Newcastle United - The permutations for surviving relegation

With just 2 games of the 2012-13 season left to be played out, the spectre of relegation, if not certain, is very real proposition. With Newcastle sitting on just 38 points, fans are apprehensive and with the team’s current form of 1 win in 9 (all competitions), they have every reason to be.

As things stand, Newcastle United are currently 17^th with 38 points, which is a mere 3 points more than Wigan Athletic who occupy the last of the relegation spots and have the same goal difference (-23). Theoretically, any of the bottom half clubs could go down but realistically, the fight is between Wigan, Aston Villa, Norwich and Sunderland, and may be Southampton. This is how the table looks at present.

Pos	Team	Played	Points	GD
11	Stoke City	36	41	-10
12	Fulham	36	40	-11
13	Aston Villa	36	40	-21
14	Southampton	36	39	-11
15	Sunderland	36	38	-12
16	Norwich City	36	38	-22
17	Newcastle	36	38	-23
18	Wigan	36	35	-23
19	Reading (R)	36	28	-26
20	QPR (R)	36	25	-28

Here is a look at some of the permutations that can help us understand what needs to happen for Newcastle to survive the dreaded drop. I will be going for the best case scenario, while ruling out the goal difference constant.

1. Two wins out of two – The good bit is that our destiny remains in our hands. If we win the two remaining matches, then we are safe and quite conceivably, we will finish in the top half of the table. Whether we have the form and the personnel to do it is a different story.

2. One win and a draw – With 4 points from the last 2 games, we would be safe as Wigan can only get a maximum of 41 points. Although the fans would want a win first and then a draw, rather than the other way around, so that they do not have to go through the ringer again.

3. One win, one defeat – Now we are in the realms of relying on other results to go our way. With one win we will have 41 points and could be in the relegation zone, come 19^th of May. It could really come down to goal difference in this scenario. Norwich could get humbled at Manchester City and Wigan too could score a few against Villa. But I believe if we get 3 points we should be safe.

4. Two draws – Two draws gives us two more points (not rocket science) and will leave us on 40 points. This would allow Wigan to overtake us but in the process we may overtake Southampton, Sunderland, Norwich and may be even Villa on goal difference. With only 2 draws it really could go either way.

5. A draw and a defeat – One point could see us safe if Arsenal can beat Wigan and any of Sunderland and Norwich fail to win any more points. In short, we would be relying on results to go our way. The best we position we can hope for in this case is 15^th, worst being 18^th.

6. Two defeats out of two – This is what you call squeaky bum time, time for praying and hoping. Given the way the fixtures are, it could come down to goal difference and that is pure lottery. We could still finish a place higher if Norwich suffers bad defeats but could very well go down on goal difference and/or points , should that transpire.

The key fixtures in the run in will be (apart from Newcastle’s)

• Aston Villa Vs Chelsea
• Norwich Vs West Brom
• Manchester City Vs Norwich
• Sunderland Vs Southampton
• Arsenal Vs Wigan Athletic
• Wigan Athletic Vs Aston villa
• Tottenham Vs Sunderland

It could come down to the finest of all fine margins come Sunday May 19^th and it could be a situation we may have to endure rather than enjoy. But my gut feeling is that we will be safe and will be an integral part of the 2013-14 Premier League campaign.