Law of averages in football - It all evens out

“Who do you think will win the Champions League final this year?”, asked one of my friend, a couple of weeks before this year’s football showpiece at Wembley. “According to a theory, I am absolutely sure that Bayern Munich will win it with Arjen Robben scoring either the winner or the winning penalty”, I replied with an assurance and confidence that certainly took my friend by surprise. “How can you be so sure, predicting even the scorer, and what is this theory”, he asked again. “Well, let’s wait and watch what happens in the final, and then if I am right, I would explain what this theory is all about”, I said with a wry smile. It really left him amused and perplexed, just like, I suppose, many of you reading this would be feeling right now.

So here we are, a week after the Wembley final, where Arjen Robben scored the vital winner two minutes before time and helped his team, Bayern Munich, claim the European Cup for the fifth time. What made me foresee it, or should I say, what made me so sure that it was the only outcome that was going to happen, would be explained in what follows in this article.

Law of averages states that outcomes of a random event will “even out” within due course of time if you keep trying. If you’ve had bad luck somewhere, you will certainly have a very good stroke of luck somewhere else. Luck always evens out. It’s just the matter of realizing the same, which we, as normal human behavior, fail to do so. We blame all our losses to luck, but credit all our successes to ourselves.

This law of averages applies to everything in life, and hence, football is not an exception. Let’s have a look at the following examples from football world which will make things more clear:

1) David Beckham (from national villain to national hero in 4 years)

At the 1998 world cup, not yet the phenomenon that he has turned into today, Beckham was just a 23 years old lad competing with Darren Anderton for a place in the England squad. However, he got his chance in the second knock out round against Argentina. It went all too wrong for him as well as England.

After being fouled by Argentina midfielder Digeo Simeone, Beckham retaliated by kicking Simeone in the calf, which earned him a red card. The result was England playing the rest of the game with ten men, eventually losing the penalty shootout.

David Beckham was made the scapegoat for England’s failure at the World Cup and he turned into a national villain overnight. Some papers dished out headlines like, ” the story of ten lions, and a stupid boy”. Beckham, however, didn’t lose his self belief and continued plying his trade in England amongst a chorus of boos that he was treated to whenever he played an away match.

He went on to claim several honors with Manchester United in the following years, but his real moment of redemption came in a world cup qualifier match against Greece in 2001 at Old Trafford. Greece was winning 1-2 until the 93rd minute, and England needed a goal to earn themselves a place in next year’s world cup finals. With virtually the last kick of the game, David Beckham, who was captaining England at the time, in his trademark style, curled a free kick into the top left corner past the hapless keeper to exorcise the ghosts of 1998. An example of how quickly fortunes can turn, he became a national hero overnight. He then went on to score a winning penalty against Argentina in the 2002 World Cup as well. They call it the law of averages – it all evens out.

2) Ruud Van Nistelrooy (a tale of two penalties)

The incident that, perhaps, preserved Arsenal‘s ‘Invincible’ tag more than most was the Dutchman’s missed last-minute penalty that helped the Gunners to a 0-0 draw at Old Trafford in 2003.

The match got heated up in the final ten minutes. Van Nistelrooy tripped Vieira, who reacted while lying on the field, flicking his boot. The Frenchman, who had been booked earlier, was shown his marching orders by the referee. It sparked a melee between the teams resulting in Van Nistelrooy and Jens Lehmann being carded.

In the stoppage time, United earned a penalty, giving the Dutchman a chance to seal victory, but his spot kick thudded against the bar, prompting another flare-up as several Arsenal players surrounded Van Nistelrooy, shoving and taunting him. The ugly scenes continued after the match.

Arsenal, that season, went on to win the Premier League without losing a single game, leaving Van Nistlrooy pondering what might have been had his penalty found the back of the net on that evening at Old Trafford.

The United striker, however, got his moment of redemption a year on from the incident. Arsenal were on a record 49-match unbeaten streak when they returned to Old Trafford the following season. In a match where tempers were boiling, United earned a penalty in the second half. Van Nistelrooy, inevitably, stepped up to take it. The calmness and composure that he displayed in slotting the penalty past the keeper, who went the wrong way, was just the opposite of the celebration that followed it – Arms spread wide in exultation, he ran towards the corner flag, almost in slow motion, as if the events of a year before were rolling before his eyes. He kneeled down at the flag and let out a long wild shriek, that purged all the agony, trauma and pain off him, and finally, burned the ghost of that missed penalty that would have haunted him for an entire year. They call it, the law of averages – it all evens out.

3) Chelsea Football club and Didier Drogba (name on the 2012 European Cup)

Chelsea were hibernating in cold English weather until Roman Abramovich plucked them out of obscurity and put them back into the higher echelons of English football. After they won two back to back titles in 2005 and 2006, first of which was their first in 50 years, they made the European cup as their prime target.

