – more than a goal every other game – again winning the Premier League Golden Boot. But did Van Persie really have that much of an impact on the points earned by United? Or was he – like some have recently accused Romelo Lukaku of being – a flat-track bully whose goals didn’t make much difference anyway in terms of points?

In a word, the answer to that question is that for United, RVP probably had more impact than any single player in winning them the league since Eric Cantona’s one-man show back in 1995/96. Yep, even more than the likes of Ruud Van Nistelrooy, Wayne Rooney and Cristiano Ronaldo. The stats don’t lie. Of United’s 38 league games, the results of 14 were changed beyond any reasonable doubt due to Van Persie’s goals.

Some of the results are astonishing. A 3-2 victory against Southampton was made possible purely by a Van Persie hat-trick – the final goal coming in the last minute of the game. Later in the month, United beat bitter rivals Liverpool 2-1, with Van Persie scoring the winner in the 81^st minute from the penalty spot. He scored the lone goal to defeat West Ham in a game in November, and then in December scored the winner in a 3-2 win over Manchester City with an injury time penalty.

He barely slowed down throughout the season, too. The return game with West Ham in April saw Van Persie rescue a point for United with a late equaliser to make the game 2-2. Aston Villa were dispatched later that month via an RVP hat-trick. And points against Arsenal and West Bromwich Albion were also rescued because of the Dutchman.

All in all – and I know it’s a crude method, but run with it – Van Persie was at least partially responsible for 25 of United’s 89 points that season. They won the league by a clear margin of nine over Man City, but if you take away any points that Van Persie was involved with, it would’ve put United on a much lesser 64, sliding them all the way down to 6^th place, below Tottenham and above Everton!

Obviously, the math doesn’t make total sense, but even if you allow for other players scoring instead, it’s probably a safe bet that without Van Persie, United wouldn’t have won the league.

But who would? Could Van Persie have won the league for Arsenal as he did for his new club?

Arsenal finished 4^th in 2012/13 with 73 points; while RVP had been their top scorer the season before, they went into 2012/13 spearheaded by Lukas Podolski, Olivier Giroud and Theo Walcott. Walcott finished as their top scorer with 14 goals – just over half of RVP’s haul for United. And more to the point, when looking at their results, there were seven games that saw Arsenal draw a total blank, unable to find the net at all.

Add those 25 points that Van Persie helped to contribute to United’s total onto Arsenal’s, and they would’ve won the league at a canter. Even if you add some goals onto those seven goalless games – making the draws into wins, and losses into draws – you end up with an extra 11 points, which would’ve made the Gunners, the Premier League champions.

Obviously, that method has a hell of a lot of flaws; for all we know, had RVP stayed with Arsenal, he could’ve spent the majority of the season on the treatment bench like so many others at the Emirates have done. But his influence was so huge at United that year that it’s hard not to wonder.

So essentially, Van Persie was the key to allowing United, not Arsenal to win the league in 2012/13. He was’t the first, however. Rewind to just over fifteen years prior – 1995/96 to be exact – and one Eric Cantona had a similar impact in inspiring United to their third Premier League title in four seasons.

Suspended for the first two months of the season due to the infamous ‘kung fu kick’ incident of 1995, Cantona only came back into United’s team in October. His actual goal return wasn’t a huge number – 14 in 30 starts in the league. But it was his influence and his crucial goals that made him so important to the Red Devils’ title challenge.

Using the same method as for Van Persie, Cantona was responsible for 17 of United’s 82 points, but more importantly his goals were responsible for five 1-0 victories, including one over second-placed Newcastle United. Remove Cantona from United’s equation in 1995/96, and there’s no way they would ever have overhauled the Geordies– who led by 12 points in January.

United weren’t a one-man team, but until Van Persie’s 2012/13 season it could be argued no other single player had such an influence on a title win.

