Manchester Derby: Tactical Preview

What seemed like a long wait when the Premier League fixtures were announced is not far away from us now as we are hours away from the first Manchester derby of the season. What makes it an all-the-more intriguing clash is the fact that there are numerous records at stake.

Manchester City have eased past their opponents in the Premier League so far and they equalled Chelsea and Arsenal’s 13-game winning streak following their last-gasp win over West Ham United. While the red half of Manchester have been unbeaten at home for 37 games now and ironically the last team to beat them at Old Trafford is none other than their arch-rivals Manchester City in the previous season.

Probable Lineups

Manchester United

There are undoubtedly too many big decisions for Mourinho to make as far as picking the right 11 is concerned. The first and foremost call Mourinho needs to take is the formation to halt Manchester City’s fluidity. It is no secret that the pragmatic Portuguese has always preferred the traditional back four in all of his previous teams. The back-three being preferred in the bigger games is indeed a surprise but for sure a pleasant one for United fans as it seems to have added defensive solidity especially in the absence of key players like Paul Pogba and Eric Bailly.

By fielding a back four, United would run the risk of allowing Sane and Sterling to go on 1v1 with Valencia and Young, who aren’t traditionally adept at defending. Of course, they can get enough aid from Martial & Rashford but even the two wingers who track back will be busy with the City full-backs pushing up.

While if you take the case of a back three, Valencia would be given cover by either Lindelof or Phil Jones -- whoever starts -- while Young would be given cover by Marcos Rojo. This gives United 2 players to cover the wide areas without losing numbers up front, which would happen in case they go for a 4-2-3-1 with wingers tracking back. The 0-0 draw against Liverpool is a classic example of the same.

Jesse Lingard has grabbed his opportunity with both hands after his scintillating display against Arsenal. The youngster was full of energy and the combination of work-ethic with crisp counter-attacking means he would be one of the first names among the players up front against an attacking powerhouse like Manchester City.

Marouane Fellaini or Ander Herrera?

Marouane Fellaini faces a late fitness test and could prove handy for United if he starts. — Marouane Fellaini faces a late fitness test and could prove handy for United if he starts

Another gamble Mourinho could consider is to start Marouane Fellaini over Ander Herrera to partner Nemanja Matic in midfield. It is no secret that City’s midfield maestros namely Kevin De Bruyne and David Silva can unlock any defence irrespective of its organization and discipline. In order to be able to stop them from wreaking havoc, Fellaini and Matic could prove to be an ideal pair as compared to Herrera with Matic. It is not only about out-muscling off-the-ball but Fellaini could also be an option for De Gea’s distribution and his timely runs into the box could make him an option in the air along with Lukaku.

Manchester City

Enter cap — Probable line-up: Manchester City (4-3-3)

There shouldn’t be many difficult decisions to make for Pep Guardiola on this front. It has been a long while since he got rid of the back-three formation. He was questioned regarding the same and the reason he had was that without Mendy he wouldn’t be favouring the back-three as Delph lacks the ability to play completely out-wide as a wing back and thus Sane would be given the responsibility of keeping the width on the left.

John Stones is still in the recovery process and hence Vincent Kompany is expected to pair up with Otamendi at the heart of defence. The midfield trio of De Bruyne-Fernandinho-Silva has worked wonders for City and changes there would be unlikely unless Pep goes back on his decision to start Silva. In that case, Ilkay Gundogan might be favoured to start in his place. The front 3 of Sane-Aguero-Sterling is all but sure to start given that all were rested in the midweek game in the UEFA Champions League except Sane who was part of that game for an hour and then substituted off.

Strengths

Manchester United

There are no second thoughts about this significant physical advantage United have when they lock horns with City. To quantify the same, the Red side of Manchester are 6 centimeters taller than the Blue side on an average and this could turn out to be favourable to the former. This advantage isn’t limited to defending but also on the attack.

As mentioned before, a player like Fellaini could prove to be very productive in outmuscling the midfield, set-pieces, aerial clearances as well as timely runs into the box to attack crosses. The only significantly tall player that City may have is none other than their captain courageous Kompany while Delph could also be considered a relatively decent option. If you take the case of Mourinho’s men, they would have a handful of them in this regard namely Lukaku, Matic, Smalling and Fellaini, Rojo, Lindelof or Jones (whoever would start from these options).

