In little under a year’s time, the 2018 World Cup will begin in Russia.
Thirty-two sides will do battle for the right to lift the Jules Rimet trophy, though only the hosts, Iran and five-time winners Brazil have already qualified. Nevertheless, with 12 months until the competition begins, there is already an elite group of countries eyeing the prize.
Based upon their form, qualities, their historical record at big competitions and their ability to perform well when playing away from familiar conditions, here are the top 10 sides with a year remaining before the big event begins.
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#10 Colombia
Colombia are ranked fifth in the FIFA Ranking and are virtually certain to finish in a qualification place in the CONMEBOL table.
Their squad is vastly experienced and has benefitted, in particular, from having Radamel Falcao back in form to add to their firepower, while they also possess a world-class playmaker in the form of James Rodriguez, who is perhaps even more integral to their efforts than the Monaco forward.
One concern about the South American side, though, is their ability to beat high-quality teams away from home. Against the top four sides in qualifying, besides themselves, they have earned just one point on the road.
Playing in Russia will pose a very different challenge to them, and though many of their players are now European based, their record raises big questions.
#9 Italy
Italy are the ultimate tournament team, offering a remarkable ability to defy poor form and low expectations to punch, seemingly, above their weight. As such, they should not be discounted as potential World Cup winners next summer.
In 2014, they were surprisingly ousted in the group stage by Uruguay and Costa Rica, however, but at Euro 2016 they were only edged out by Germany in the quarter-finals after a lengthy penalty shoot-out.
It may be that they need to negotiate a playoff before qualifying for Russia, as they trail Spain in Group G and have to visit their rivals in a crucial match in early September.
While there is a great deal of experience in the side, particularly the defence, it seems likely they will lean on Torino attacker Andrea Belotti for goals.
#8 Belgium
Euro 2016 semi-finalists, Belgium should be considered a dark horse to win the World Cup, particularly as they have the likes of Eden Hazard, Dries Mertens, Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku to lead their charge.
It seems very probable that the will qualify, having won five of their six qualifying games to date, opening up an impressive four-point lead over Greece in the meantime. Indeed, during these fixtures, they have looked a very strong package overall, notably hammering Bosnia-Herzegovina 4-0 at home.
A lack of big-tournament experience could count against Roberto Martinez’s men while keeping Vincent Kompany fit promises to be a headache. They are not ranked seven by FIFA for no reason and will prove obstinate opponents.
#7 Spain
World champions in 2010, Spain are aiming to repeat that feat after a disappointing 2014 World Cup and somewhat flat display at Euro 2016, where they were ousted by Italy, the side they now narrowly lead in their UEFA qualifying Group G to reach Russia.
Their steel will be tested when they play host to Italy in a critical match in September, yet the side currently ranked 10 by FIFA would appear to have more quality in their ranks than their rivals. Certainly, the friendly win over France in March suggests they can go anywhere and thrive.
Questions remain over their cutting edge. Diego Costa has rarely shown for the national side what he has at club level, though is improving, meaning that Alvaro Morata and Pedro have a great deal of responsibility. Andres Iniesta’s influence in the midfield will be critical, along with that of Sergio Busquets.
#6 Argentina
A year out from the World Cup, Argentina still represent something of an unknown quantity. They find themselves fifth in the South American qualifying section, and while that is an improved position, there is as yet no guarantee that they will even make it to Russia. Things, however, do seem to be improving for the side ranked second by FIFA.
They defeated Brazil 1-0 in a recent friendly played in Australia, while new head coach Jorge Sampaoli should install the kind of attacking system that will allow Argentina to get the best out of their myriad of offensive weapons, led by Lionel Messi.
The Argentines, though, had made a habit of choking when it really matters. In each of the last three summers they have made it to big final, all of which they have lost. Perhaps a year away from major competition will help them to shake off that complex.
#5 Chile
Chile are the reigning Copa America champions, winning the competition in both 2015 and 2016 when it was played out as the Copa Centario. Like Argentina, there is no guarantee that they will even make it to Russia, but they are better placed in qualifying, with a home match against their great rivals to come next.
This is a squad that knows each other well, in part thanks to major tournament football in each of the last four summers. There is also a great deal of quality, with Alexis Sanchez and Arturo Vidal the chief talismans for Juan Antonio Pizzi’s side.
They also have the advantage of playing in Russia this summer at the Confederations Cup, which should help them acclimatise and know better what to expect in 12 months. It is a small edge, but it could be important.
#4 France
There is perhaps not a country in the world that possesses a squad as talented as Didier Deschamps. France have a ridiculous depth to their ranks, but equally that seems to pose something of a problem as the coach has not worked out how best to use the players he has at his disposal.
Additionally, they suddenly find themselves under pressure in qualifying after a dramatic late Hugo Lloris error against Sweden meant they suffered a 2-1 loss, having led 1-0 in that match. They should yet qualify, but their task has been made far more complicated.
In terms of raw power, though, France are a team to be feared, as they showed beating England 3-2 with just 10 men. They are not reliant on any one player and have phenomenal quality all over the field. With Ousmane Dembele and Kylian Mbappe liable to improve over the course of the next year, they could be a really fearsome force. If Deschamps can harness his side, they could win the competition for just a second time.
#3 Portugal
European champions Portugal showed their tournament qualities last summer as they won Euro 2016. Fernando Santos’ side, incredibly, won only one of their six matches in regulation time, yet the mental strength of their players allowed them to win through after extra-time and, when required, penalties.
At times they were rather dour to watch, but with Cristiano Ronaldo leading their line, they possess a remarkable X-factor and the best player in the world currently. He is not alone, however. Andre Silva has emerged into one of the most exciting young players in the game, while Bernardo Silva will be better for his Premier League experience at Manchester City.
An aging defence could undermine their challenge, while there are only so many occasions you can ride your luck as they did a touch in France last summer. Additionally, they may have to come through a playoff as they trail Switzerland in their qualifying group, despite many strong displays.
#2 Brazil
Tite’s Brazil side have already booked their place at the World Cup finals with a quite spectacular performance in qualifying. With four games of the CONMEBOL group yet to play, they have opened up a nine-point gap to Colombia in second.
After losing their opening qualifier 2-0 in Chile, they have simply smashed their opponents out of the water at virtually every turn, with a 3-0 home win over Argentina and a 4-1 victory in Uruguay among their most impressive displays. They have scored more goals than anyone else, spreading them around nicely, and have conceded the fewest.
After buckling spectacularly under the pressure of Germany in the World Cup they hosted in 2016, there will be certain ghosts that need exorcising before they can win the title, however.
#1 Germany
Defending champions Germany are, with Brazil and Spain, one of only three sides to have won the World Cup outside their home continent, and will go to Russia 2018 as the defending champions. Their record in qualifying has been flawless to date, scoring 27 goals and conceding only one, looking every inch contenders to win the title again.
Even if they struggle at the Confederations Cup this summer, they should still be regarded as one of the favourites to lift the trophy, having elected to leave virtually all of their top names at home to be given a rest before what is sure to be a manic 12 months.
Joachim Low’s side has quality, depth and experience, and with the competition taking place in Europe, they should be considered favourites.
