Four reasons why Manchester United will fail to win the Premier League

Defeat to Liverpool. Defeat to Chelsea. Defeat to West Brom. David Moyes’ win percentage as manager of Manchester United resides at less than 50%. The beginning of the 2013-14 was statistically the Red Devils’ worst in 24 years.

Yet despite this, one man at least believes that Manchester United can still retain their title. In a Q&A session following the release of his autobiography, Sir Alex Ferguson insisted that his former team remain capable of winning the Premier League, saying: “We are the only club in that league that can come from behind to win the league because of our history.”

Man United Key Stats From First Nine Games Last Season

Indeed, United’s control of matches remains at the same level as last season – after nine games, the average possession both Ferguson’s and Moyes’ side was 55%. This suggests that the Red Devils continue to be able to take hold of a game and dictate its proceedings, and that the 2013-14 version of the team will eventually attain similar levels of success as 2012-13?s side.

Man United Key Stats From First Nine Games This Season

However, it is what the team does with the ball which matters, and in this area there is a marked difference. Despite appearing to control games based on the possession statistics, Moyes’ team lack the creative edge which his predecessors’ side had, something which will significantly hinder their efforts to win the title. So far, Man Utd have engineered 92 chances; this is 14 less than the total at the same point last season, and places them behind Spurs, Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea and Newcastle.

Team Chances Created This Season

What’s more, their Performance Score is much lower than at this point last season, suggesting a general downturn in the standards exhibited by a largely unchanged Manchester United squad. Currently, their Performance Score is 1,911 – compare this to last year’s total of 3,794 after nine games, and it is evident that the current squad is not of championship-winning calibre. Moreover, in the Performance Score rankings, Man Utd place a lowly ninth. Most of these issues stem from the lack of a creative force in midfield. Moyes’ strikers, the likes of Robin Van Persie, Wayne Rooney and Javier Hernandez, all have a natural predatory instinct and rely on service into the penalty area from midfield. However, there has been a clear absence of this in the Red Devils’ matches this season, with most goalscoring opportunities occurring outside the penalty area or in wide areas.

This was particularly evident in the comeback victory against Stoke on Saturday. Whilst all three of the aforementioned strikers scored, each goal came began with the ball in a wide position; no chances were created in the central areas from outside of the box. This leaves Man Utd looking rather one-dimensional and easy to defend against, something which will make it extremely difficult for them to retain their title.

Man United Key Passes v Stoke

Part of the reason for this is the withdrawn roles of United’s central midfielders. Michael Carrick, arguably the most gifted passer in Moyes’ squad, is sat very deep in his role and as such was unable to have an influence on his team’s attacks. Meanwhile, Tom Cleverley was left to link-up midfield and attack, while Shinji Kagawa, the player who could have thrived in this role, was left on the wing.

This restricted the effect which Manchester United’s attacks had, and, if this continues throughout the remainder of the season, it is unlikely that Moyes’ team will be able to challenge for the Premier League title. On the other hand, should someone of the ilk of Cesc Fabregas or even Ander Herrera is purchased in January – or, God forbid, Kagawa is played in his actual position – they may be able to make themselves contenders.

Another factor which inhibits Man Utd’s chances of triumphing in the Premier League this season is the reluctance of their wingers to fulfil defensive duties. This was a major cause of the embarrassing defeat to Man City earlier in the season and the problem has still not been eradicated.

From the heat map of Kagawa (above) and Nani (below) who started on the left and right-wings respectively for the Red Devils, it is evident that that they failed to track back frequently, and this leaves Man Utd extremely vulnerable down the flanks. One of the advantages of the 4-2-3-1 formation is that the winger is able to provide their full-back with additional defensive cover; in Moyes’ system, this is not occurring, and as such there is the large possibility that his team will be overwhelmed in the wide areas. If this does not stop, there is very little chance that Man Utd will lift the Premier League, for their opponents will easily exploit this defect in the machine.

The above evidence is just two tactical reasons why Man Utd will struggle to win the Premier League this season. If these are righted, Moyes’ men should become a stronger outfit which is more capable of challenging; however, if the manager persists in failing to play Kagawa in the centre of midfield, United will continue to look impotent until January when it will be too late to re-launch their challenge.

What’s more, the Red Devils’ squad lacks the real quality of the likes of Chelsea, Man City and even Arsenal to some extent. The fact that supporters have given Adnan Januzaj, an 18-year-old, near hero status for his performances this season highlights this – despite his obvious talents, the Belgian should not have to be seen as one of the key members of this team. Anderson and Tom Cleverley would also be nowhere near the squads of the other title challengers; their membership has created a weak core, which, until solidified, will restrict Moyes’ attempts to win the Premier League.

It is testament to Sir Alex Ferguson’s genius that he was able to win the Premier League at a canter with this squad last season. The weak team will hamper any attempts which Moyes makes to triumph this year, even if he does fix the tactical errors in his system. The current incumbent is not the manager Ferguson was, and this has been reflected so far this season in his inability to get his team to perform at the same level as in 2012-13.

For this reason, as well as the tactical faults which have blighted Moyes, it is unlikely that his team will be able to emerge victorious when May comes around next year.