Five reasons why Arsenal are serious title contenders

Arsenal look like serious title contenders this season

Sitting four points clear at the top of the Premier League, with ten wins from 13 games, Arsenal have had their most promising start to the season for many a year, and actually look like having a chance of ending the infamous dry spell that has seen them go eight seasons without a trophy.

However, many are still waiting for the meltdown – for normal service to be resumed, and the Gunners to drop to their usual fourth place spot. The bookmakers have Manchester City as title favourites, with many placing Chelsea above Arsenal as well. But are they right? Is it time to start taking Arsenal seriously?

Arsenal midfielder Mikel Arteta says he can understand the scepticism, but that he believes his teammates are capable of continuing the run, saying:

“People are not talking about us but it is normal because we haven’t won the Premier League for many years so people are still reluctant to consider us title fighters but we know what we have in the dressing room,” said Arteta. “We know the type of desire and ambition we have at the moment and we have to keep going. We are doing great now.”

Arteta himself is a large part of the main driver of Arsenal’s success – their midfield strength. Only Swansea and Manchester City have completed more passes than Arsenal this season, with Manchester City just pipping Arsenal to second largely by virtue of some appalling defensive performances from Norwich and Tottenham. The Gunners have dictated play in every game that they have played this season, as has become the Arsenal way under Arsene Wenger.

Mesut Ozil

In Mesut Ozil they have the most creative player in the league. Ozil has laid on six assists for his teammates – from all over the pitch – as the team pulled out a four point lead over their rivals.

Ozil has been part of a midfield that benefits from a plethora of world class players. Santi Cazorla, Aaron Ramsey, Jack Wilshere, Arteta, Mathieu Flamini and Tomas Rosicky have joined the German in midfield areas this season, to finally put the lazy myth that Arsenal have a weak squad to bed.

That the Gunners have breezed to the top of the league without the injured Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Lukas Podolski is testament to the strength of the squad at Wenger’s disposal. The returning trio will add another dimension to the side as they return, making Arsenal even more of a force to be reckoned with.

At the moment, success can be gained by stopping the Arsenal midfield passing machine from playing. Manchester United executed the perfect game-plan in their recent victory over the Gunners, by pressing their midfield high up the pitch and drawing mistakes, before sitting back and defending for their lives.

They were allowed to do this as all five of Arsenal’s midfield players were centrally leaning ball players, but the returning pace of Walcott and Oxlade-Chamberlain will make this a far more difficult thing to do. A high line will become riskier with the pace of Walcott in behind, whilst the width he provides will stop teams stifling the centre of the pitch as a way to stop Arsenal.

Ramsey started wide against United, and his Action Areas (above) shows the lack of width he provided, playing into the hands of a team that wanted to close the space in central areas.

Walcott, on the other hand, provides the pace to prevent a high line, and the width to draw defenders wide – shown on his Action Areas map against Fulham earlier in the season – both of which increase the central areas in which Arsenal’s central midfield players can play from as defenders will defend deeper and wider.

A lack of a plan B has been one area in which Arsenal came in for criticism after the United game, but with the returning pace in wide areas they can add another dimension to their game and sustain the title charge.

Return of Flamini

Without capturing the imagination of fans at the time, Flamini’s return slipped under the radar slightly, but is a key reason behind their upturn in form. For the first time since Alex Song left, Arsenal have a midfielder who is more comfortable at defending.

Combined with the return to fitness and form of Rosicky in the second half of last season, and the ever-reliable Arteta, Flamini has helped to solidify the soft centre that has plagued Arsenal’s midfield in recent years and removed a key weakness.

Last season saw Wenger attempt to put square pegs in the round hole next to Mikel Arteta, but the return of Rosicky and signing of Flamini has prevented this happening this time around, improving the defensive shape and releasing the likes of Wilshere and Ramsey to attack more.

The Defence

The midfield shape has set the foundations for the other main reason behind Arsenal’s surge: their solid defence. The solidity of their deep-lying midfield area has restricted the traffic towards a resurgent Wojciech Szcz?sny, and means that the defence have had the third fewest Defensive Actions to make.

Alongside this, the partnership of Per Mertesacker and Laurent Koscielny has been rock solid and has helped Arsenal to the title of the league’s tightest defence. They have only conceded ten goals, and with one goal conceded in their last five league games -alongside their improved midfield shape – this looks unlikely to change any time soon.

Chances Taken

Whilst midfield and defence are two of the key drivers that suggest Arsenal can sustain their assault on the title, their attacking issues are well proven. Olivier Giroud is currently the team’s only striker worth having, and seeing the number 23 flash up on the 4th official’s board in the 85th minute regularly reminds Arsenal fans of the elephant in the room that is their lack of back-up.

In short, without Giroud they would be stuffed. Whilst many of us may currently be counting down the days until Christmas, Arsenal fans may want to delay the opening of advent calendar’s for a few days and use them to count down to the opening of the transfer window and hopeful arrival of a striker instead.

Going Forward

Whilst Giroud has started the season well, he is not in the class of a Sergio Aguero or Luis Suarez and this makes Arsenal look weak up-top. The stats would at first glance appear to back this up.

Arsenal have scored 10 fewer goals than Manchester City and are only seventh on chances created. Seventh in chances created but second in goals scored could suggest a hot streak in front of goal that may well dry up. However this isn’t true in Arsenal’s case.

Delving deeper into the murky world of Squawka’s statistics shows that while Arsenal aren’t creating the chances that their rivals are, they are creating better ones.

They are second on total chances created, but 19th on shots from outside the box, suggesting that their 45% shot accuracy – the highest in the league – is down to taking shots from positions closer to goal – the age old Arsenal habit of walking the ball into the goal rather than an unsustainable hot streak.

There’s no hiding from the fact that there is no back up for Giroud, but should the Frenchman remain injury-free then Arsenal are here to stay as a title challenger. Their strength in depth, particularly in midfield, and their ability to monopolise the ball and protect their defence means that they look a better side than in recent years.

They face Manchester City and Chelsea in successive games before Christmas, but if they can remain top heading out of the festive period then they will be even more firmly in the driving seat for the title.