Manchester City

Guardiola is one of the most renowned managers in the world as far as flexibility is concerned as he has set his side up in many different tactical ways to counter the opposition. Often it would end up being something that no one including the opposition manager had expected. A classic example was the game against Chelsea at the Stamford Bridge when City outclassed Chelsea and won the game 0-1 this season.

City's 3-3-3-1 during build-up against Chelsea was a revelation

Conte set his side up with a solid 5-3-2 off the ball and Guardiola came up with an absolutely unorthodox way to whiz past the Blues. The Catalan altered the shape during build up to a 3-3-3-1. As you can see in the image above, during build-up Walker-Stones-Otamendi formed a back three while De Bruyne-Fernandinho-Delph formed another line of 3 but spread wide apart to stretch Chelsea’s midfield horizontally.

Hence, City were able to play around Chelsea’s crowded midfield using De Bruyne wide plus the wingers who were also out wide. In the second half, after Chelsea had changed their shape owing to Morata being substituted off, City shifted back to their traditional 4-3-3 and De Bruyne advanced to the centre. Not too long after that, De Bruyne was on the scoresheet and killed the game off. Hence, there is no doubt that Guardiola could surprise Mourinho with his tactical bravery if the situation demands and United better be prepared to face any sort of beast to come at them.

Weaknesses

Manchester United

There is a thin line between sitting back and absorbing pressure and allowing too much time for the opposition on the ball. It is not entirely true that if you sit back, you deny space and time as you need to do it to perfection and maintain the balance of the thin line between denying space and offering time. If you deny space and offer time, it is going to end up in City having to think and pick out a gap with their extremely mobile attackers.

A similar scenario befell West Ham last weekend as they allowed City to see a lot of the ball in front of the box and all City had to do was find that one pass to score the winner with umpteen time on the ball.

Even United adopted to a similar approach against Arsenal last weekend and the Gunners almost cracked United’s defence one time too many. Yes, United were a man down and that indeed is a justification but the game against Liverpool that ended 0-0 at Anfield doesn't suggest anything better. Hence occasional stints of high-pressing by Lukaku, Rashford/ Martial and Lingard against Kompany, Otamendi and Fernandinho could prove fruitful as City are a shadow of themselves when their build-up is successfully disrupted.

Manchester City

The ability to defend set-pieces is becoming a worry for City over the past few games. The real problem for them is the added advantage that United possess with their strength and aerial ability. Guardiola has chosen to go with a combination of zonal and man marking while defending corners. The physically strongest players available are assigned with zonal marking in the 6-yard box while the less physical players are assigned to man-mark those opponents making runs from the edge or outside of the box.

The image above is an example of the game against Huddersfield Town. The players (marked red) inside the 6-yard are Kompany, Otamendi, Delph, Walker and Fernandinho, while the players (marked yellow) in the edge of the box are Aguero, De Bruyne, Silva and Sterling. As you can see, De Bruyne is trying his best to outmuscle Schindler and stop the run but he failed to do so and it was Schindler who got the flick on at the near post before it ended up in the back of net.

It is not De Bruyne or any of the players’ at the edge of the box strong suit to stop threatening runs in a set-piece and thus the problem is not just lack of aerial ability or physicality but also from a tactical standpoint. Given United’s ability to outmuscle their opponents and the added height advantage, this should be one area where Mourinho would love to hurt City and sneak in one, maybe against the run of play.

Conclusion

Leaving aside the fact that it is a derby, it also has two masterminds going one-on-one against each other in a highly tactical battle. The potentially great match-up will be made greater owing to the contrasting approaches and two completely different philosophies of football locking horns and for all we know, these tactical battles we have looked at may well decide the fate of the Premier League 2017-18.

Images sources:

www.this11.com, www.metro.co.uk, www.dailymail.co.uk, www.dailystar.co.uk, www.fullmatchreplay.com, www.thesun.co.uk, www.manutd.com

Edited by Amit Mishra