David Moyes – To sack or not to sack?

Points per game vs Wage bill.

In addition to estimating manager performance, the paper also develops a ‘bootstrap’ method to determine when a manager should be sacked. The methodology ignores the first 10 games, called the ‘honeymoon period’ by one author, in assessing the manager performance, as this is deemed too small a time period for a manager to establish himself and also to gauge his abilities in terms of winning football games. This analysis reveals that the initial period for a new manager, even the good ones, is relatively rockier than the subsequent calm phase.

This is something that does not surprise many people. But successful/good managers are able to settle into their jobs with 10-20 games of taking charge and the performance after that period tends to stabilize. The results go as far as to conclude that upon failing to stabilize the performance to an expected level within that period, managers ‘are virtually never able to turn things around’.

The numbers in this case may be carrying valuable information about what happens at a football club that performs below expectations for a half a season under new management. This would suggest that sacking a mid-table manager who started with 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses in his first 10 games after he has put together a run of 3 wins and 4 draws in his next 7 games is an extremely bad idea. This is because he has settled in his job and is performing as expected, even though the points total reads 20 points from 17 games. Liverpool would have made a terrible decision had they sacked Brendan Rodgers after the start he had last season. And this is not just in retrospect; this information would have been available in real time.

David Moyes – To sack or not to sack, that is the question:

Manchester United have the 3rd highest payroll in the Barclays Premier League, the first two being Manchester City and Chelsea. To a casual observer, that alone indicates that under no condition should the manager miss a champions league spot (Top four in the premier league) and keep his job. United have played 40 competitive games this season and have won only 22 of those. That is well below the expected level, given the resources at his disposal. He is well past the 10 game point in his season, so, that argument cannot be made either. Recovery rates upon reaching the point that Moyes has reached in his short time at United are low, almost zero.

There are not many reasons to believe that he will be able to steer United out of their current predicament. And that need not be taken as an assertion that Moyes is a bad manager and that is why he needs to be sacked. All that it really means is that he has breached the statistical point of no return. Because only 7 managers out of 60 performed below expectations, time is only to be provided in order to improve in the bracket that a certain club belongs to. So a high wage bill club is competing with a high wage bill club and threshold is set at the minimum desired level of performance, which in this case is a top 4 finish.

Now, that does not mean that there is no chance that Moyes will be able to fix this, but it would be irrational to think that he will be able to. A person should not play the lotto. Not because there is a zero chance of winning, but because the chance to win the lottery is so little given all the information that we have about it, that it becomes irrational to pursue that route. It would make very little sense to sack David Moyes 11 games from the end of the season, whether or not United intend to keep him long term.

It can be seen as a second chance at the first impression, statistically speaking. If he has not reached the expected level – top four over the last 11 games, he should be gone. I personally do not expect him to get to that level. But it would, strictly, be a business decision. As a fan, I want him out yesterday. But when I’m a fan, I have biases – cognitive and otherwise.

As the chief executive at Manchester United, I would have a contingency plan in place, which can be effected at the beginning of June. I would call the contingency plans Klopp, Simeone and Conte. These are, strictly speaking, sound business options approved in management classes at the best business school of the world. And being the accountant that Ed Woodward, the Manchester United chief executive, is, he should be aware of this given how big a part this is of his job.

I will not make a qualitative case for sacking of Moyes, as those have been made aplenty and all his shortcomings have been listed and explained in great detail already. Many of those are the ones that I agree to. But a style of play argument cannot account for all the variations in performance. Making a case based on that would mean suggesting that choosing an attacking style of play is better than a defensive one when trying to win a game, and there is very little evidence to suggest that to be the case. But there can be right and wrong styles.

Those are based on a particular team’s capability to play a certain style. A case for keeping or sacking a manager based on that can be made. That is, strictly speaking, a measurable managerial ability. A manager who has been sacked is not necessarily a bad manager. It can just mean that he is in the wrong situation, either of his own making or through external factors. Many a great football managers have been sacked, it is not always indicative of ability. I do not believe Moyes to be a ‘great’ manager, but he has been a very good manager for the last 10-12 years and that has not changed in the last 10 months. He will find success again, but it is unlikely to be with Manchester United, I’m afraid.

Links to the papers mentioned in this article:

1. Does manager turnover improve performance ?

2. The performance of football club managers: skill or luck ?