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This past weekend saw the draw for the qualifying round of Euro 2020, with games set to take place in March, June, September, October and November of 2019 to decide the first 20 countries to enter the tournament.
There will be 4 further spots decided via playoff matches, but the advent of the UEFA Nations League has changed the way that teams can reach those playoffs, meaning incredibly, the whole lineup for Euro 2020 won’t be revealed until April 2020 – just two months before the tournament begins!
It sounds convoluted, but given the quality of this summer’s World Cup – as well as the great matches we’ve seen in the inaugural Nations League thus far – Euro 2020 should prove to be a much-anticipated tournament once it comes around.
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But which teams are likely to qualify from those groups that were drawn this weekend, filling the first 20 spots? It’s time to take a look, group-by-group.
Group A: England, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Kosovo
Group A looks relatively straightforward for Gareth Southgate’s England side, if we’re frank. There were some doubts about how the young Three Lions team could follow their surprising run to the World Cup semi-finals, but after some stirring performances in the Nations League – beating both Spain and Croatia – England fans should be confident against any team in Europe.
This draw certainly shouldn’t worry them too much; the Czech Republic are probably the next best side in the group, but they haven’t looked good since a poor Euro 2016 campaign, as they missed out on the World Cup and were comfortably beaten to the top of their Nations League group by Ukraine. They also don’t have the superstars that they once did in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Could Bulgaria spring somewhat of an upset and qualify ahead of the Czechs? Stranger things have happened; they beat Sweden and the Netherlands in World Cup 2018 qualifiers, started strongly in their Nations League group before fading and being pipped by Norway, and look like a solid outfit despite a lack of star names.
Montenegro and Kosovo – despite the latter team’s Nations League success that has seen them promoted into League C – will likely struggle here, although their results against the Czechs and Bulgaria could prove to be crucial for the chances of those two sides qualifying.
I’d expect England to likely win all ten games here; the chances of a slip-up seem minimal these days and the Czechs were probably the weakest side in Pot 2. In terms of a runner-up, I think Bulgaria might have more momentum than the Czechs right now and if they can start well, they could make it. It’ll help them that they don’t face England until September 2019, for starters.
Prediction: England and Bulgaria to qualify
Group B: Portugal, Ukraine, Serbia, Lithuania, Luxembourg
Euro 2016 winners Portugal will go into this group as heavy favourites, as despite a relatively disappointing World Cup campaign, they’ve looked excellent in their Nations League fixtures – winning a group which contained Italy and Poland and avoiding defeat throughout. Despite losing Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal still have an outstanding side which features the likes of Andre Silva, Renato Sanches, Ruben Neves and Goncalo Guedes, all of whom performed well in the Nations League.
With that said, they may not have things easy. Lithuania and Luxembourg will undoubtedly act as whipping boys, but Ukraine and Serbia are no pushovers at all. Both sides won their Nations League groups; Ukraine being promoted to League A for the next competition and Serbia going into League B.
Serbia were arguably the more impressive of the two sides, although their competition – Romania, Montenegro and Lithuania – wasn’t as tricky as Ukraine’s. They were able to remain unbeaten throughout the competition, and striker Aleksandar Mitrovic ended up as League C’s top scorer with 6 goals.
Ukraine meanwhile reeled off 3 straight wins to put them in pole position in their group, but a disappointing 4-1 loss to bottom-placed Slovakia put a dampener on their campaign.
Overall I’m leaning towards Serbia to qualify behind Portugal here; they have a stronger squad than Ukraine in my eyes, with some excellent talent including Mitrovic, Adem Ljajic, and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, and I’d favour them in their clashes against Ukraine, which will likely prove to be pivotal assuming both sides beat Lithuania and Luxembourg.
Prediction: Serbia and Portugal to qualify
Group C: Netherlands, Germany, Northern Ireland, Estonia, Belarus
When it was announced that Germany would be in Pot 2 for the qualifying draw following their disastrous World Cup and Nations League campaigns, it was pretty clear that they would be the side that any team from Pot 1 would be looking to avoid. In the end though, the Netherlands can’t be too unhappy with this draw overall.
Ronald Koeman’s resurgent Oranje won their Nations League group by taking points off Germany – beating them at home and then picking up a draw away – and have seemingly shaken off the cobwebs after their failure to qualify for Euro 2016 and the World Cup this year.
