Euro 2020: Paul Merson’s predictions for the quarterfinal fixtures

Paul Merson
Paul Merson

The Round of 16 of UEFA Euro 2020 produced some of the best football we have ever witnessed in decades. While the group stages didn’t really give us too many upsets, the first set of knock-out matches have certainly captured our imaginations with some exhilarating clashes and brilliant results.

The Euro 2020 quarterfinals do feature some of the tournament’s usual suspects but will also bear witness to a host of surprise entries. The Czech Republic, for instance, defied all odds to defeat the Netherlands in their Round of 16 clash and thoroughly deserve their place in this weekend’s set of fixtures.

Ukraine got the better of Sweden in a game that went right down to the wire and produced a winner in the last minute of open play. Switzerland pulled off an even bigger upset and stunned France in a penalty shoot-out for the ages.

The highlight of the Round of 16, for me, was England’s historic victory against Germany in front of a raucous crowd at Wembley. Gareth Southgate and his men have really found their stride and have been defensively solid this summer.

The spectacle we saw in the Round of 16 will take some beating, but the teams that have made it to the Euro 2020 quarterfinals are quite capable of producing the extraordinary. There’s nothing quite like a knock-out game in an international tournament, and the Euro 2020 games have not disappointed this year.

After studying the games we’ve watched this week, I’ve made my predictions and have also chosen one standout player from the Euro 2020 quarterfinals that are being played this weekend.


#4 Switzerland vs Spain

Alvaro Morata seems to have found his mojo back at Euro 2020
Alvaro Morata seems to have found his mojo back at Euro 2020

The way Spain are going at the moment, they can be a massive threat at Euro 2020. They’ve put the ball in the back of the net 10 times in their last two games. Luis Enrique and his players were tested by a strong Croatia side but their quality and experience on the big stage helped them to an important victory.

After what they did to France, however, you can never rule Switzerland out of a match. We all thought they were on their way to victory after they took the lead but France showed their hand for a brief ten-minute spell and turned it around. The Swiss pulled off a great comeback, though, and showed us just what can happen when the underdogs take the game to Europe’s bigger teams.

Switzerland played their hearts out in extra time and the massive effort they put in would have taken its toll. Spain also had to play the full 120 minutes against Croatia but didn’t get run around too much. Luis Enrique’s men keep much more of the ball than Switzerland and should be in much better physical shape going into this Euro 2020 quarter-final.

It’s only a matter of time before these longer matches begin to have an effect on the players. Spain have brilliant players like Pedri who don’t need to make runs and beat five players – they see passes very well and find pockets of space. It is important for Switzerland to have another go this weekend, but Spain are real dark horses this time and I’m backing them to win this game and book their place in the semi-finals of Euro 2020.

Player to Watch: Alvaro Morata

Cesc Fabregas mentioned on-air the other day that Alvaro Morata’s penalty miss against Slovakia would have affected his confidence. After that goal he scored against Croatia, though, I’d say he’s certainly got his mojo back. Morata becomes a bigger presence when he scores and his confidence should serve him well in the knockout stages of Euro 2020.

Prediction: Spain 2-0 Switzerland


Also read: Most valuable XI in the Euro 2020 quarterfinals


#3 Belgium vs Italy

Lorenzo Insigne could have a huge say in Italy's Euro 2020 quarter-final match against Belgium
Lorenzo Insigne could have a huge say in Italy's Euro 2020 quarter-final match against Belgium

I was very disappointed with the way Belgium played their game against Portugal – they were overly negative and were far too reliant on Romelu Lukaku to get them through the game. They did manage to win by a 1-0 margin but with Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard both injured, Italy have the upper hand in this Euro 2020 quarterfinal.

You’ve got to have luck on your side to win tournaments like Euro 2020, and Italy benefitted from their fair share when VAR intervened to rule Arnautovic’s goal offside. Italy have great forwards and when you have someone like Chiesa coming off the bench to score late goals, you’re always in with a chance.

Italy enjoyed a fairly comfortable run in Group A against Turkey, Wales and Switzerland but were given a run for their money by Austria. They passed their litmus test in the Round of 16 against a robust team and now that they have the monkey off their backs, they’ll be better off going into the bigger games of the tournament.

I thought Mancini got it wrong with Verratti – Locatelli is in great form at the moment and should have played against Austria. Belgium’s defense did well against Portugal and effectively proved that age doesn’t matter, but I’d fancy a victory for Italy this weekend.

