FIFA World Cup 2014: Analysing Argentina's progress to the final

Lionel Messi is key to Argentina’s hopes of winning the World Cup

The teams for the World Cup final have been decided, and a match between the competition’s most consistent team overall, and this edition’s most consistent team promises to be a cracker. Germany have managed to dazzle in some games and get the job done in others and a semifinal demolition of the hosts sees them as favourites to win the Championship for the 4th time, to equal Italy and leave themselves just one title below Brazil in the overall tally.

In stark contrast, Argentina’s road to the final has been one where no match has been decided by more than one goal. Their entire campaign has seen them pass under the radar. They play contrasting styles too, as Germany look to counter-attack briskly and have typically a cumulative effort from the whole team, while the Argentinians look to be solid in midfield and are over reliant on Lionel Messi to provide the spark going forward.

In part one of this analysis, we’ll look at Argentina (going alphabetically) and their road to the final, and what their chances are against the now rampant Germans. The onus is on them to stop Germany from being the first Europeans to win the Cup in South America and it is something they won’t take lightly. Adding to that is the fact that they are playing in the backyard of their eternal rivals Brazil and that it has been 28 long years since their last triumph, so motivation will definitely not be an issue.

The Lionel Messi Factor

Any talk of this Argentina team would start with Messi and the threat he brings to the opposition on the field. Having seen his on-field presence in the group stages where he single handedly took them through to the next round with four goals, the knockout stages have seen a difference in his impact. A quick look at overall statistics for teams playing them in the knock out stages against statistics of how they played against Argentina shows that managers seemed to have sacrificed some of their attacking strengths to ensure that he didn’t get too much of the ball.

	Switzerland		Belgium		Netherlands
	Average in other games	vs Argentina	Average in other games	vs Argentina	Average in other games	vs Argentina
Goals	2.33	0	1.5	0	2.4	0
Total Shots	17	14	20.25	10	15	7
Shots on Goal	9	7	13.25	4	11.2	4
Corners	4.66	5	8.75	4	6.2	4
Possession	50.66 (%)	39 (%)	53.75%	49%	50%	53%
Yellow Cards	0.33	2	1.25	2	1.4	2
Red Cards	0	0	0.25	0	0	0
Fouls	13	28	18	14	18.4	15

Stats courtesy espnfc.com & fifa.com

In an attempt to stifle the Barcelona star, teams have foregone a bit of their midfield strength and they were happy to sit back and try to hit Argentina on the counter-attack. This World Cup has shown that teams that approach the game with this mentality have done well and it did seem like a good strategy, but hasn’t worked so far. Forwards from Switzerland, Belgium and Netherlands will testify that they didn’t see enough of the ball in their games against Argentina.

This could be attributed to more defensive midfields that lined up against Argentina, creating a gap between the midfield and the attack thus leaving the front men isolated. Typically, football games are won and lost in the midfield, but the form of Javier Mascherano has ensured that the Albiceleste are very solid in that area.

Defensive solidity

Javier Mascherano has been essential to Argentina’s tight defense

Having not conceded a single goal in the knock out stages, Argentina have been resolute in defense and have been able to reduce the counterattacking abilities of their opponents without having to sacrifice much of their attacking game. In a World Cup that has been pretty free scoring, this aspect might prove to be a decisive factor in determining where the trophy is headed.

While the way teams have lined up against them may be a factor here, one must give the defense the credit they deserve for having managed to contain opposition forwards, as their positioning has been brilliant and they have been making key interceptions all along. Javier Mascherano has had a tremendous World Cup, and has played a key role in keeping those clean sheets, as well as bringing the ball out from defense.

So far Argentina have shown the ability to play against teams that set up to play fast, counterattacking football, and that might just be the key to beating Germany on Sunday. With each passing round the opposition’s ability to hit them on the break has only improved, and it will be the same in the final as well, but they have shown that they are capable of nipping swift counter-attacks in the bud, something which Germany did a lot against Brazil.

Bench Strength

The South Americans have been hampered throughout the tournament by injuries, especially in attacking positions. Injuries to Aguero first and then Di Maria later seemed to rob them of key alternative attacking abilities, but they have persevered through all of it to make the final. With Higuain getting off the mark against Belgium, Aguero’s return from injury and the hope that Di Maria will be able to play some part of the final, Argentina have the good options available in attack and that can only bolster their chances.

Summary

Against a team that has scored roughly three goals a game (17 in 6 matches), Argentina are most certainly going to have their task cutout. Having already scored one goal more in one match less than the previous edition, Germany are a side on the ascendancy, and stopping them is going to take a champion effort. But numbers and statistics can only take them that far, and everything goes out of the equation in the World Cup final.

A lot of it is going to depend on the thoughts percolating through Joachim Loew’s mind at the moment. The confidence from thrashing Brazil 7-1 might make him believe too much in his squad and he may not make for a special case against Messi, and that could prove disastrous. If he, like managers in the last three rounds, chooses to sacrifice some forward play to counter the threat of Messi, that could leave them a little short as well.

With Germany now favourites to win the Cup, Loew has some thinking to do, and that’s why managers earn so much, the decisions, they take have that kind of significance. Argentina have shown this campaign that they are happy to stick to a standard way of play and let the other team do all the thinking and the final is going to be just the same.