Led by captain Virgil Van Dijk, young talents like Frenkie De Jong and Matthijs De Ligt have combined with the resurgent Memphis Depay and Ryan Babel to create a dangerous looking side for any team to face.
The Germans have obviously been on a slide of sorts, but even they must be happy with this draw; even if they were to lose twice to the Netherlands, it’s hard to see Northern Ireland, Estonia or Belarus giving them any difficulties. A few years ago the Irish may have been a tricky side to face, but since their Euro 2016 adventure they’ve slipped badly, and lost all 4 of their Nations League fixtures, scoring just 2 goals along the way.
Belarus may yet be a surprising qualifier as they won their Nations League group, which gives them one of those all-important playoff spots, but I don’t expect them to have any success here – particularly against the Netherlands or Germany, who should be in a straight shootout for top spot with both qualifying regardless.
Prediction: Netherlands and Germany to qualify
Group D: Switzerland, Denmark, Republic of Ireland, Georgia, Gibraltar
This group could be surprisingly tricky to call, depending on how the Republic of Ireland can recover from a disastrous Nations League campaign that saw manager Martin O’Neill relieved of his job. If new boss Mick McCarthy can recapture the kind of spirit that saw him lead the Republic to the World Cup in 2002, anything is possible.
Sure, the Irish don’t have the quality that they did back then in Roy Keane, Robbie Keane and Damian Duff, but in Declan Rice and Michael Obafemi, they have exciting young talent, as well as stalwarts like Jeff Hendrick, Shane Duffy and Robbie Brady.
It won’t be easy for them, however, as they face recent nemesis Denmark – who defeated them in a qualifying playoff for the World Cup and topped their Nations League group, although they didn’t defeat the Republic in either of the games between the two. With key man Christian Eriksen in the form of his life though, they’re definitely a dangerous side.
Switzerland have also looked excellent recently; they surprised everyone by topping their Nations League group, and thumped Belgium 5-2 in a remarkable final match. The Swiss always tend to fly under the radar, but in Xherdan Shaqiri they have a genuine top-class talent capable of dismantling any team on his day.
Georgia aren’t likely to qualify, but after a strong Nations League campaign saw them top their group with 5 wins and 1 draw, they’ll be looking to pull off a potential upset of one of the bigger sides, which makes things more interesting. Gibraltar meanwhile continue to improve, but will clearly struggle here.
Overall I’d favour the Swiss to win the group, with Denmark most likely finishing as runners-up due to the Republic of Ireland being in a clear transition period. To see the Irish pull a miracle off wouldn’t be a massive shock, though.
Prediction: Switzerland and Denmark to qualify
Group E: Croatia, Wales, Slovakia, Hungary, Azerbaijan
Despite suffering relegation from League A, World Cup runners-up Croatia didn’t actually perform too badly in the Nations League. They defeated Spain and were actually minutes away from winning the group when England pulled off a dramatic come-from-behind win at Wembley in November.
That makes them big favourites for this group, and obviously it helps that in a surprise to some, longtime veterans Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic have decided to stick around. That means Croatia have only lost Mario Mandzukic from what is an incredibly strong squad all over the pitch, with the likes of Ivan Perisic, Mateo Kovacic and Andrej Kramaric also starring.
Wales should be looking to secure the runners-up spot here; in Gareth Bale they have a genuinely world-class talent, and recently he’s continued to act as the talisman for the side, as he inspired them to a tremendous 4-1 win over Ireland in the Nations League. They also have some tremendous youngsters in Ethan Ampadu, Ben Woodburn and Harry Wilson – although a lack of regular football for the former two will be worrying for manager Ryan Giggs.
Their closest threat will likely be Slovakia, who pushed England hard in qualifying for the World Cup, but realistically the likes of Marek Hamsik and Martin Skrtel are now aging and haven’t been making their usual impact. A 4-1 Nations League win over Ukraine was promising, however, despite their eventual relegation.
Hungary meanwhile have struggled to follow up their solid Euro 2016 showing, as they failed to qualify for the World Cup and then finished second to Finland in their Nations League campaign, although they did end it with two wins, including one over the Finns. And finally, Azerbaijan’s capital Baku will be hosting some of Euro 2020’s games, but I don’t expect them to qualify as this looks like a nasty group.