The Russian injected millions into the football club that made them a force to be reckoned with in European football.

After a couple of years of struggling at the quarter or the semi finals stage, the influx of money and the hard work paid off in 2008, when Chelsea earned themselves a place in the Champions League final against Manchester United. The end result, however, was not that Chelsea and its fans were looking for.

In a match where Didier Drogba was sent off, following a snap at Nemanja Vidic, Chelsea lost out narrowly in the penalty shoot-out.

Chelsea, however, came back again the following year in the semi-final against Barcelona, where again, a turn of events denied them a deserved place in the finals. The Norwegian referee, Tony Ovrebo, besides several other unfair decisions, waved away a host of stone wall penalty appeals from Chelsea that night.

Chelsea’s rage exploded when Andrés Iniesta’s goal, deep in injury time, edged them out of the 2009 Champions League semi-final on the away-goals rule at Stamford Bridge. Several Chelsea players, most of them all Didier Drogba, confronted the referee after the final whistle, which earned him a six match ban from UEFA.

In 2012, Chelsea and Dider Drogba finally achieved the holy grail. Defying all odds, that included another semi final tie with Barcelona which they saw out with ten men at Camp Nou, they reached the finals again. After being outplayed for most of the match by Bayern Munich, who deservedly led by a goal until the final 5 minutes, Didier Drogba, inevitably, rose above all from a corner to equalize in the final three minutes. Munich missed a penalty in the extra time and then lost out in the penalty shoot-out. There are no prizes for guessing as to who scored the final winning penalty for Chelsea.. They call it, the law of averages – it all evens out.

4) Manchester United (those three minutes in 1999 and 2012)

“Football, Bloody hell”, said Sir Alex Ferguson when Manchester United lifted the 1999 European Cup at Camp Nou after beating Bayern Munich in the most dramatic fashion ever. Two injury time goals from United substitutes turned the 1-0 deficit into 1-2 victory, and thereby, sending its own fans into a delirium, and Munich fans into a state of complete shock. No one had ever witnessed a u-turn of emotions in such a short span of time at such a huge event.

13 years on from that dramatic night at Camp Nou, who would have thought that this could be repeated again, and this time, in Manchester, against Manchester United. Manchester City was playing their last game of the season at their home knowing that a victory will win them their first league title in 44 years. Standing in their way was QPR, who were fighting relegation, and were considered roll overs. Against all odds, QPR were in the lead 1-2 until the 90th minute. At the same time, United had won their corresponding fixture and were Champions at that moment. Manchester City, however, had different ideas.

Edin Dzeko equalised for City in the 91st minute and raised the anticipation amongst the City fans, and then came the moment of the year. Sergio Aguero, with seconds remaining, received the ball inside the QPR penalty area and slotted the ball into the back of the net after beating a defender. The roof of the Etihad stadium must have been raised when Sergio Aguero hurtled down the ground swinging Manchester United hearts around his head. History repeats – a complete u-turn of emotions in such a short span of time at such a huge event, but this time, it was Manchester United fans at the receiving end. They call it, the law of averages – it all evens out.

5) Bayern Munich and Arjen Robben (name on the 2013 European Cup)

Now coming back to the question that my friend asked me, I am sure, that all of you, who know what had happened with Munich and Arjen Robben in the past three years, can now easily tell how I could foresee the result of this year’s final.

Bayern Munich, despite dominating most of the proceedings in the 2010 and 2012 European Cup finals, were undeservedly beaten on both the occasions. And one player from Bayern Munich who has suffered the most, failing in almost all the major events he has participated in the last three years, is Arjen Robben. He was the one who missed an extra-time penalty in 2012 final against Chelsea. The Dutchman also missed a one-on-one chance in the World Cup final against Spain in 2010. Also, in the 2012 league campaign, Robben missed a crucial penalty in the dying minutes of a match against Borussia Dortmund, which eventually cost Munich the title.

Both Bayern Munich and Arjen Robben, however, had their tryst with destiny in the 2013 European Cup final, in which, all of you know, what happened. They call it, the law of averages – it all evens out.

And it works almost everytime, the law of averages – it all evens out. So, the next time you see a dubious penalty or an unfair decision in favor of Manchester United, or for that matter, against Real Madrid, in a crucial European tie, do cast an eye towards the Nani red-card incident that happened at Old Trafford this season. In football, it all evens out.

PS: There have been many other incidents in the past which are worth mentioning here – like United air crash in 1958 and their European cup victory in 1968. England’s ghost goal against Germany in the 1966 World Cup and then Lampard’s legitimate goal against Germany not awarded in the 2010 World Cup. Zidane turning from hero in 1998 World Cup final by scoring a brace, to a villain in 2006 final with a headbutt and a red card…