Champions League’s pretenders and contenders

Have a Break

This group is comprised of the sides that could do some damage, but will need a lucky draw to have a chance at winning the competition. They will also need breaks in the form of scheduling and injuries to the other team. They need to be taken seriously, but the likelihood for success is not super high.

Chelsea could have done better than Samuel Eto’o

Topping this list is Chelsea. For me, Chelsea could have been the second best side in the world and the kings of England if they had signed a world class striker this summer. Instead, they settled for Samuel Eto’o and send their only prospect off on loan in Romelu Lukaku. Chelsea added depth in midfield when they didn’t need to and passed on strikers where they were in need. It was a bit perplexing to say the least. What is worse is Juan Mata appears to have fallen out of favour with newly rehired Jose Mourinho. He has been their best player the past few seasons. They went from a team that had it all together to a team with more questions than answers.

Borussia Dortmund would come next, and yes, they have fallen this far in my eyes. They just lack the depth to sustain another deep run. They should have been knocked out by Malaga last season, if not for some poor officiating. I think everyone will see them coming this year, so they will need a good draw. The key for them will be match ups. If they catch Real Madrid they could get by them, but Barcelona would give them nightmares. Real would allow them to have the ball, which suits their style. Barca would not. They defined this group last season and put down the blueprint for how to get it done. They drew well in the first two rounds of the knockout stage, got officiating help, and drew Real Madrid. They got the one off final with Bayern, but just could not pull off one more win.

PSG would come next. I think up front they can hang with anyone, but the back-line and the loss of a totally class manager will be their undoing. I don’t think any top side will like to draw against them, but in a two legged match they would rarely be the favourite against the teams already listed. It’s hard to see them getting to the final, but they have the talent on paper. This year might show improvement, but the league start has been unimpressive. If that is any indication of problems, this team is in trouble.

Pure Pretenders

These are the teams that are traditional powers but lack quality right now. There are also a few that create a false sense of quality and have their supporters believing they are better than what they are.

Arsenal comes first for me in this group. Ozil was a massive pick-up, but who is the clutch goal scorer for this team? Arsenal would be perfect with a Luis Suarez, but they could not land him. I think they will be tougher out than last year and could go deeper into the tournament. They could also upset a side as I have already discussed, but winning the tournament is not in the cards. Attacking midfielders cannot score enough goals to win a competition like this. You need that leader who can get you goals over the course of the tournament. Arsenal tend to play musical chairs with their key players, and then suddenly in important situations, nobody turns up to score goals.

Napoli will likely be forced to face reality in the next round. They don’t have enough striking power or quality depth to hang with any of the bigger sides. They could trouble any team in the tournament and they may be better than last year, but I know that Gonzalo Higuain is headed for the trainer’s table at some point. When it does happen, who gets them goals?

AC Milan expect to be better this year, but I don’t put a lot of faith in a side containing Mario Balotelli in a two legged tie. I have to assume that any first rate side will pester Super Mario and push his buttons if they need to and he will combust, you can bank on it. Milan look good on paper, but upfront Stephan El Shaarawy tends to play worse besides Balotelli instead of benefiting from his obvious skills. This side may need another year before they can really contend.

Atletico Madrid are finally in the biggest tournament in the world, but they are drowning without superstar Radamel Falcao. David Villa has something to prove, but he will not be able to do it alone. Injuries are already starting to plague a side that is not very deep to begin with. Unless they are hiding a Fernando Torres Jr. on the bench, they will be lucky to get out of the group stage.

Sadly, it is likely to be a three horse race and the top dogs are familiar to us all. I am always looking for an upset, but class usually wins in two legged ties and the top three teams have a few things in common; talent, depth and bags of experience. In the end, the only real risk they are faced with is bad scheduling and the one leg final. A major flaw in the UCL is the Tuesday-Wednesday flip flop game scheduling, especially late in the tournament. In the semi-finals, teams are forced to play on Wednesday then league play on Saturday and then back on Tuesday, it leaves them at a major disadvantage. Just ask Barcelona. In 2012, their Chelsea semi-final had a league deciding Classico sandwiched in the middle. Poor scheduling may have cost them the league and a final.

Also, it is imperfect to play a tournament for six months where you give teams extra chances to survive in all stages, but finish with a one-off final match. While I realise a single game final is a ratings bonanza and a two legged final could be far less dramatic, you are decreasing the chance of the best team winning. Is it good for football if the best team does not win? It is an age old question, but I will finish with this.

Even the 3rd round qualifying and play-off rounds are two legged affairs, so how could the final not be? Despite this, I would imagine the tournament will live up to its reputation. In the last two seasons, Chelsea have been an unexpected winner and Dortmund has made the final, which added to the drama. Both finals were full of excitement and fans were left begging for more.

Let’s get on with it!