Let us start off with some basic physics, shall we? (Don’t worry, this is no exam and I promise not to lecture you!)
Sir Isaac Newton’s first law of motion had something to do with change, which effectively implied this: “Inertia is the property of an object to resist any change in its current state – whether it is in motion or stationary.”
Now what does this have to do with football, you ask? Allow me to explain. Imagine cruising at top speed on the highway and a toll booth pops up out of nowhere causing you to brake.
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It is that time of the football calendar now – the dreaded international break - when every club fan is wishing for days to pass by sooner and the normalcy of weekend (and midweek) games to resume in full swing.
In analogous terms, the football world was in a state of inertia before the international break came up on it.
To go back to our car example (yes, I am still on it!) – regaining the same speed that you were driving at before the forced toll break will take a few seconds, if not more, depending on various factors.
Similarly, the restart of league football across Europe may or may not have an effect on the form of clubs who went into the break at their peak.
The international break worries
Be it friendly games or qualifiers for the Euros / World Cup, this round of games often causes jitters among fans due to injury concerns.
The list from the ongoing break does not make for pretty reading - Hector Bellerin, Diego Costa, Eden Hazard and Wayne Rooney are all reported to be injured and these are just a few of the high-profile names on the casualty list.
There are still a few days left before those on international duty return to their bases, as fans and managers of clubs sweat over their players’ fitness.
The second biggest concern is form/momentum; some clubs go on a winning/unbeaten streak for a series of games preceding the break. However, the fortnight of inaction that follows at the league level is oft suspected to have an adverse impact in the immediate aftermath of return to club football.
It is to be noted that the Bundesliga teams play 4 games fewer than the others, owing to the fact that the German top division includes only 18 clubs as opposed to 20 in England, Spain and Italy.
In this article, we assess the performances of a select group of in-form / top clubs across the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga and the Serie A, and delve deep to understand if the fortnight’s break indeed disrupts their momentum.
The Leagues
Over the past 5 seasons, across all the clubs under consideration from the four leagues, the teams averaged 4.1 points in the 2 games immediately preceding the break.The interesting point, however, is that the average was 4.2 points over the course of the two games that followed the break.
| Leagues | Before break (average points 2011/12 – 2015/16) | After break (average points 2011/12 – 2015/16) |
|---|---|---|
| La Liga | 4.6 | 4.7 |
| Serie A | 4.0 | 4.3 |
| Bundesliga | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| EPL | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Overall | 4.1 | 4.2 |
The Bundesliga clubs saw a marginal dip to 4.2 points from 4.3, over two games after and before the break respectively while the top two from Italy improved their points tally to 4.3 from 4.0 after the internationals.
The 3 biggies from the La Liga slightly improved on their performances to 4.7 over the two games after vs. 4.6 during the two games prior to the break.The 6 Premier League teams averaged 3.8 points in the couple of games leading up to the internationals and maintained the same in the two games succeeding the break.
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When the points averaged between 3-5 games prior to and after the international breaks over the five seasons are taken into account, we came across an interesting insight – the league averages are higher after the break by at least one point, and by 2 points or more in the case of La Liga and Serie A teams under consideration.
| Leagues | Before break (average points 2011/12 – 2015/16) | After break (average points 2011/12 – 2015/16) |
|---|---|---|
| La Liga | 9.2 | 11.3 |
| Serie A | 8.6 | 10.6 |
| Bundesliga | 8.5 | 9.6 |
| EPL | 7.5 | 8.5 |
| Overall | 8.2 | 9.6 |
The Teams
Arsenal in the Premier League, Real Madrid in the La Liga, Bayern in the Bundesliga and Juventus in Serie A average the most points in the two games that follow the break.
| Teams | Before break (average 2011/12-2015/16) | After break (average 2011/12-2015/16) |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 4.1 | 4.4 |
| Manchester United | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| Manchester City | 3.5 | 4.0 |
| Chelsea | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| Liverpool | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| Real Madrid | 4.1 | 4.9 |
| Atletico Madrid | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Barcelona | 5.1 | 4.6 |
| Bayern Munich | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Bayer Leverkeusen | 3.4 | 3.9 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 4.2 | 3.5 |
| Juventus | 3.8 | 4.9 |
| AS Roma | 4.1 | 3.7 |
However, the biggest beneficiaries of the break are Manchester City, Real Madrid, Leverkusen and Juventus in their respective leagues – these teams outperformed after the break vs. their form in the games leading up to the break.
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The biggest gainer across all the teams under consideration for analysis is Real Madrid (0.8 points) whereas the team worst hit is Borussia Dortmund (-0.7 points).
Liverpool, Barcelona, Dortmund and Roma suffer the consequences of a fortnight’s gap the most in their respective leagues as shown below:
| Teams | Before break (average 2011/12-2015/16) | After break (average 2011/12-2015/16) | Points gain / loss after the break |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 3.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 |
| Arsenal | 4.1 | 4.4 | 0.3 |
| Manchester United | 3.9 | 4.1 | 0.1 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 4.1 | 4.0 | -0.1 |
| Chelsea | 4.1 | 3.8 | -0.2 |
| Liverpool | 2.8 | 2.6 | -0.2 |
| Real Madrid | 4.1 | 4.9 | 0.8 |
| Atletico Madrid | 4.5 | 4.7 | 0.2 |
| Barcelona | 5.1 | 4.6 | -0.5 |
| Bayer Leverkeusen | 3.4 | 3.9 | 0.5 |
| Bayern Munich | 5.1 | 5.1 | -0.1 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 4.2 | 3.5 | -0.7 |
| Juventus | 3.8 | 4.9 | 1.1 |
| AS Roma | 4.1 | 3.7 | -0.4 |
2016/17 season
The current season is in recess for the third time; here is a look at the average points tally for the teams in the two games pre and post the breaks so far.
| Teams | Before break (average 2011/12-2015/16) | After break (average 2011/12-2015/16) | Points gain / loss after the break |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 3.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 |
| Liverpool | 4.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 |
| Chelsea | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| Manchester City | 6.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| Manchester United | 3.0 | 0.5 | -2.5 |
| Atletico Madrid | 4.0 | 4.5 | 0.5 |
| Real Madrid | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 |
| Barcelona | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 |
| Bayern Munich | 4.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 |
| Bayer Leverkeusen | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 3.0 | 2.5 | -0.5 |
| AS Roma | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 |
| Juventus | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 |
Teams that have been on the wrong side of the international break during previous seasons have defied historical averages to come out on top this time around.
Arsenal lead the Premier League list, followed by Liverpool; Atletico Madrid are reaping the benefits of their solidity at home while Roma edges out Juventus in the Serie A honours table. Bayern keep their place as the top gainers in the German top flight.
Conclusion
Our analysis throws up an interesting perspective – the overall momentum of in-form clubs is more or less maintained post the international break. There may be marginal differences in points across the leagues but the takeaway is broadly similar.
However, at a more granular level, some teams take more of a hit to their form before and after the interval, as we see from the gainers / losers table.
The rationale behind assessing only the first two performances after the break is that the immediate impact of the break in form / momentum would be visible in these games the most. When more than two games pre and post break are considered, the numbers are in favour of the break!
Overall on the basis of our analysis, we found insufficient evidence in history to conclusively prove that the break disrupts momentum of in-form clubs.
(Note: Below is the list of clubs whose form was examined over a period of 5 seasons, which effectively included more than 15 international breaks.
Premier League: Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspurs
La Liga: Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Real Madrid
Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund
Serie A: Juventus, AS Roma
Past seasons used for analysis: 2011/12 – 2015/16 in full
Current season: 2016/17)