Overall Croatia should win this group comfortably, with Wales probably taking the runner-up spot assuming they don’t slip up against Slovakia or Hungary.
Prediction: Croatia and Wales to qualify
Group F: Spain, Sweden, Norway, Romania, Faroe Islands, Malta
Early on in the Nations League, it looked like Luis Enrique had reinvigorated Spain to the point where they could become as feared as they were about a decade ago. But their big wins over England and Croatia were followed by losses in the reverse fixtures, and suddenly it feels like La Furia Roja are back in the spot they occupied post-World Cup – a brilliant technical side with some clear weaknesses.
Those weaknesses honestly shouldn’t matter too much in this group, however. Sweden and Norway are both solid, workmanlike sides but nowhere near the level of England or Croatia in terms of attacking talent, while Romania, the Faroe Islands and Malta are simply miles behind Spain and both Scandinavian sides right now.
Basically, Spain should qualify in a cake-walk which leaves the runner-up spot as a likely Scandinavian shoot-out between the Swedes and Norwegians. And that one is quite close to call, in my opinion. Both sides won their Nations League groups, with Sweden gaining promotion to League A, and Norway into League B.
Clearly, Sweden have been more successful recently; their run to the World Cup quarter-finals was impressive and the post-Ibrahimovic era has seen Emil Forsberg emerge as a potential star. But some of their other big names – Marcus Berg, Andreas Granqvist, Sebastian Larsson – aren’t getting any younger and are probably closing in on the end of their international careers.
Norway meanwhile have been resurgent of late, interestingly under a Swedish coach, Lars Lagerback, who was also responsible for Iceland’s shocking run to Euro 2016’s quarter-finals.
They don’t have many big names – Bournemouth’s Josh King is perhaps their most well-known player, although youngster Martin Odegaard, on loan at Vitesse from Real Madrid, is also one to watch – but after a loss to Bulgaria they went unbeaten in the Nations League to win their group and have won 8 of 10 games in 2018.
I’d probably favour Sweden as they’re the more proven outfit right now, but to see Norway edge them out to finish behind Spain is definitely a possibility.
Prediction: Spain and Sweden to qualify
Group G: Poland, Austria, Israel, Slovenia, Macedonia, Latvia
Overall this is perhaps the weakest qualifying group in terms of depth. Poland came up woefully short in the World Cup, losing to both Senegal and Colombia before a consolation win over Japan, and their form hasn’t really improved in the Nations League as they failed to win a game in their group against Portugal and Italy.
They should still have a massive edge here though; huge talents like Robert Lewandowski, Arkadiusz Milik and Grzegorz Krychowiak remain from their solid Euro 2016 campaign, and the opposition in this group is sorely lacking.
Despite a pair of outstanding players in David Alaba and Marko Arnautovic, Austria disappointed hugely in Euro 2016 and went home with a solitary point. They also failed to qualify for the World Cup, although this year has seen them pick up big victories in friendly games against the likes of Uruguay, Russia, Germany and Sweden.
Even so, I’d expect the Austrians to finish as runners-up in this group in comfortable fashion. Slovenia have been on a slide as of late, failing to win a game in the Nations League and finishing below Cyprus; Israel showed flashes of potential but little else against Scotland and Albania, and Macedonia and Latvia are levels below despite Macedonia’s Nations League group win in League D.
Barring a major upset – likely perpetrated by Israel or Macedonia judging on recent form – this should be a straightforward group for both Poland and Austria, and I’d expect Poland to come out on top.
Prediction: Poland and Austria to qualify
Group H: France, Iceland, Turkey, Albania, Moldova, Andorra
Despite so-so results in the Nations League – they missed out on winning their group, which was taken by the resurgent Netherlands – World Cup winners France could hardly have asked for a softer draw here. Avoiding tough Pot 2 teams like Denmark, Wales and Germany, France have instead been faced with Iceland, who appear to be on a major slide, and Turkey, who were also relegated in the Nations League.
We all know how much depth France have in terms of talent – names like Varane, Mbappe, Griezmann, Dembele, Umtiti, Lloris and Pogba simply roll off the tongue – so if they even drop a single point in this group I’d be shocked.
That should leave the runner-up slot, and in all honesty, it could be anyone’s. Well, it won’t likely go to Moldova or Andorra, as both sides finished at the lower end of their groups in the Nations League’s bottom division, League D.
