Carrick Crisis: Why Medel could torment Manchester United

Michael Carrick

Talk to a lot of people about Manchester United’s midfield in recent years and there’s a fair chance you’ll have been subjected to the argument that it’s a one man band held together by Michael Carrick. It’s a familiar story – Michael Carrick calmly does his thing in the middle of the park, going about his business whilst a revolving cast of disappointing wingers, the elderly and the occasional young pretender run about in front him. Take Carrick out of that and the midfield looks like an expensively assembled group of ill-equipped backing dancers. A bit like the Pussycat Dolls would be without Nicole Scherzinger.

So given that Carrick is side-lined by an Achilles problem for the next five weeks, how will David Moyes’s midfield cope without the England midfielder? The talent of the rest of the Manchester United is often dismissed too quickly – a crime I’ve probably committed in the preceding paragraph – but there’s no denying that the formerTottenham man is the key midfield player. That probably makes it a bad time to come up against a man who has made the sixth highest number of passes in the league, despite being at a Cardiff City side that are 16th in terms of pass accuracy, Gary Medel.

Medel turned in an impressive display for Chile against England last week, albeit from centre-back, and was rated high enough by his manager Malkay Mackay to be signed on the spot at half-time when Mackay saw him play in Rio Ferdinand’s testimonial. Mackay has since said; “His reading of a game is magnificent, his touch, calmness on the ball and pass completion rate in first class. Gary doesn’t give the ball away. To compete at Premier League plus international levels and rarely give the ball away means you are a top player.”

Medel Pass Stats 2013/14

A 92% pass accuracy over the season backs up Mackay’s words. Only Yaya Toure,Steven Gerrard, Aaron Ramsey, Carrick and John Terry have completed more passes than Medel this season, and all of those players play for top sides used to keeping possession. Medel’s importance to Cardiff is underlined by the fact that he accounts for 18% of their successful passes from his holding midfield position. Against Fulham in September Medel made an astounding 99% of his passes, misplacing only one. The misplaced one was a – perhaps forgivable – attempt at a crossfield Hollywood pass, shown in red on the map below.

Medel Passing v Fulham

Most of Cardiff’s play goes through the man nicknamed “the Pitbull.” He sits in front of the back-four, picking up the ball and distributing it to his teammates. His Heat Map from Cardiff’s last home game shows the deep positions picked up, and the Chilean is likely to be similarly deep against United. This may allow him to provide his side with a shield to prevent service from the midfield towards Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie.

Medel Heat Map v Swansea City

Any sloppiness in possession from United’s central midfield is also likely to be punished, as the Chilean is adept at picking up loose balls in the area around his own area. This means that United will have to be wary of Medel releasing Cardiff’s wide players on the counter.

In the absence of Carrick there may be more loose balls for the former Sevilla midfielder, and it is very likely that there will be more space to exploit. Famed at Squawka HQ for his interceptions statistics, Carrick’s reading of the game allows him to intercept the ball, relieve pressure on his defence and keep the side’s shape. Neither Maroune Fellaini nor Tom Cleverley - his potential replacements – excel at this.

Carrick Defensive Actions Breakdown (Average 7 per game)

Whilst Carrick has made 40 interceptions over the season, Fellaini has managed 10 and Cleverley just eight. He also averages more defensive actions per game (seven) than both Fellaini (three) and Cleverley (two), meaning that United may be lacking defensive cover. If Medel can get on the ball, then he may be able to pull United’s midfield out of shape somewhat easier than if Carrick were playing due to the absence of their main defensive midfield lynchpin.

Of course this is all a big if. Whilst Medel is a good player, with impressive passing statistics, he is still playing for a side that will always enter a game with Manchester United as the underdogs. Medel is not a box-to-box midfielder and while he can dictate tempo when his side have the ball, he is reliant upon his attacking teammates to create and take chances. A sign of the deep-lying position he occupies, Medel has yet to create a chance for Cardiff this season whilst he is also goalless.

As a team, Cardiff have a pass accuracy of 77% – fifth bottom in the league standings. Given that 18% of their passes have been completed by the 92% accuracy Medel, the rest of Cardiff’s squad are averaging a lowly 73.7% pass accuracy. The Welsh side will need a resilient defensive display and some luck in front of goal, but in Medel they possess a man capable of providing the solid foundations that the rest of the side need. They head into the game as underdogs, but may secretly fancy view the game as a good opportunity to pick up another scalp following their win over Manchester City.