Paul Merson ranks the top five favorites to win Euro 2024

The club football season drew to a dramatic climax as Manchester United somehow managed to upset Manchester City in the FA Cup final - who saw that coming? Poor old Arsenal just needed Man City to play one such game in their last 15 to win the title, but it didn't happen for them!

Elsewhere, Real Madrid were once again crowned kings of the continent as they beat Borussia Dortmund at Wembley to win the UEFA Champions League for the 15th time in their history. Dortmund were by far the better team in the first half and should have broken the deadlock. I said to my little boy at halftime that they didn't take their chances and it would come back to bite them back and that's exactly what happened as Real Madrid cruised to a 2-0 win in second gear.

After a little break, football is set to resume in Germany for the European championships as teams look to pip one another for continental kingship. I'm going to omit Belgium and Spain from my top five as I believe the teams that I've chosen stand a much better chance of making it through to the business end of Euro 2024. Belgium's golden generation is done and they've disappointed me every time in a major tournament.

Similarly, this is hardly the best Spain squad we've seen in recent years. There will be a game where you see them and think they're going to win it all, but it won't happen. If there's a trophy for who keeps the ball the longest, it'll probably be them - sometimes it feels like they pass the ball around forever and go nowhere with it.

#5 Italy

Italy are the defending champions and although they don't have a lorry load of bonafide superstars, I think they're well equipped to deal with tournament football. I don't think they will get close to retaining their crown and I only have them at #5 because they are the holders. It's strange to think they didn't qualify for the 2022 FIFA World Cup after winning the European championships a year before, but a lot has changed within the team in recent years.

Italy are always solid at the back but I doubt that will be enough if they are to become a force to be reckoned with in the knockout. Goalscoring might be an issue for them in the tournament. I like Andrea Belotti - he's their focal point and they won't be afraid to put the ball into the box for him to attack.

Luciano Spalletti is a great coach and will make his side competitive at the very least.

#4 Portugal

Portugal v Sweden - International Friendly

Portugal are an aging team but they have a lot of experience within the squad. There's too much individual quality for them not to gel together as a unit, so I think they'll fare quite well at Euro 2024. With Pepe and Ruben Dias at the back, they are defensively strong and there is a lot of guile in midfield, while they are blessed with devastating pace and goals upfront.

Bruno Fernandes is a top-class footballer and should play a starring role for Portugal, while Cristiano Ronaldo is still with the squad despite entering the twilight years of his career. He's still their captain and banging in the goals in Saudi Arabia, but I think they'll see what he's like in the camp and take a call on his selection.

I would personally leave him out of the first two league games and get qualification sorted before bringing him back for the final encounter. If he plays well, he can keep his spot and that's the right way to go about it as it's a massive jump for someone to come into the European championships after playing at such a lesser standard in Saudi.

#3 Germany

Germany Training Session And Press Conference - Herzogenaurach Training Camp Day 6

I don't think Germany are a great team but being at home is a massive advantage. It adds to the pressure, but Julian Nagelsmann's side will relish playing in front of their own fans and have a lot of strong individuals within the team.

They have a good mix of youth and experience and all eyes will be on Toni Kroos as he prepares to bid farewell to the beautiful game. The midfield maestro signed off from club football by winning his sixth UEFA Champions League trophy and will look to walk off into the sunset with a fitting farewell, this time in his home country.

There's been a lot of debate on the goalkeeping situation, but I'd start Manuel Neuer over Marc-Andre ter Stegen every day of the week. Happy camps win tournaments and he's a big personality who is loved and respected within the squad, so he should keep his place in the team. Neuer plays a big role on and off the pitch for the Germans and is a strong-minded individual whose personality will rub off on the younger players.

#2 France

France v Germany - International Friendly

Looks like it could be France vs England in the quarterfinals and it all comes down to this game. Whoever wins this one wins the tournament, it's as simple as that for me. France's leading man is the mercurial Kylian Mbappe, who is set to captain his country at a major tournament for the first time in his career. The 25-year-old has finally completed his much-anticipated move to Real Madrid and will be liberated after the conclusion of his transfer saga. He's undoubtedly France's biggest threat, but they have so much quality within their squad.

At the back, Didier Deschamps has to decide if he wants to stick with the central defensive partnership of Ibrahima Konate and Dayot Upamecano, with William Saliba also in with a chance of starting at the heart of the backline. With Eduardo Camavinga and Aurelien Tchouameni, they have two outstanding central midfield options, while N'Golo Kante has also earned a surprise recall into the squad for Euro 2024.

Much like Ronaldo, he's played a lesser standard of football recently, but he covers every blade of grass and will look to play himself into form as the tournament progresses. Antoine Griezmann has been France's most reliable player for nearly a decade and is likely to function as a free-roaming midfielder.

#1 England

England Training Session & Press Conference

Gareth Southgate faces a problem of plenty ahead of Euro 2024 as England are blessed with an embarrassment of riches. That said, they have a bit of a disadvantage as Kieran Trippier is likely to play as a left-back as Luke Shaw continues to recover from injury. He's a fantastic player in his own right but he's not been in the best of form and it's not ideal for a right footer to play on the left flank.

Harry Maguire has been omitted from the final squad, so the central defenders worry me a little bit. I think Marc Guehi will be given a go alongside John Stones for the opening game, with Lewis Dunk and Levi Colwill ready to deputize for the pair if their injury woes deepen.

I was surprised Fikayo Tomori was left out but how many players can a manager pick? We just have to trust Gareth and let him do his thing as he's the one who calls the shots. Personally, I'd have had Marcus Rashford in the squad as I think he's an X-factor player who can win you games, but what do I know?

Although I'm worried defensively, there isn't a better team in the competition than England. Five players in the front six pick themselves, with Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Harry Kane and Phil Foden all guaranteed to start. I'd pick Adam Wharton to play alongside Rice and Bellingham in midfield - he's an outstanding footballer who ticks all the boxes for a player in his position.

I don't think there is much of a risk as the kid has looked at home in the Premier League playing against some of the best teams in the country, so I hope Gareth gives him a chance and backs him through the tournament. Finally, I know it's hard to omit a player like Trent Alexander-Arnold from the starting XI for a major tournament, but I'm not sure if he plays as a right back or a midfielder, so he might be an X-factor off the bench.

Edited by Paul Merson