Higuain to Arsenal: the odds look good

In a strong signal that Arsenal is closer than ever to landing the signature of Gonzalo Higuain, the odds have been lowered by leading betting companies. In a still-running poll, sadly, 44% of us were too optimistic in suggesting that Higuain would sign by 28 June. With the transfer window now officially open, will the 33% who predicted a signing by 5 July win the day? I’m sure all of us are looking for any and every morsel of evidence to confirm it: Wilshere’s following Higuain on twitter. Arsene’s set to make a “final push.” And on and on.

When will Higuain sign?

I’m not much of a betting man—I’m too much of a coward to take the plunge. However, the betting parlors are taking the collective wisdom (such as it is) of anyone interested enough to put their money where their mouths are. They won’t stay in business very long if they can’t accurately assess odds, which is why I’ll look to them to figure out where things stand rather than reading headlines. To believe them, we’re about to sign Higuain, Rooney, Fellaini, and now Bayern’s Mario Gomez. It’s a dreamy world, full of rainbows and unicorns and dragons that poop jelly-beans. In other words, let’s get back to reality.

With the signature of Yaya Sanogo, there’s no harm in hoping that the lid is now off the transfer-kitty. Transfermrkt, who rate the probability of transfers, have left Higuain’s move at 75% likely, unchanged from a week ago. For context, Sanogo is still listed at 93% likely to sign while also being listed as in the squad since 1 July, so there’s a curve of seven points there. Similarly, the likelihood of Cesar signing have grown from 50% to 57%. Despite rumors of Barcelona‘s interest, it seems that we continue to have the inside-track and hopefully enough of a head start to land the man.

It’s going to be an antsy couple of days as we hope to hear some official announcements about Higuain and Cesar. In the meantime, it seems we can distract ourselves with variations on Wham!’s “Wake Me Up Before You Go-Go”:

Score a goal, Yaya Sanogo,You’re the first signing of the transfer window.Score some goals, Yaya Sanogo,You’re sure to be a superstar bye and bye.Score again, Yaya Sanogo,Caz can’t always do it solo.Score more goals, Yaya Sanogo;I don’t wanna miss when you hit that high!Good times.