After the Red Devils overhauled them in 1995/96 to win the Premier League, Newcastle’s manager Kevin Keegan decided that bringing in another elite striker – arguably the world’s best at that point – was the thing to make the difference. And in the summer of 1996, he broke the world transfer record to sign Alan Shearer from Blackburn Rovers for £15m.

In 1994/95, Shearer had scored 34 league goals to help Blackburn win the title, and while the side had slipped in 1995/96, he’d still hit the mark 31 times.

For Newcastle, Shearer was equally prolific, scoring 25 goals in 31 starts in the league in 1996/97. And yet the Magpies still finished second behind United. Only a fool would deny that Shearer’s goals had an impact on Newcastle, but exactly how much is somewhat questionable. He only helped them to two 1-0 victories – over Derby County and Leeds United, and while his hat-trick allowed them to defeat Leicester City 4-3, the majority of his goals were either scored in losses or in multiples in larger victories.

In fact, his goals were responsible for 15 of Newcastle’s 68 points, two less than Cantona’s for United in the previous season despite scoring over double the amount. They did allow Newcastle to claim second place over Arsenal and Liverpool on goal difference, but they still weren’t enough to win the Geordies the league.

Essentially, it shows that it’s not always about the number of goals scored, but how crucial those goals are. A single goal that leads a side to a 1-0 victory is obviously more valuable than a brace in a 3-2 loss.

So where do we stand with Lukaku and Kane today?

It’s an interesting question.

Firstly, Lukaku. Sure, his return of 25 goals sounds excellent, but to look at the stats in more detail is fascinating. The Belgian only scored what would be considered a “winning” goal for Everton once – his hat-trick early in the season against eventually relegated Sunderland. And while a lone goal from Lukaku ensured Everton took a draw rather than a point twice (against Crystal Palace and Man City) both times his goal put Everton in the lead rather than handing them an equaliser.

Take away Lukaku’s goals in fact, and the Toffees would only have lost eight points, which would’ve still left them in seventh position. It’s nothing like the work of Van Persie in 2012/13. So would he be worth it for Chelsea? Only time will tell.

Chelsea didn’t struggle to score goals in 2016/17, banging in 85, which suggests that a player of Lukaku’s ilk – capable of scoring a lot of goals, but perhaps not crucial ones – would be useful for them. But then again, Chelsea won by just one goal eleven times in the season and six of those winners were scored by the possibly outgoing Diego Costa. Could Lukaku do the same? The jury is out.

What about Kane?

While it’s true that the England skipper scored seven goals in Tottenham’s final two games against Leicester and Hull to claim the Golden Boot, his earlier goals were of much importance to Spurs. Take them away and Tottenham would’ve been 12 points worse off, and would’ve suffered draws rather than wins against Sunderland, Middlesbrough, and Manchester United, and would’ve outright lost to West Ham and Everton. Minus those 12 points, they would’ve finished sixth and missed out on the Champions League.

United on the other hand outright drew a blank eight times in 2016/17. And while Zlatan Ibrahimovic scored 17 in the league and was relatively prolific, he didn’t come close to Kane in the goalscoring stakes. United missed the Champions League spots by just seven points – it isn’t too much of a stretch to suggest that with Kane there, they could’ve gained those seven points and usurped Liverpool to take 4^th at least.

In conclusion, then? Robin Van Persie in 2012/13, like Eric Cantona in 1995/96, proved that an elite striker capable of scoring crucial goals can certainly be the difference between a side winning the league and missing out on it. But Alan Shearer’s 25 goals were unable to lead Newcastle to the title in 1996/97, suggesting that crucial goals are the most important factor, rather than simply goals in large number.

As for Lukaku and Kane? It’s impossible to tell really, but the stats would suggest that Lukaku could well have a positive influence on a side like Chelsea, but while he may score a lot of goals, he may not be the key to winning the league.

Harry Kane, on the other hand, has the capability of scoring the type of match-changing goals that a Van Persie did just five years ago. For Tottenham’s sake, they need to go the opposite way that their great rivals did and ensure they keep him at Wembley.