La Liga focus: Race for the fourth and final Champions League spot

There’s a battle going on in La Liga right now that threatens even the title race when it comes to drama and intrigue. Cast your eyes slightly below the engrossing three-way tussle for La Liga’s top spot, and you’ll arrive at fourth place.

It’s the coveted final Champions League place that’s up for grabs, and the contenders aren’t all the most likely of suspects. Athletic Bilbao, last seen dazzling such heights in 1997-1998 when they achieved a 2nd placed finish, while Real Sociedad grabbed 4th place last term. Then there is Villarreal, returning after a year away in the purgatory of Segunda Division. The financial rewards of fourth are huge, and the prestige that comes with it almost as important.

Here, we look at the three main contenders in La Liga’s fourth place shootout:

Athletic Bilbao

Currently occupying 4th, they are certainly in the best position as things stand. Of the three teams involved in the race, their squad is arguably the deepest and most flexible too. After an incredible high in Marcelo Bielsa’s first term in charge and a hangover in his second, Ernesto Valverde has restored stability and improved mental toughness in the squad. Athletic are mean once again, resilient and don’t play any game with half measures. WhoScored identifies Athletic’s overturning of losing positions as a strength, and their ability on set-pieces is testament to how tough they have been. Valverde’s a calculated soul, intelligent and perhaps underrated in Spanish managerial terms. Few identify needed changes in-game better than the Basque, who also played for the club.

Valverde has managed to combine a mix of Athletic’s traditional strengths – their 20.8 aerial duels won per game is the 3rd most in La Liga – and move them down a more progressive path without totally disregarding Bielsa’s methods. This is shown with their natural width and overlapping full-backs, with 30 crosses per game the most in La Liga this season, while their 11 goals from set-pieces is the 3rd most in La Liga. In terms of maintaining a modern approach, their 396 short passes per game is the 5th most overall. Sure, Athletic still seek out the direct option but the possession (55%) and midfield calm bridges defensive frailties suffered in Bielsa’s era. Valverde can kill games in an instant, and change them even quicker to his team’s benefit.

Athletic must offer Aduriz more support in attack, and while Ibai Gómez has been efficient from the bench, the volume of goals needs to improve. There is a nice spread of the goals, it’s just the conversion of chances that needs to be on the increase. Iker Muniain, Markel Susaeta and even Ander need to maintain their attacking support, easing the burden on the battle hardened Aduriz.

Key Fixtures: Real Sociedad (H), Villarreal (A), Atlético Madrid (H)

Real Sociedad

The boys from the picturesque surroundings of San Sebastián have finally found their feet after a difficult start to life under young coach Jagoba Arrasate. First there was a traumatic Champions League campaign, then several key injuries and difficulty adjusting to a new style of play. Morale hit an all-time low after a run of 7 league games without a win and questions over their mentality were posed.

Now the signs are mostly positive for Arrasate’s side, who are guided by their dynamic attacking pairing of Antoine Griezmann and Carlos Vela. The Frenchman is experiencing his best season, plundering 15 goals this season and finally exploding onto the scene as many had hoped and predicted he would. His 33% contribution to the team’s goals this season says it all about his importance. Vela meanwhile continues to be the fulcrum of the attack, neither playing in attack or midfield, he drifts between the lines knitting approach play together. 5 shots on target per game from a 12.6 shots is a fine return, showing that when la Real do attack they mean business.

La Real can often be overly ponderous in possession, currently at 49.5% on average, and perhaps over do things instead of quickly utilising the pace that is abundant in their attack. Their game when slowed down can be found out and only when they play direct and with tempo, can they truly unhinge opponents. Arrasate should perhaps release the shackles more often on his young team and allow them to perform with the freedom their talent facilitates.

Key Fixtures: Osasuna (A), Athletic Bilbao (A), Villarreal (H)

Villarreal

Villarreal are currently flying high due to their decision to retain a big budget while in Segunda (€30m, the highest in the division), and increasing it further when promoted (€49.72m). It meant players like Bruno Soriano were able to stay, and he’s been at the centre of Villarreal’s stampede for European football. This is shown by his 60.9 passes per game, a staggering total given the next highest amount is Cani with 38.2. Players were also brought in to pad the squad out and give it quality; Gio Dos Santos, for instance, has 9 goals and 7 assists proving he’s enjoying his best career as a professional. Typically, the Mexican influences most attacking third action and his key passes per game is up at 1.8.

In defence Matteo Mussachio has risen from being a scapegoat criticised for his lacklustre defending to become one of the most improved players around. Villarreal only concede on average 11 shots per game, the lowest in the league, with Marcelino focusing on this key area of defence, pairing Mussachio with the quietly impressive Gabriel Paulista.

Consistency has been a struggle of late for Villarreal, and opponents are gradually becoming more aware of the safe game that Marcelino employs. The defeat at home to Celta Vigo was true to this notion, as was the loss to Real Valladolid. It could be argued Villarreal have the toughest run-in too, with some monstrous games in which they need to prosper.

Key Fixtures: Athletic Bilbao (H), Valencia (A), Atlético Madrid (A), Real Sociedad (A)