World Cup 2018: Five Tactical Points that will decide the World Cup Final

The biggest game in football will take place in Moscow on Sunday. World Cup finals are usually not remembered for their high scoring nature: the last final to feature more than two goals was the 1998 World Cup final when France defeated Brazil 3-0. A Good Omen for the Les Blues? Perhaps

However, this doesn’t mean that World Cup finals aren’t entertaining: they are intense tactical battles where any small mistake can cost your team. The pressure is perhaps most on the managers: Zlatko Dalic and Didier Deschamps can make or break their careers with their tactics in the game. So what are some tactical factors that will decide the game?

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#1 How Croatia handle Kylian Mbappe

Perhaps the most important storyline in the World Cup final will be the performance of Kylian Mbappe. The 19-year-old has been one of the best players in the tournament, announcing his arrival on the world stage. If Croatia cannot stop Mbappe in any meaningful manner, then they will have little hope of winning the tournament.

The problem for the Vatreni is that Mbappe is likely to match up with their weakest defensive player Ivan Strinic. It is a weakness that Croatia’s two previous opponents tried to exploit as Kieran Trippier and Mario Fernandes gave Strinic a horrible time on Croatia’s left. Among defenders who made the semi-finals, no player has been dribbled past on more occasions than Strinic. That combined with Mbappe’s dribbling (fifth in the tournament) is a lethal combination for Croatia.

Manager Zlatko Dalic will have to fix this in some way or the other. One way would be for defensive midfielder Marcelo Brozovic to cover on the left. However, Mbappe likes to stick to the touchline (as a right-footed right-winger) which would force Brozovic to come right to the flank. This might create space for Paul Pogba and Antoine Griezmann down the middle.

A wiser move might be to play another defensive midfielder in Milan Badelj. For this, Dalic would have to sacrifice the attacking quality of Ante Rebic but if it helps in stopping, then it will be worth it. While this would leave Croatia with one winger, who says formations need to be symmetrical?

#2 Luka Modric vs N’Golo Kante

Modric will be closely monitored by Kante

If Mbappe has any competition for the Golden Ball, it comes from Luka Modric, who has shown his class as one of the best midfielders in the world. Modric hasn’t had same sort of talent around him as he does in Real Madrid but has still been incredibly effective. The Croatia captain has created 16 chances for his teammates in the tournament- only three players have created more.

Yet, if there is one man who can stop Modric’s brilliance, then it is N’Golo Kante. The Chelsea midfielder ranks second in interceptions, first in passes blocked, sixth in successful tackles and most in overall ball recoveries. It is that energy and intelligence that can prevent Modric from dominating the game.

However it may not be as simple as that: Modric loves to sit deep within his own half. Most of Modric’s touches in the semi-final came within his own half on the right side. From that position, Modric can help control the game while also using long balls to get behind the French defence (he has created seven chances through long balls in the tournament).

What makes this troubling for Les Blues is that if Kante tried to pressure Modric within Croatia’s half, then this will create spaces behind Kante for Rakitic and Croatia’s wingers to exploit. Instead, France may rely on defensive midfielder turned winger Blaise Matuidi to pressure Modric. This may reduce the effectiveness of French counter-attacks. This midfield battle will indeed decide the game.

#3 DM Paul Pogba or CAM Paul Pogba?

Will Paul Pogba be given a free role to attack the Croatian defense?

If one were to watch Paul Pogba’s performances throughout the tournament, one would see two completely different players. One is a dynamic central attacking midfielder (CAM) who was France’s creator throughout the group stages: making the through pass that led to a penalty against Australia, scoring the winner in that game (though it was eventually credited as an own goal) and creating the initial chance for Mbappe’s goal against Peru.

The other is a solid defensive midfielder (DM) who has been key for Les Blues in the knockout stages: supporting N’Golo Kante in breaking up opposition attacks and then beginning counter-attacks. These transformations have been invaluable for France as Pogba has done what the team required.

It is clear that these changes are due to the instructions of Didier Deschamps. So which Pogba will Deschamps play on Sunday? If he plays the attacking midfielder then Brozovic will have his hands full in dealing with the Manchester United player. Moreover, his dynamism might open up gaps for the likes of Mbappe, Griezmann and Olivier Giroud. Yet, it would leave gaps for the likes of Modric and Ivan Rakitic to exploit in midfield.

On the other hand, if Deschamps decides to go for the defensive midfielder, then Pogba can help break up attacks like he did against Belgium (when he made three tackles and two clearances). Pogba could help Kante in disrupting Modric and Rakitic. However, it would reduce the attacking effectiveness of the French side. Deschamps’ choice between DM Pogba and CAM Pogba is one that could potentially define the game and he can’t afford to get it wrong.

#4 The Ivan Perisic Question

Perisic has been Croatia's most important attacking outlet in this tournament

This is a question for both teams. For Croatia, the question is if they will get the Perisic who played against England. That player was an absolute menace, wrecking the English defence over and over again in a manner that eventually had to yield results. He scored the equalizer with a brilliant karate-kick, hit the post after another excellent move, delivered a brilliant cross for a Mandzukic chance before assisting the winner.

Yet, there is also the possibility that Perisic is wasteful and does not have the same impact that he did against England. In Croatia’s two previous games before England (against Russia and Denmark), Perisic only made one accurate cross and was uninfluential.

What makes this so important is the fact that Croatia rely significantly on Perisic to create attacking chances. Despite their excellent midfield, Croatia have crossed the ball more than any team in the tournament, only 18.5% of which of have reached a Croatian. Thus they rely on their wingers: in fact, 45% of their attacks come from Perisic’s left side. If he is not effective, then Croatia’s attack will struggle.

If Perisic is on his game, then he create a problem for France. If there is a weakness in France’s defence, it is their right-back: Benjamin Pavard who will likely be matched up with Perisic. If Perisic can use his left foot to trouble Pavard, then Raphael Varane will need to cover for the Stuttgart defender thus creating space for Mario Mandzukic down the middle.

#5 French Set-Pieces

Umtiti and Varane have been vital both in defense and while attacking during set-pieces

Throughout the competition, we have seen the value of set-pieces. England manager Gareth Southgate famously ‘conquered’ the art as England used several previously designed ‘plays’ to great effectiveness. Yet, what has gone unnoticed is the fact that Didier Deschamps’ team have also used set-pieces rather effectively especially in the latter stage of the competition.

In fact, both of France’s opening goals in the last two games came from thundering headers from their centre-backs in set-pieces. In the quarter-final against Uruguay, Raphael Varane’s brilliant near-post header gave them the lead. In the semi-final, Samuel Umtiti also reached the near post for the winner against Belgium.

This would not be a major problem if Croatia were not so weak at defending set-plays. The Vatreni have only conceded five goals in the tournament, but three of them have come from set-pieces (including Denmark’s long throw-ins as a set-piece). They will need to improve on those plays if they are to become the ninth team to win the World Cup.