2016/17 season
Trending
The current season is in recess for the third time; here is a look at the average points tally for the teams in the two games pre and post the breaks so far.
| Teams | Before break (average 2011/12-2015/16) | After break (average 2011/12-2015/16) | Points gain / loss after the break |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 3.5 | 5.0 | 1.5 |
| Liverpool | 4.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 |
| Chelsea | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.0 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 5.0 | 4.0 | -1.0 |
| Manchester City | 6.0 | 4.0 | -2.0 |
| Manchester United | 3.0 | 0.5 | -2.5 |
| Atletico Madrid | 4.0 | 4.5 | 0.5 |
| Real Madrid | 6.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 |
| Barcelona | 4.5 | 4.5 | 0.0 |
| Bayern Munich | 4.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 |
| Bayer Leverkeusen | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 3.0 | 2.5 | -0.5 |
| AS Roma | 3.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 |
| Juventus | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 |
Teams that have been on the wrong side of the international break during previous seasons have defied historical averages to come out on top this time around.
Arsenal lead the Premier League list, followed by Liverpool; Atletico Madrid are reaping the benefits of their solidity at home while Roma edges out Juventus in the Serie A honours table. Bayern keep their place as the top gainers in the German top flight.
Conclusion
Our analysis throws up an interesting perspective – the overall momentum of in-form clubs is more or less maintained post the international break. There may be marginal differences in points across the leagues but the takeaway is broadly similar.
However, at a more granular level, some teams take more of a hit to their form before and after the interval, as we see from the gainers / losers table.
The rationale behind assessing only the first two performances after the break is that the immediate impact of the break in form / momentum would be visible in these games the most. When more than two games pre and post break are considered, the numbers are in favour of the break!
Overall on the basis of our analysis, we found insufficient evidence in history to conclusively prove that the break disrupts momentum of in-form clubs.
(Note: Below is the list of clubs whose form was examined over a period of 5 seasons, which effectively included more than 15 international breaks.
Premier League: Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspurs
La Liga: Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, Real Madrid
Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund
Serie A: Juventus, AS Roma
Past seasons used for analysis: 2011/12 – 2015/16 in full
Current season: 2016/17)
