League Cup Preview: Swansea City vs Chelsea

Swansea City take on Chelsea in the second leg of the Capital One Cup semi-final tonight. Chelsea need to overturn a 2-0 deficit (away goals rule applies in case of a tie in aggregate score) to go through to the final against Bradford City.

Team News

Obviously, Swansea would head into this game with a better chance of progressing as they have a two goal lead, and the same number of away goals. The news of star striker Michu signing a new contract should also brighten up their spirits. Swansea have very little injury concerns as Kenny Agustien is the only first team player unavailable, and otherwise, they have a full squad to select from.

Chelsea, meanwhile, have to dig deep to overturn the deficit, meaning they will require something like their effort against Napoli in the Champions League last season where they successfully overturned a two goal first leg deficit . Ashley Cole recently signed a new contract and that would please their fans immensely. On the injury front, John Terry, deemed match fit, has figured on the bench in Chelsea’s last 2 games and has not been played (as preventive measure), and is most likely to start. Victor Moses and John Obi Mikel are participating in the African Cup of Nations, while Oriol Romeu is a out due to long term injury. David Luiz missed the league game against Arsenal due to an ankle strain, and remains doubtful for this match as well.

Expected Starting Line-ups:

Chelsea: Cech; Azpilicueta, Cahill, Terry, A Cole; Ramires, Lampard; Hazard, Mata, Marin; Ba.

Swansea: Tremmel; Davies, Williams, Flores, Rangel; Ki, Britton; De Guzman, Hernandez, Routledge; Michu

Past Encounters

2013 – January: Chelsea 0 – 2 Swansea (League Cup, 1st Leg)

2012 – November: Swansea 1 -1 Chelsea (Premier League)

2012 – January: Swansea 1 -1 Chelsea (Premier League)

2011 – September: Chelsea 4 – 1 Swansea (Premier League)

Swansea have thus proved to be difficult opponents for Chelsea to get past, and have scored against the outgoing European champions in all their past meetings in the recent past. Going by theses stats, expect the Swans to score at least once and make their opponents suffer the ‘blues’.

Key Battles

Michu celebrates scoring past Ross Turnbull to give Swansea the lead at Stamford Bridge

Branislav Ivanovic was single-handedly responsible for both of Swansea’s goals at Stamford Bridge and might be dropped, thus leaving John Terry to partner Gary Cahill in central defense. Michu would relish an encounter against a ‘not yet up to the pace’ John Terry, hence we can expect a closely contested aerial battle between Michu and Terry, assisted by Cahill. Chelsea’s center backs need to be very careful about Michu’s positioning as well, as he likes to drop deep and bring his team-mates into play. Swansea have pace down the wings in the form of De Guzman and Routledge, and Chelsea’s fullbacks Azpilicueta and Cole need to be aware of that. Though he is over 30, Ashley Cole still has the pace and must use it to true effect. In midfield, it is really difficult to predict who starts in the trio behind the striker for Chelsea, as Mata, Hazard, Oscar, Bertrand, and Marin are all in contention. Whichever trio Rafa selects, Swansea’s double pivot ahead of their defense need to stay on their toes to cope with their movement.

What to expect

Chelsea have been in brilliant form away from home, but starting the match two goals down is a different ball game altogether. Thus the first goal will be the most crucial as it can ultimately decide the momentum of the game. If Swansea get the first breakthrough, the tie is as good as over. However, if Chelsea can start all guns blazing right from the off and score an early goal, they can make things really interesting and test Swansea’s nerves.

And then, we have the small matter of who starts for Chelsea in the striker position. Fernando Torres played a majority of the league game against Arsenal and was ineffective in the first leg as well, so Demba Ba will most definitely start. Ba also scored in the first leg in his cameo, but that was wrongly adjudged offside. Ba also offers a more likely chance of scoring early than the Spaniard, so expect him to start over Torres.

Prediction

Swansea are very difficult to beat at home, and have not lost at home by more than one goal for about over a year. Regardless of which team scores first on the night, Swansea are likely to edge themselves through and cause a real upset.

Predicted Scoreline: Swansea 1 – 1 Chelsea on the night, Swansea to go through 3-1 on aggregate and more boos for Rafa.

Match Details

Venue: Liberty Stadium, Swansea, Wales

Time: 1:30 am IST, 24-1-13.

Telecast: Live on Ten Action and Ten HD