Football as a series of cock-ups – and what this means for the future of RVP

In the dim and distant past I was told by the best historian I ever had the pleasure to meet (Arthur Hicks, Head of History Poole Grammar School), that there were three approaches to understanding what happened in history. These three approaches, he added, were also a good way of understanding what happens in the world around us today.

Mr Hicks, who had the patience to teach me A level history, never spoke on football and yet, the more I reflect on matters, the more I believe this approach should be seen as giving us a real insight into what is happening with the game we follow.

The approaches to understanding the past, present and the future that were outlined to me in my A level history course were:

1. Inevitability

2. Plans, plots and conspiracies

3. Cock-ups.

To take them very briefly (and you’ll have to forgive the simplifying, otherwise we’ll be here all day and night)…

The “Inevitability” approach suggests that by and large it doesn’t matter what you do, the outcomes are bound to happen. It is the Marxist approach of historic inevitability (the workers revolution will triumph because capitalism is full of contradictions). Christianity has the same vision – it doesn’t matter what mankind does, ultimately the story told in Revelations will come to pass. I suspect Islam and Judaism are of the same inclination but I am not qualified to say.

Plans, plots and conspiracies suggest that politicians, football club owners, players, agents and the rest of us, work out what they want, and then work out the best way of getting there. It is an obvious part of life. I want a new job so I read the lists of job offers. Mr Wenger sees that football is moving in a particular way, and from his analysis decides that ever faster moving attacking mid-fielders and wide front-men is the way to victory, and so focusses on finding and buying them. The plan becomes a plot or conspiracy if others become secretly involved.

As for Cock-ups, this is the bit we normally ignore, but upon which Mr Hicks placed a strong emphasis. He used the example of the Gun Power Plot of 1605 – a failed assassination attempt against King James I of England by a group of English Catholics involving the blowing up of Parliament. A conspiracy because lots of men were involved, and a cock-up because it all went wrong and the Protestants became even stronger.

I am not going to suggest that Inevitability has any part to play in football, but I do think that much of football is to be explained by “Plans, plots and conspiracies” and that many of them turn into “cock-ups.”

The Malaga story is a perfect example. You’ll recall Malaga got into a financial mess and Sheikh Abdullah Al-Thani of the Qatari Royal Family became the new owner.

Then on 1st June 2011 the Club signed a deal with Unesco to become an ambassador of peace, equality and sporting values amongst young people all over the world. The following season the club gained fourth place in the League and qualified for the Champs League for the first time ever.

But somehow the owner lost interest, players wages were not paid, transfer fees were not honoured, and as I write this it seems we have signed Santi Cazorla for whom Malaga still owe money to Villarreal CF.

So, this is a plan gone wrong – a cock-up. Was it a conspiracy also? In effect a conspiracy only requires two or more people working together to do something underhand. Was Malaga or its owner, or even Unesco involved in this? Possible because it seems strange that given the wealth of Sheikh Abdullah Al-Thani that he should not pull out. But we don’t know.

There is a strong argument among historians that all plans, plots and conspiracies end up as cock-ups, simply because these plans involve people – and people either get things wrong or have their own interests at heart; interests which are the opposite to those of the original planner.

With this in mind consider Van Persie.

Arsenal don’t offer him a long term contract extension prior to 2010/11 because of his long injury record. The club doesn’t want to be caught out paying a player for another few years who might only put in a few performances each season. They suspect that with another season broken by injury RVP will agree to a deal.

But the plan goes wrong, RVP plays the season of his life, and then asks for a five year extension at £200,000 a week, plus a £10m re-signing on fee. He does this on the basis that Man C, Juve, Chelsea and Man U will fight Arsenal for his services, and the rest of his life will be financially secure. To cover his tracks RVP says this an argument about the vision of the club.

So for Arsenal it is now a cock-up, for RVP it is a plan. No conspiracy in sight.

But Chelsea have no interest, and the others don’t really seem too excited by the idea. Man U step up plans to make Moura their top signing, Man City are worried about unloading players first and are warned by Uefa about FFP, and RVP would have had no idea that just as he was saying no to Arsenal, Agnelli of Juve was talking about the end of the mega transfer + salary deal, which is exactly what RVP had in mind.

So this looks more and more like a second cock-up – Arsenal’s plan went wrong, and now RVP’s plan is going wrong. (Still not a conspiracy since no one suggests that Juve, Man C, Man U, Chelsea all conspired not to buy RVP).

Arsenal have every right not to sell RVP – something that may not have been in RVP’s thinking. One can imagine his agent saying, “of course they’ll deal – look at Cesc and Nasri.” But this year Arsenal are looking firm, and are buying in advance of the season. Two players for sure, one having had the medical, and one at Real Madrid given permission to talk.

Now we see a really bad case scenario – a mega cock-up for RVP. Supposing Arsenal keep him, and he gets injured, or stays fit and has a poor season, which results in him being dropped (Arsenal do have a lot of choice in the forward line now). What then of the £10m signing on fee and £10.4m a year for five years? None. He might even be allowed to leave Arsenal as a free agent and struggle to find a buyer, although Stoke might have him.

If that sounds strange remember that although RVP has put in some staggering performances before last season, he could not be relied upon, because he kept getting injured. So any club interested had to have a top quality back up. A player does not have just his last season – he has his history.

I believe this little tale is typical of football. Plans made by owners, managers, players, agents, endlessly undermined by other parties not doing what is expected, and by events taking their toll.

I know that I am often accused of being a conspiracy theorist, but in fact this is rarely true. If you take the reports on how the vapour transfers have come to be a major force in football, this is not a conspiracy – just normal dirty dealing by a club. They don’t conspire with anyone, just pull some naughty tricks.

Football is, to my mind, one big cock up after another. At the moment Man U and Man C have taken extraordinary gambles with the use of money and with transfers which have paid off. But for Man U the £80m from Ronaldo must almost have gone, and for Man C FFP looms. They need to find a new plan, and with that plan will come some unexpected results, inevitably.

The game in fact is not to eliminate the cock-ups, but to try and reduce them to a minimum.