Do referees add more time when big teams are losing?

#1 UEFA Super Cup: Real Madrid vs Sevilla. Madrid trailing by 1-2. Stoppage time added – 4 minutes. Sergio Ramos nets an equalizer in the 3rd minute of stoppage time. Los Blancos win 3-2 in extra time.

#2 2013-14 UEFA Champions League Final: Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid. Atletico leading 1-0. Stoppage time added – 5 minutes. Ramos equalizes again to send the game into extra time. Eventually, Real Madrid wins 4-1.

#3 Final fixture and title decider of the 2011-12 season of the English Premier League: Manchester City vs QPR. City losing 1-2 at the end of 90 minutes. Stoppage time added – 5 minutes. City scored two goals in stoppage time to win the game and snatch the title away from Manchester United on goal difference.

These are just a few from a long list of games where big teams came back into the game in stoppage time to eventually win the match. Games which will go down into the history as “One of the most memorable injury-time finishes in football”. Losing teams may have cursed themselves for not holding their nerves when it really mattered. But was it the only thing that stood between them and the winning side? Maybe not.

Stats don’t lie

According to an article published in the journal ‘Perceptual and motor skills’, Researchers – Carlos Lago, from the University of Vigo (Spain), and Maite Gómez, from the European University of Madrid – have confirmed that referees favor the big teams by reducing the extra time when these teams are winning. In contrast, the amount of stoppage time was increased when a big team is losing; giving an opportunity to the favorites, to at least, draw the game. And they have a solid proof backing this conclusion.

The two Sports Scientists analyzed all the matches from 2014-15 Spanish La Liga season to arrive at the conclusion that the greater the difference on the scoreboard, the less stoppage time is added to the end of the game. However, when the score is tighter, referees tend to add more stoppage time when the team in the higher division is losing.

Ideally, the amount of stoppage time to be added depends on upon a number of factors like injuries, substitutions, goal celebrations or some incidents which lead to stoppage of the play. But according to this study, other factors also play a role while determining the stoppage time.

The data from all the 380 matches from 2014-15 La Liga season was thoroughly analyzed while carrying out this study. Then, number of variables like

1. The difference in goals on the scoreboard
2. The playing level of each team
3. The number of red and yellow cards
4. Player substitutions,
5. The average number of assists and fouls committed

were taken into account to study their influence on the amount of stoppage time. After applying a statistical method called linear regression which is widely used to identify relationships between variables, it was observed that the greater the difference on the scoreboard, the less stoppage time was given by the referee. In very tight matches, nevertheless, refs tend to add more seconds when the team in the higher division is losing, and fewer seconds when they are winning.

“The typical complaint from less powerful teams regarding how referees treat big teams better might make sense,” explains Lago , one of the researchers who conducted the study.

“As their decisions tend to benefit the higher ranked teams when the scoreboard is against them. Furthermore, the more important the difference between the clubs, the greater the advantage”.

Interestingly, this statistical trend disappears when two big teams or two small teams are playing. Meaning, more the inequality between the playing clubs, more the bias towards big teams.

The Home Advantage

The pressure from local fans also has an influence on referees when it comes to adding on more or less time. In the Spanish league, referees add 112 more seconds when the home team is losing by one goal. This bias was also found at football matches of the Bundesliga (Germany), Serie A (Italy), Premier League (United Kingdom), Major League Soccer (USA and Canada) and of the Campeonato Brasileiro (Brazil) leagues.

According to Lago, inexperienced referees are more prone to making biased decisions. The expert in sports science strongly recommends the need of improvements in referee training to prevent subjectivity in their decisions to the extent possible.

The English Premier League recently changed its guidelines for the addition of the stoppage time. Referees will now consider the time lost due to assessment/treatment of injured players and drinks break, which was not present in previous guidelines.

The Premier League gets its fair share of “injury time” finishes every season. With the details of this study now public, it will be interesting to see how many times the minnows can overpower the giants in stoppage time.