FIFA World Cup 2014: Analysing Germany’s progress to the final

Thomas Muller has been crucial to Germany’s attacking ruthlessness

The World Cup final is almost upon us and it promises to be a cracker among two heavyweights of World Football. Both Argentina and Germany have flattered to deceive in recent years and their last successes in this tournament date back to 1986 and 1990 respectively. Germany have had a far better record compared to Argentina in the ensuing period, while Argentina have struggled to find an identity post Maradona, and it is only now with Lionel Messi performing well that they have combined as a unit.

Year	Argentina	Germany
1994	Round of 16	QF
1998	QF	QF
2002	Group Stage	Finalists
2006	QF	SF
2010	QF	SF

Argentina and Germany at the World Cup (last 20 years)

In part two of this analysis, we’ll look at Germany and their progress to the finals, and what glimpses it offers us regarding their chances against the Argentinians. Germany can be the first European team to win the world cup on South American soil and it’s a prospect that they will relish. Under Joachim Low, they have shown great flair over the years and in this version they have also shown glimpses of that steely determination that German teams were famous for in the past. The ability to play attractive, fast paced football combined with the ability to play hard when the situation demands will certainly make them favourites for the final.

The Joachim Low Factor

Having been installed as the assistant coach in 2004 under Klinsmann, Low has been instrumental in transforming their style of play, and to date that remains his biggest achievement. German teams of the past were often described as professional, because there was no other word to describe them. They were famous for their 1-0 victories, and could keep the ball for long periods. They were known to tackle hard, and close down games early.

He carried the attacking philosophy forward when he became head coach after the World Cup in 2006, and the team has only gotten better. He took them to the finals of Euro 2008, the semifinals of World Cup 2010, and the semifinals of Euro 2012, Low has had a period of great results but without any silverware. Reverses in key games have seen questions asked about him still being in charge at this edition, but the German authorities have shown their faith in him and once again he has delivered.

Joachim Low has guided his team calmly to the finals

An astute tactician, Low has made minor changes in the team to allow for adding a determination to win tight games, slightly altering his beautiful attacking philosophy when required. The knowhow of being able to get out of tough situations, and the ability to really damage the opposition (demonstrated by the 4-0 mauling of Portugal and the 7-1 crushing of Brazil) have made this team the team to beat in this edition.

His acumen will be tested though, in this final, when he must decide how to counter the threat that Lionel Messi will be. Sacrificing attacking elements to contain Messi might result in a blunt attack, and yet, he must be aware that if Messi is not contained, it could be just as disastrous if not more. There is no doubt that Low’s tactical analysis of Argentina will have a huge bearing on this match.

Consistency and the final push

There is no doubt that Germany have been the most consistent team in the World Cup overall. 3 titles, 4 times runners up, 4 third places and one 4th place finish out of 18 tournaments is an enviable record, but the fact that Italy have one more title means that this team must finish the job to retain the title of the best European team overall.

Having abandoned the cautious approach of the past, this lot have the opportunity to define how football will be played in Germany for years to come, and they will most certainly be up to the task. Being consistent is great, but winning requires two things in addition, strength of character, and a little bit of luck at times. A final might come down to a test of nerves, especially if it goes to penalties. Argentina have shown that they can deal with it, but the Germans haven’t been pushed that far yet. Will that be a key factor?

The thin line between confidence and over confidence

On the back of the crushing 7-1 defeat they handed out to Brazil in the semifinal, Germany have every right to enter the final brimming with confidence. In beating Brazil and Portugal with ease, the Germans have shown ruthlessness against opposition that they weren’t overwhelming favourites against, but they took their time against the others.

Argentina have shown the ability to negate quick counterattacks, and if Germany get over confident sitting back and waiting to hit on to counter, they might just find it a tougher proposition. If they can keep their feet grounded (and there has been no evidence so far that they can’t), and play this game on merit, they should be able to get the job done at the Maracana.

Summary

Germany have been strong throughout the tournament, but they are coming up against an Argentinian team that has managed (only just) to win all their matches. They have seemed a little lacking against teams that lined up defensively against them, and lethal against teams that have dared to attack them. As always tactics and the midfield battle will play a huge part in deciding where the Cup is headed.

On current evidence though, it looks like the first European team to win the World Cup on South American soil will be Germany. If Brazil’s eternal rivals Argentina triumph in Brazil it might be a bitter pill to swallow for the locals, but it might be a bigger one being the first South American country to see a European team win.