Manchester United: Does the Devil smile at the future?

In this handout photo provided by the NYSE Euronext, Manchester United Executives Joel Glazer (C) and Avram Glazer (C,L) prepare to ring the Opening Bell at the New York Stock Exchange on August 10, 2012 in New York City. Manchester United shares started trading at USD 14.05 at the opening of the New York Stock Exchange.

Manchester United this summer were again in the thick of the summer transfer drama. But this summer involved more than that for the Premier League giants.

As the summer draws to the close, we have seen Manchester United miss out on Lucas Moura, Eden Hazard, while signing the PFA Players’ Player of the Year 2011, Robin van Persie for a total package of ££48.9m, Shinji Kagawa, and Nick Powell with the signing of yet another striker, Angelo Henriquez seeming just a matter of time. But this summer was more than just this.

With a public flotation of 10 percent share of the club, the Glazers listed Manchester United in NYSE. Also, this was a summer after a season in which Manchester United won no trophies, with city rivals, Manchester City winning the League and London rivals Chelsea winning the Champions League. So as we are about to begin the new season, lets assess United’s summer of 2012.

Transfers

Three of the season’s most hyped transfer sagas featured Manchester United. First there was Eden Hazard. In a three-legged race between Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea, for the hottest talent in Europe, the Londoners emerged victorious. The fee agreed by Chelsea, with the salary package and agent fees priced United out of the race. Following the early miss of Hazard, United completed the signing of Borussia Dortmund playmaker Shinji Kagawa and Crew Alexandria starlet Nick Powell.

While most accused that Kagawa’s signature is aimed at United’s attempts at making further forays into the Asian markets, the pre-season has shown the ability of Kagawa to produce the flair lacking in United’s midfield last season. Powell, though a teen with great potential, seems to be an investment for the future.

United boss Alex Ferguson’s attempts at signing Brazilian teenage sensation Lucas Moura got United involved in yet another and possibly the most annoying transfer saga of the summer. With Real Madrid, Manchester United and Inter Milan involved, United were tipped to succeed, till a last minute masterstroke by Leonardo, the director at Paris Saint-Germain. It was later reported that United had the deal agreed with Sao Paulo till the last minute interception by PSG. Lucas broke hearts and transfer records in agreeing a transfer to PSG.

The failure to land two highly rated midfielders, with that being the need of the hour for United might prove to be the difference in the coming season. With the departure of Roy Keane and aging of Paul Scholes, there is a huge void of world class talent in the United midfield. Being outplayed in many of the games in Europe last season, the attempts at band-aid solutions are over. Despite Michael Carrick having one of his best seasons, the United midfield was at best mediocre last season.

United lacked the high work-rate of Darren Fletcher and Park Ji-Sung. There was no player who had the big game attitude to take the game to the opposition, break-up the opposition’s play by clean tackles and retain possession. Also in tight games, the midfield lacked the creativity to produce chances against disciplined oppositions. While how Kagawa’s flair, Scholes’ passing accuracy, the maturity of Carrick and the industry of Cleverly would come together this season remains to be seen, one cannot assume it to rival the best in Europe. With Anderson’s talent never translating into anything substantial for the club it remains to be seen whether the United midfield does stand up to the test of the season.

Lacking flair in the center of the midfield did not stop Alex Ferguson from signing the Premier League top scorer from last season. The transfer of Robin Van Persie, the Arsenal captain, is the most talked about transfer of the season. United’s total package of a jaw-dropping £48.9m for a 29 year old striker, with the likes of Wayne Rooney, Chicharito, Danny Welbeck, Dimitar Berbatov already in the United ranks, raises questions over the sanity of the transfer, when more pressing concerns of the midfield needs addressing. Though one must face the fact that with Van Persie and Rooney, United now has the best strikeforce in Europe. But would Van Persie adapt quickly to the United style? Would he remain fit? Most importantly, would he be able to score goals at a rate close to that of last season? These are questions that would be answered over the course of the season, but they will determine whether Ferguson was out of his mind when he went for Van Persie. At least, even if it is a waste of money, it cannot hurt United too bad, because of United’s depth of squad when it comes to strikers. There will be others ready should he fail.

Are there no more pressing concerns which Ferguson need to address? Sure there is! For starters there is Patrice Evra, whose form seems to be on a continuous decline ever since the last World Cup. There was talk of United signing Leighton Baines. But the deal now seems dead, with Everton‘s £16 million valuation of Baines being the stumbling block. With chinks in United’s defensive armor, an extravagant deal for Van Persie seems unjust. With talks of yet another striker arriving from Chile, it does make one question Ferguson. Missing out on key midfield players like Wesley Sneijder and Luka Modric in the past, Ferguson seems to be making the same mistakes all over again this season, perhaps being convinced by the talent of Kagawa. What comes out of this faith in the existing midfield, the coming season would tell, but it may not be to the liking of United fans.

But does United really need Van Persie? With Welbeck still developing and Chicharito’s lack of form since his concussion, it seems Van Persie’s signature might not be all that bad. However, I don’t think we can expect Ferguson to move away from his favorite 4-4-2 formation so soon. But with Kagawa, the option to switch to a 4-2-3-1 formation when necessary remains. But a 4-4-2 is likely to dominate with Van Persie and Rooney at the head of attack, with supply from the flanks.

Financial Health

United’s financial woes are here to continue. While Arsenal FC payed off most of its debts, United is still sunk in the debt of its owners. All the big commercial deals the club strikes would not be suffice to wipe out the debt. The Glazer’s attempt to raise money by share flotation was not received particularly well by the investors or the fans. With the Singapore floatation put off, the NYSE listing raised about £75 million for the club with the Glazers pocketing an equal amount. This attempt is nowhere near the requirements to reduce debts and make the club more competitive in the transfer market.

With the debt rising with interests, it seems unlikely that United would be able to make marquee signings in the near future since they would be priced out of their range. With Financial Fair Play approaching, United looks to UEFA for some respite in transfer market. But it all depends on how strict UEFA decides to be in their regulation.

Glazers’ last ditch effort as many suggest, might be to sell the naming rights to Old Trafford to raise sufficient funds to pay off debts. But such a move would be hugely unpopular with the fans and would further tarnish the relationship between the club and the fans. However, this might turn out to be the most viable plan.

However, with huge turnover from sponsorship, media rights, merchandising, etc, it seems United, though debt laden would survive well in the Financial Fair Play regime.

Immediate Future

While most predict City to defend their crown successfully, one should expect it to go down to the wire. United showed last season that what they lack in quality they make up for in mental strength and grit. Expect a better challenge. If the side remains free of major injury layoffs, City might need to do more than last season if they are to win this season. If the Van Persie gamble pays off and if he is even at 80% of last season then United would really be formidable.

But European success might still be harder to come by. United might not repeat the dismal performance from last season in Europe. But there is still some holes which stand in the way of this side challenging the best in Europe. Again with a consistent back four and injury free midfield, United can make more of the striking depth and find some progress in Europe.

The financial woes of the club does not seem like getting over anytime soon. With FFP in the horizon, United might be in a better situation than Chelsea, City or PSG, but to compete with the likes of Barcelona and Real Madrid, United still has to do more.

In this precarious situation the club finds itself in a mess, thanks to its owners, one gets a feeling that lot depends on luck. With the share prices flat, the idea of share flotation is not looking like a realistic solution. The Van Persie gamble and United’s luck in the injury front might prove to be the difference between a successful season or a disaster. The Red Devils seem to smile at the future… But would future smile back? That we would have to wait and see.