Paul Merson's prediction for the Arsenal vs Manchester City FA Community Shield clash

After what has seemed like a long break from official football matches in England, we're back in action with the FA Community Shield this weekend to kick off the new season. I'm one of the few people who think that this is a massive game, and it is particularly important that Arsenal make a statement against Manchester City in this game.

Arsenal lost both their Premier League games against Manchester City last season. If they lose this game as well, they'll go into a new season having lost three big games on the trot to their league rivals.

People say that you can't win the Premier League title at the start of the season, but I'll tell you one thing - you sure can lose it. You could be out of the title race in the first month and a half. If Arsenal do make a statement here, they can go into the new season brimming with confidence. They've got to make hay while the sun shines, and I think this is a big game for them.

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Manchester City could feel the absence of Gundogan and Mahrez

Riyad Mahrez was excellent for Manchester City

Over the past five years, Manchester City's biggest strength has been the depth of their squad. They've parted ways with Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez this summer, and I think it's a big gamble to get rid of them.

If Gundogan hadn't stepped up for Manchester City last season, I don't think they would've won the league title. He scored a brace on the last day of the previous season as well to clinch the title race for City. He's scored some big goals for them. I'm a big fan of Mateo Kovacic, but I don't think he can score the goals that Gundogan scores on a regular basis.

Riyad Mahrez is another big name who has scored important goals for Man City. I'm shocked that they are also letting Kyle Walker leave. They're a better defensive team when he plays, and he's still got a lot to give. His departure would definitely weaken the team.

These departures have now brought the other teams much closer to Manchester City. If Rasmus Hojlund can get going and score goals at Man United from the word go, the title race will be difficult to predict. The gap has closed not just between Arsenal and Manchester City, but among the other big names in the Premier League as well.

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Arsenal face a different kind of pressure this season

Mikel Arteta has done a brilliant job at Arsenal

A lot of people say that Arsenal melted last season, but I think it was unbelievable that they got close to Manchester City. They were still in the title race towards the end of the season, and they'll be massive players in the Premier League now. They're going to face a different kind of pressure.

I think it's going to be hard for Declan Rice to come into his own at Arsenal. When you play at West Ham, you haven't got the ball much. When you do, you keep possession to give your defence a breather. When Arsenal win the ball back, they get forward and don't mess about.

I like Aaron Ramsdale, but he's made a couple of mistakes recently. Mikel Arteta is quite ruthless, and I don't think he can afford the mistakes that seem to be creeping in. It doesn't surprise me that Arsenal are going after David Raya, and there's no way he's getting him for a big price just to sit on the bench.

Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli played to their absolute maximum last season and had brilliant break-out campaigns. They were impressive, but Harry Kane scored more league goals than the two of them put together. With Gabriel Jesus out injured, scoring goals could become a problem for Arsenal.

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Arsenal vs Manchester City Prediction

Manchester City have a good recent record against Arsenal

Arsenal have depth in their squad and have closed the gap in the transfer market. When they played in the group stages in Europe last season, they played their strongest team. They started resting players in the knock-outs and went out straight away against Sporting Lisbon. They've brought in players now to strengthen the team.

Very few people expected Arsenal to make it to the top four last season, but there are a lot of expectations from the team this season. A lot of players were unbelievable for Arsenal last season, and it's a big ask for them to produce the same quality again.

This Community Shield match will be a bigger game for Arsenal than it will be for Man City. I'm going to back Arsenal to win this game.

Prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Manchester City