Do Arsenal really need Luis Suarez when they have Lukas Podolski in their ranks?

Lukas Podolski

I asked the question of twitter recently about what fans see in store for Lukas Podolski this season. Many see him as only a super sub but an equal number see him have a growing influence in 2013/14. He is one of the most accomplished international strikers of his generation and yet it would appear he is set to be a squad player for Arsenal, a team that are not currently challenging for any honours.

Everyone is desperate for Suarez to arrive and add more bite to our attack. Giroud, bagging them in for fun in pre-season, and a now fully-fit Podolski are now considered to be only good enough to be squad players at best by many.

More bite to the Arsenal attack?

Now as usual, I must add the proviso that I always do at this point, and say I am NOT against Arsenal strengthening the team at all. Indeed, I am very keen as all fans are that we do so. At the same time, I feel we sometimes forget or undervalue what we currently have. I also feel we sometimes overlook certain problem areas and concentrate on the super striker too much.

It is my contention for example that for a first season in a new league, far more physical and competitive than Ligue 1, Olivier Giroud did pretty well.

His goals were valuable and his assists a huge influence and yet his critics solely focused on his profligacy in front of goal. Interestingly, his accuracy in the Premier League was slightly worse than that of Luis Suarez. Giroud hit the target 49% of the time and the supposed £40 million striker 54%- a marginal difference.

So what of the team joker Lukas Podolski who now freely admits to playing through pain the majority of last season? A player who many forget was playing up and down the left flank and combining superbly with Cazorla tight up until the New Year. The player who single-handedly destroyed West Ham with one of the finest individual displays by any Gunner last season.

Just in case those who argue that the German is okay but not a game changer, here is a reminder of a fully fit Podolski at his best in that match:

Coming back to the accuracy point Lukas’s efforts were on target on 61% of occasions in the league last season, which in case you are interested is two points better than van Persie.

When we have a player like this with ice in his veins in front of goal, surely the logical policy would be to put him in that position as often as possible. Not all of the great strikers were game changers in other areas. The likes of Cole, Fowler, Own and Shearer hardly racked up numbers in the assist column. Podolski, however, does both so can we truly afford to marginalize such a player?

The reality is he has been marginalized by Arsenal but before that by his country. Germany and Podolski thrived in a 4-4-2 in which Lukas played off and around Klose.

However, in the past three years, the general trend of moving to the 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 has been mirrored by Germany, leaving Podolski as a left striker/winger. How many players in the past 4/5 years have found themselves struggling when teams have gone from two to one central striker systems?

Fabulous in a 4-4-2 for sure

In a season crucial to so many players hoping to make World Cup squads game time and performances will be crucial but I suspect none more so than in the case of Podolski.

With so much talent available to the German coach, Lukas will need to be showing that he is fully fit and back to his pre ankle problem best to maintain his squad place at least, and add to his huge cap and goal tally. At 28 he should be in his absolute striking prime and yet so many think of him as past his best. This is purely because he hit the world scene so dramatically at such a young age.

It is a struggle to see exactly where he will play and where he will fit this campaign though. If Fabregas is indeed arriving we have to assume Cazorla will continue out wide in a position that in the early part of last season the German had made his own.

Even if Cesc does not return Wenger does seem to feel Wilshere may be an attacking central midfielder, so again you simply cannot see our most creative influence not playing.

I don’t have the solutions and thankfully the decisions are not mine but I would just ask fans to recall that Arsenal’s play, our team set up and the outcome, was not about one striker hitting 30 goals. We should not think just because RVP did it that is the answer. It is 100% not the answer and as I have argued previously since 2006 we have suffered due to over reliance on one individual.

Luis Suarez

I have always been of the view that the teams that win trophies and ultimately the Premier League have a multiple goal threat. Despite the fact that history will always focus on 2003/4, for me the greatest attacking football I have ever seen was in the 2001/2 Double-winning season.

Arsenal had goals from everywhere. We have five players in double figures in all competitions which has never been matched to my knowledge. Even in the league we finished with three in double figures, Henry 24, Ljungberg 12, Wiltord 10 and then Pires and Bergkamp on nine each.