Iceland are probably the favourites; they surprised everyone with their run at Euro 2016 and although the World Cup wasn’t as successful, they still picked up a respectable draw with Argentina. Their results in the Nations League and in their friendly fixtures suggest a slide though – they haven’t actually won a game since October 2017 and recently drew with Qatar of all sides.
Turkey haven’t really looked great either, though; a strong 2-3 win over Sweden in the Nations League was the only high point of that campaign – they also lost twice to Russia and then to Sweden in the reverse fixture, resulting in their relegation. And they notably lost twice to Iceland in World Cup qualifiers, too.
That leaves Albania, and to be frank they simply don’t appear to have the talent in their ranks to bother the top three sides, despite a recent 1-0 victory over Wales. I suspect Iceland will likely edge Turkey to take the runner-up spot, but Turkey could just as easily force Iceland into 3rd if Iceland’s slide continues.
Prediction: France and Iceland to qualify
Group I: Belgium, Russia, Scotland, Cyprus, Kazakhstan, San Marino
Like France, World Cup semi-finalists Belgium should have things relatively easy in what looks like a soft group. Russia did well at home in the World Cup and Scotland have looked surprisingly resurgent recently, but realistically Belgium – who haven’t lost any of their incredible talent that includes Eden Hazard, Romelu Lukaku and Kevin de Bruyne – are light years ahead of both.
San Marino – who finished bottom of their Nations League group in League D and didn’t score a goal – remain probably the weakest team in Europe and will likely act as whipping boys to the rest of the group. Kazakhstan and Cyprus will likely also struggle judging on their Nations League performances, which leaves Russia and Scotland.
Russia followed up their strong World Cup campaign by nearly winning their Nations League group in League B. All they needed from the final match was a point, but a loss to Sweden instead meant the Swedes pipped them due to superior goal difference. The firepower of Artem Dzyuba, Denis Cheryshev and Alan Dzagoev makes them dangerous, although they’re probably too fragile to beat Belgium.
Scotland meanwhile finally have a little bit of momentum following their Nations League wins over Albania and Israel – wins that allowed them to top their group and claim a playoff spot for Euro 2020 – but it’s worth noting that they lost to Israel in October, too. But in Ryan Fraser and Andrew Robertson, they do have some genuine Premier League level talent.
The Tartan Army could be capable of springing an upset on Russia here, therefore qualifying for their first major tournament since the 1998 World Cup, but their history of slip-ups against smaller sides – such as their loss to Georgia in Euro 2016 qualification – means Russia should probably still be favoured.
Prediction: Belgium and Russia to qualify
Group J: Italy, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Finland, Greece, Armenia, Liechtenstein
Italy’s failure to qualify for the World Cup was one of the biggest shockers of 2017, and unlike the resurgent Netherlands, it doesn’t appear that they’ve righted the ship just yet. They finished second in their Nations League group, but most of their games were disappointing, as they only scored a total of 2 goals throughout the campaign.
They’re clearly not lacking in talent, however, with the likes of Lorenzo Insigne, Marco Verratti and Gianluigi Donnarumma, and that means that with two teams going through each group, they should make it to Euro 2020 comfortably. Whether they can finish above Bosnia & Herzegovina might be up for question, though.
Bosnia have had a successful Nations League campaign, earning promotion into League A thanks to their victory in a group containing Austria and Northern Ireland, and their talismanic striker Edin Dzeko continues to score goals, hitting 3 in the recent fixtures. Their side isn’t full of star power, but they’re clearly a solid outfit.
Finland also won their Nations League group, but that was in League C, and losses to Greece and Hungary in their final two games were largely disappointing. That win by Greece should give them the faith that they can overcome Finland again here, but neither side seems capable of bothering Italy or Bosnia.
Armenia meanwhile picked up 3 Nations League wins – albeit over weak opposition – and while I doubt they can defeat Italy or Bosnia, they could be a difficult test for any of the other sides in this group, particularly playing at home in Yerevan. Liechtenstein meanwhile will likely finish rock bottom judging on their own poor record and Nations League form.
Overall this should be a comfortable group for Italy in particular and probably Bosnia too.
Prediction: Italy and Bosnia & Herzegovina to qualify