Player to Watch: Lorenzo Insigne

Lorenzo Insigne likes to play in those nice little spaces and can work between the lines to cause pertinent problems. The Belgians like to bomb forward but will be in two minds – do they attack or do they track back and stay with him? It’s going to be a bit like a game of cards in the end, and I have a feeling Belgium will be more worried about Insigne than the other way round.

Prediction: Belgium 1-2 Italy


Also read: Jim Beglin's column - Euro 2020: 5 players who have surprised everyone with their performances

#2 Czech Republic vs Denmark

Denmark star Mikkel Daamsgaard has been in fine form at Euro 2020
Denmark star Mikkel Daamsgaard has been in fine form at Euro 2020

In more ways than one, Czech Republic of Euro 2020 reminds me of the Republic of Ireland teams of yore. They don’t mess about, they play to their strengths, and they don’t conform to their opponents’ style of play. I thought the Netherlands were marginally better in the first half but Czech Republic did well to make them pay for that red card.

The Czech Republic have an element of grit about them and – let’s be honest – they should have scored against England as well. Patrik Schick is a good finisher and doesn’t get intimidated by defenders in the penalty area. Tomas Soucek is as good as anybody with his late runs into the box. Czech Republic have good players and provided a prime example of how teams can take advantage of the extra man with their victory against the Dutch.

Denmark got run ragged in the first ten minutes of their Euro 2020 Round of 16 clash and we all thought Wales were going to run away with the game. The Danes showed tremendous improvement after they put an extra man in that midfield and eventually ripped the Welsh to shreds.

Denmark have shown plenty of heart at Euro 2020 and hold a slight edge over the Czech Republic at the moment.

Player to Watch: Mikkel Damsgaard

Damsgaard was brilliant against Wales and was a lively presence throughout the game. The youngster has already scored some great goals and has really stepped up for his team at Euro 2020.

He wouldn’t have expected to be playing this much, but he’s taken his chances and – most importantly – he’s been ready. Mikkel Damsgaard has become Denmark’s main man and has goals in him, so keep an eye on this talent in the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Czech Republic 1-2 Denmark


Also read: Czech Republic vs Denmark prediction, preview, team news and more | UEFA Euro 2020


#1 Ukraine vs England

Raheem Sterling could be the star man for England at Euro 20
Raheem Sterling could be the star man for England at Euro 20

I think England should win this Euro 2020 quarterfinal quite comfortably, to be honest. The problem with Ukraine is that they’re quite unpredictable at times. There were times against Sweden when you’d watch Ukraine and think, “I hope we face these guys.” But they can come at you all of a sudden – Ukraine can pull off lethal counters and nearly scored against Sweden against the run of play.

If Ukraine sit back and defend against England for 90 minutes, I can’t see them succeeding. If they decide to play an open game and attack, they can really hurt us. England need to focus on their own game, however, and need to concentrate on the task on hand. It isn’t just false hope this time at Euro 2020 – we have a genuine shot at the trophy and our superior squad should be able to make it past Ukraine, Denmark, and Czech Republic.

Gareth Southgate has done a great job at Euro 2020 so far and hasn’t got enough credit for his decisions against Germany. Everybody’s forgotten who he started because we won the game, but there would have been an inquisition had we failed against Germany.

That being said, the game changed when Jack Grealish came on and England can count themselves lucky to have players of exceptional quality on the bench. Ukraine were undefeated in their Euro 2020 qualifying group so we can’t afford to underestimate them.

England need to avoid end-to-end situations and need to keep playing their way – the way that’s earned them four clean sheets so far at Euro 2020. England worked with lower expectations last week because a match against Germany could go either way, but a loss to Ukraine would come as a major shock.

Player to Watch: Raheem Sterling

You can’t not pick Raheem Sterling as your main man at Euro 2020. He’s scored almost all of our goals, he never hides and always seems to find good positions in the box. Sterling can miss a hat-trick of chances on a given day but will still get himself into that box and score.

I used to hear the same criticisms directed towards Gary Lineker in my playing days – things like, “Lineker only scores tap-ins from two yards out!” These comments conveniently ignore the fact that Lineker had the wherewithal to get himself into that position in the first place.

We’ve all seen Manchester City pass teams out of the park and walk the ball into the net, and it’s usually Sterling who finds himself in the right position to finish these moves.

He doesn’t push people out of the way to get the job done. He reads the game and the situation instead. More often than not, the simple chances are even harder to convert because they’re the ones that don’t usually come along.

Sterling found his own space and stepped up to break the deadlock against Croatia. With the winger in form, England should be able to get the better of Ukraine this weekend and make their way into the Euro 2020 semifinals

Prediction: Ukraine 0-2 England

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