Champions League: The numbers game

With the Champions League games this week, sixteen teams are in contention for the remaining ten spots. Unusually though, only one English team has qualified and the other three will look to secure qualification this week. We’ve crunched the numbers this week and before presenting the final list, let’s have a look at the groups.

Group ABayern Munich are through while Napoli will be through with any result except a loss or draw to Villareal (and City winning in both cases). Villareal have lost all 5 of their matches so far. Looks good for Napoli!

Group BInter are through while CSKA, Trabzonspor and Lille can all qualify.

Group CBenfica are through while Manchester United need a point. Basel need a win. Otelul are out.

Group DReal are through. Ajax will only be out if Lyon win and Ajax lose, and the combined margins of victory have to be at least seven.In short, Ajax can book their tickets.

Group ELeverkusen are in the knockout phase. Chelsea need a win. A 0-0 draw will do as long as Leverkusen don’t lose. Valencia just need to win or draw (at least 1-1 to be sure). Genk are out.

Group FArsenal are the only English club in the knockout phase at this stage, and that too as group winners. Marseille are through if they win or if they get more points than Olympiakos today. There are some complications that can lead to Dortmund qualifying as well, but that’s so unlikely we’ll leave it out (at least a 5-0 win against Marseille and a draw for Olympiakos).

Group GAPOEL are through. Zenit and Porto can both make it, but Zenit look the likelier of the two to progress. Porto need to win to qualify.

Group HBarcelona first, AC Milan second. Plzen and BATE out. As it should be.

* – Ajax's probability is not mathematically accurate, but close enough. Chelsea's is slightly lower than it should be and therefore, Valencia's slightly higher.