Who should Juventus partner Carlos Tevez with up-front vs Real Madrid?

The UEFA Champions League moves into the home stretch of the group phase this week, with the fourth round of games matching teams in the reverse of the last bout of fixtures.

For Group B, that means that Italian Serie A champions Juventus welcome La Liga giants Real Madrid to Turin, hoping to avenge the 2-1 loss they suffered two weeks ago in the Santiago Bernabeu. In fact, with Juventus not having won a game yet in the group phase and group rivals Galatasaray favourites to overcome bottom-ranked FC Kobenhavn, a home win for Juve becomes pretty much a minimum requirement.

Defeat could leave them five points behind Galatasaray with just two matches to play, while even a draw would leave the group out of Juve’s hands if Galatasaray beat the Danish side.

To that end, boss Antonio Conte has a decision to make; stick with his usual 3-5-2 formation or revert to the 4-3-3 which he opted for in Spain two weeks ago? That game was fairly even in terms of shots and chances, but Real dominated possession and territory for long spells and, of course, ultimately came out victorious.

Playing at home and needing the victory, it is probable that Conte should opt for his tried-and-trusted 3-5-2, pairing one of Fernando Llorente, Fabio Quagliarella or Sebastian Giovinco in attack with regular starter and top goalscorer Carlos Tevez.

Tevez himself has not scored a Champions League goal since his Manchester United days, but is the focal point for the Juve attack and will hope to end his long scoreless run in the competition on Tuesday.

Aside from his goals though, Tevez’s all-action style of play and his ability to drop into the attacking midfield line and help create chances means he is a source of chances for others as well. With 19 chances created in league play this season, only one team-mate—Arturo Vidal—has managed to fashion more chances for Juve this season.

Juventus Top Chance Creators This Season

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That, along with Juve’s system naturally giving them numbers centrally, means they should be looking to have the second striker stationed higher up the pitch than Tevez and, by and large, remaining there to occupy Real’s defenders.

While it is not entirely clear which centre-backs will start for Real—against Juventus last time it was Pepe and Sergio Ramos, but Raphael Varane has played two of the last three league games and also the second group stage game in Europe—one familiar factor will come into play regardless: they do not do particularly well under pressure. Press Real’s back-line hard enough and often enough, and mistakes can appear with regularity.

Both in terms of having a true centre-forward in play and with asking one to press high alongside Tevez, the natural options for Juve and Conte would seem to be Quagliarella and Llorente.

Out of the two, it is the Italian who has already made the bigger mark in the Champions League this season, scoring against both Kobenhavn and Galatasaray, while he also registers a better shots on target average than Llorente, whose only goal in Europe this term, against Real, was indeed his only shot on target so far in the competition.

Fabio Quagliarella Shot Accuracy In The Champions League

Off the ball, Quagliarella also gives Juve the better option to run onto through balls behind the defence; Llorente has good movement in tight spaces to find himself room, but is not a striker who will hare into the channels and link up particularly well with the runners from the second line of attack.

Quagliarella, however, has struggled over the past few games with a back injury. He missed the Real Madrid match and three Serie A games with the problem, before making his return off the bench against Parma at the weekend.

Should he be fit enough, Quagliarella should be handed the start for Juventus alongside Carlos Tevez. Even if he can only manage an hour or so of play at his best level, it could make a big difference to the Juve attack and their capability to trouble Real’s defence.

After that, Conte will have the option to bring on Llorente to play with a more obvious focal point if required, or else Giovinco, playing off Tevez in a deeper supporting role, can give more cover to the midfield if things are going well.

Juve’s attack is well-stocked and varied, but they’ll nevertheless have to be on top of their game to help the team to a much-needed win over Real Madrid on Tuesday.