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DISCLAIMER: The opinions in this article are the author’s alone and not necessarily those of SportsKeeda.
With the title now being more or less decided, it’s time to focus on the other major battle that is brewing in the league – the race for the UEFA Champions League spots. The rapidly dipping form of Chelsea has raised the question about which 2 teams will join the Manchester clubs in the top 4 this year. As a benchmark, last year, Spurs finished at 69 points to claim the 4th spot, although that didn’t matter eventually with Chelsea winning the CL and negating the 4th spot.
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Will AVB get his revenge on Abramovich for dismissing him without a second thought? Will Arsene prove to his critics that he should be judged only in May and never before that ? Will the Chelsea players finally work like the well-oiled goal scoring machine they were in the early parts of the season?
Here is an assessment of the teams in fray this year and how it could go down to the wire.
Tottenham Hotspurs :
Tottenham Hotspurs are the team in form, and unfortunately, also the team with the toughest run-in of the three contenders. Of the next 11 matches remaining in the season, Spurs face 7 teams in the top 10 currently, including both the other contenders, besides Manchester City, the title challengers. It doesn’t help that Spurs have to face a tough Inter Milan team in the next round of the Europa League. Clearly, AVB will have to decide his priorities; a trophy this season or an elusive CL spot next season?
Gareth Bale and his mercurial goal-scoring form will prove to be very critical for the path Spurs take from here for the final run-in. The return of Jermain Defoe to the team, work-horse Clint Dempsey remaining fit, and the yo-yo form of Emmanuel Adebayor would prove to be swing factors as well. However, the wildcard will be Lewis Holtby, who now seems to be filling the hole left by Luka Modric and providing some creativity in the midfield. If he proves to be the missing spark for the team, 3rd place could easily slip away from Chelsea.
The points breakdown
March : Arsenal (H), Liverpool(A), Fulham(H), Swansea(A) – 9 points
To start off March, they would face a tough test at the North London derby, followed by a trip to Anfield, and round it off with what can only be expected to be regulation wins against Fulham and an out-of-form Swansea team towards the end of the season. I would place my money on one win and one defeat in the first 2 games for a 9 point haul in March.
April : Everton(H), Chelsea(A), Man City(H), Wigan(A) – 7 points
April will prove to be very crucial to where Spurs finish the season with 3 very tough matches awaiting them. I am not going to place my neck on the line on which result against which team, but 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat from the tough 3 matches, and a regulation win at Wigan will leave them with 7 points from April.
May : Southampton (H), Stoke(A), Sunderland(H) – 7 points
While ‘nothing to play for’ Stoke should be an easy kill, the relegation strugglers – Southampton and Sunderland – could play an important role in determining the top 4 this season by holding on to a draw against Spurs (and possibly against the other teams in the fray).
Grand Total : 74 points.
Arsenal :
Despite most Gunners being terribly disappointed with the team, a competitive season (or rather terrible form of competitors) has left Arsenal with more than a sniff at the CL spots. Arsenal have a balanced run-in, with matches against the title favourites, their North London neighbours, relegation battlers, and teams with nothing to fight for lined up for the rest of the season. The soon-to-be-completed humiliation at the hands of Bayern Munich should hopefully prove to be a relief from a hectic schedule rather than a morale-crusher.
Can Santi Cazorla continue his goal-scoring form till the end of the season?
While Olivier Giroud and Theo Walcott have put in useful shifts as strikers, Arsenal have largely functioned as a team without a goal poacher this season. The Gooners would hope that Santi Cazorla finding the back of the net twice against Aston Villa would spark off a fine scoring run for him. Above all, keeping Jack Wilshere and Mikel Arteta off the treatment table could prove to be the most important determinant of where Arsenal finish this season.
The points breakdown
March : Tottenham (A), Everton(H), Swansea(A), Reading(H) -10 points
A tough start against followed by 2 must-win matches is how March lines up for the Gunners. Given their recent record in North London derbies, 10 points in March seems to be the minimum points that Arsenal should end up with.
April : West Brom(A), Norwich(H), Fulham(A), Man Utd(H) – 7 points
An easy April save for the clash with Manchester United, who could also prove to be running out of steam if they have wrapped up the title by then. 7 points from these 4 matches would be a conservative estimate accounting for the injuries and defensive cock-ups.
May : QPR (A), Wigan(H), Newcastle(A) – 7 points
While May is a relatively easy last month with QPR and Newcastle having almost nothing to play for, Wigan could prove to be the only banana skin tie. Don’t put it beyond Arsenal to drop (at least) 2 points in May.
Grand Total: 71 points
Chelsea
As of today, Chelsea have lost the 3rd spot and now sit only 2 points away from Arsenal- who are having a disaster of a season. A relatively easy run-in by the looks of it, but the form of the team and their confidence will need to pick up from the current levels if they are to put the CL spot beyond doubt. While matches against Manchester United, Tottenham, Everton and Liverpool will be crucial to reduce the points dropped, it’s all the other ties that will go a long way in sealing the deal for Chelsea. Chelsea fans will hope that the Europa league will either cease to be a priority or Rafa will have the sense to rotate his team well enough to avoid fatigue as they defend the CL spots.
Will Rafa Benitez be able to come up with a winning combination?
Chelsea’s fortunes will depend heavily on their manager Rafa Benitez as he seems to be struggling to find a way for this team to work together. For all of Roman Abramovich’s dreams of playing attractive silky football, he definitely appointed the wrong manager to take the team to that route! Known for his defensive prowess, Benitez has now left the team confused with the players unclear of their roles. The team has the players at their disposal to turn games on its head with their sheer talent and flair – Juan Mata, Eden Hazard and Fernando Torres (when in form) – or those who will grind it out for the victory – Frank Lampard, John Terry and Ramires. If “The Spanish Waiter” can finally get the menu right, fans will hope to end the season on a sweet, rather than a sour note.
The points breakdown
March : West Brom (H), Fulham(A), West Ham (H), Southampton(A) – 10 points
A very easy March and even 10 points could be a pessimist’s view of this month, but the Premier League has thrown quite a few surprises this season, and the inconsistent form of Chelsea means that I would leave this month at 10 points for Chelsea.
April : Sunderland(H), Tottenham(H), Liverpool(A), Swansea(H) – 8 points
If Demba Ba and Fernando Torres find a way to work together, this might as well be a 10/12 point month. But based on current form, I would count draws against Tottenham and Liverpool as ambitious targets, and 8 points will be a good haul from March.
May : Man Utd (A), Aston Villa(A), Everton(H) – 4 points
Chelsea do turn up with big players for the big matches, but whether the team will still be playing as a cohesive unit in May remains to be seen. Aston Villa, fighting relegation, and Everton, hoping to give a strong finish to the season, will prove to be tough finishers, and beating United at Old Trafford definitely seems impossible given the current run. 4 points would again be a safe estimate for May.
Grand Total : 71 points
Voila, there we have it! So Tottenham will have a cakewalk into Europe by the looks of it , while it seems like it will definitely go down to the wire for Chelsea and Arsenal .
Of course, my judgement isn’t perfect and it could end up completely differently – Chelsea could have a magical turn-around in form, Spurs could lose conviction or Arsenal could be found lacking in “mental strength”. As things stand now, this is my take on where the teams will end up. Let’s now wait for Gameweek 38 on May 12 to see how the table lines up. May the force be with the teams !