Surely, a side that can offer that sort of multiple threats would win silverware today? Well interestingly only two sides this century have finished the Premier League campaign with four players in double figures. The first was the title winning Chelsea team of 2010/11 with Malouda 13, Drogba 12, Lampard 10 and Kalou 10. 45 goals from four attacking players, which is mighty impressive we would all agree.

It has only been done on one other occasion at that was in 2012/13 by Arsenal. Yes you read correctly. Walcott 14, Cazorla 12, Podolski 11 and Giroud 10. 47 league goals from four attacking players all of whom where in our first choice 11 for the bulk of last season, certainly until February when Podolski was not.

Surprising perhaps then that most fans feel we are crying out for a new striker and some suggest we need two.

The table below also strongly suggests that over a league season Arsenal’s attempts on goal or crucially the accuracy and ratio of chances taken are not necessarily our issue:

Club	Attempts on target	Shots on goal	Goals	Ratio
Manchester United	237 (56,7%)	418	86	20,6%
Chelsea	200 (50,0%)	400	75	18,8%
Arsenal	210 (52,4%)	401	72	18,0%
Reading	110 (44,0%)	250	43	17,2%
Aston Villa	145 (51,6%)	281	47	16,7%
West Bromwich Albion	157 (48,6%)	323	53	16,4%
Fulham	166 (53,4%)	311	50	16,1%
Sunderland	137 (51,7%)	265	41	15,5%
Norwich City	122 (44,9%)	272	41	15,1%
Liverpool	236 (49,8%)	474	71	15,0%
Manchester City	232 (51,2%)	453	66	14,6%
Wigan Athletic	158 (48,9%)	323	47	14,6%
West Ham United	149 (47,6%)	313	45	14,4%
Southampton	170 (49,6%)	343	49	14,3%
Everton	204 (52,2%)	391	55	14,1%
Tottenham Hotspur	247 (52,6%)	470	66	14,0%
Swansea City	167 (48,4%)	345	47	13,6%
Stoke City	121 (45,8%)	264	34	12,9%
Newcastle United	178 (49,6%)	359	45	12,5%
Queens Park Rangers	140 (43,9%)	319	30	9,4%

Only five teams had more efforts on goal than Arsenal last season but actually only Manchester United, the champions and Chelsea converted more of the chances they created.

I would argue further then that the issue is not the attacking players we have. It may just be the quality of the chance we are creating. What do I mean by that?

Well, it is telling I feel that the four players who managed to score 10 or more times for Arsenal in the league also provide us with our main goal creativity. Carzola 12, Walcott 10 and Podolski 9 created nearly half of our tally of 72.

This is all well and good but the concern is that if we look at those who played the majority of the games for us in the midfield three, with the exception of Santi, when he was there is little to no creativity in the goal assist stakes at least.

Arteta, Ramsey, Wilshere and Rosicky managed 9 assist between them over a season in which the four features in 117 matches. Surely for a team looking to win title, this is simply unacceptable?

No supply line for CM is an issue

So as I meander along I think I am finally arriving at the point I probably set up to make. Are our strikers failing? Not necessarily, but as a team are we creating enough truly good scoring opportunities for them? Almost certainly not the evidence suggests.

Assuming we maintain the same formation, not a definite, whoever is given the primary responsibility of the central attacking midfield role and also that of the more advances of the two pivots has to step up their game in 2013/14. For me with all things being equal and with no additions that means Cazorla back at the creative hub and a fully fit Podolski back our wide left.

However all things will not stay the same and I have a very strong suspicion that Arsenal will have a new man at the helm pulling the strings and it is this role not the prolific striker signing that provides the key to success.

I will welcome a new striker to compete with Podolski and Giroud, whether it be Suarez , Rooney or another we don’t know about as yet. But however individually brilliant this new addition is and how much our incumbants improve, which they will, they will all need an improved, innovative and more accurate supply line.

When the supply line is accurate, the half chances become gilt edged chances, the 50% of chances taken becomes 60/65%, the 10/15 goals becomes 15/20 and dare I say it fourth becomes 1st.

We need that player who plays the trough ball to die for, the chip to land on a sixpence and the reverse pass to bamboozle the best defence.

Who do we need?