Portugal at Euro 2012 - Can the dark horse rise above all ?

In 2000, they succumbed to a controversial handball decision against the French. In 2004, they had it stolen from under their noses by the Greeks and in 2008 , they went AWOL in the knock outs against the Germans. Will 2012 be the year that the Selecção finally land their first major international trophy?

Strengths

Paulo Bento’s tactical nous

Paulo Bento steadied a sinking ship since taking over the wheel from Carlos Queiroz. He has employed the 4-3-3 formation and picked players to fit the system. Without the luxury of an out-and-out attacking midfielder, Bento has got Moutinho and Meireles to work well in tandem, moving forward to prop up attacks and dropping back to support defensive lines in equal measure. The team now looks to press play with a rather high defensive line, a far cry from the waiting game favoured by previous managers. Crucially, Bento has got the best out of his key man Cristiano Ronaldo in a national jersey since taking over.

World class wingers

Ronaldo and Nani have the capacity to run the show all by themselves, as we have witnessed time and again. Both men scored wonder goals in the 6-2 thrashing of Bosnia in the playoffs to make the Euros and more of the same will be expected when they take on their more esteemed group rivals.

Tightly knit central defence

Portugal’s defensive displays have been quite solid in previous tournaments and that is set to continue with Pepe and Bruno Alves both arguably as good as anybody in their position. Given their reputation though, it is paramount that they keep their heads still and avoid controversy of any degree.

Weaknesses

Mediocre strikers

This has been the Achilles heel of Portuguese football for years now. Postiga is likely to be the man trusted to do the job and alternated with Almeida should he struggle to hit the right notes. Both men are decent in their own right, but far from “world class”. Nelson Oliveira is the third striker in the squad, but he’s young and inexperienced and as far as I’ve witnessed, is much better playing off a main centre-forward.

Midfield destroyer

Lingering doubts still exist over Miguel Veloso’s capability to handle flair players in a defensive midfield role. He had a very good game against Bosnia in the playoffs, but coming up against the likes of Ozil and Sneijder is a completely different proposition altogether. He has also barely featured for Genoa in the last month of their league campaign and it would not be a surprise to see Custodio, who had a great few months at Braga, push him hard for that spot.

Patchy full-backs

Fabio Coentrao and Joao Pereira are naturally attacking full-backs and a treat to watch when in full flight, but the fact that they represent a defensive liability cannot be understated. Coentrao found Robben and the overlapping Lahm too hot to handle during their Champions League semifinals encounter, and will come up against both men, albeit on different teams. Pereira’s own form has tailed off in the last month or two, which does not bode well for the national side.

Opportunities

Remember the Titans ?

This is a huge opportunity for every single member of the team to make a name for themselves and to bring glory to their country. Ronaldo could add to his own burgeoning personal trophy cabinet as well as stamp his reputation as an all time great. Nani could also follow in the footsteps of his more illustrious compatriot. Pepe and Bruno Alves would be remembered forever more for the right reasons rather than their hot-headed reputations that many associate with them.

Wildcards

Nelson Oliveira could complement the pace of the wide men and provide a decisive moment or two should he be called into action. Miguel Lopes has shown that he is equally adept defending on either side and could make a name for himself just like Coentrao did in the last Euros. These youngsters have tremendous potential and will see a huge rise in stock should they turn that into performance.

Impact on Domestic Football

The Portuguese league has leapfrogged the French league into 5th place in the UEFA Coefficient rankings. However, there are still many deep lying problems off the pitch. A lot of these are based around monetary issues, but a good showing from the national side might just ease that. More spectators would want to see their stars, more sponsors would look to be actively involved and larger TV contract deals could be negotiated as a result. A good performance from the national side could certainly have implications for the domestic game.

Threats

Competitive rivalry – Group of Death

Portugal will compete with Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark in Group B, all of whom are amongst the top 10 in the FIFA Rankings. Germany are billed as pre-tournament favourites for the group, with the Netherlands expected to run them close and Denmark traditionally hard to beat. This group is as difficult as it can get for Portugal, but they will be confident having passed through a similarly difficult group in World Cup 2010.

Complacency

Should Portugal make it out of the Group stages, they will take on either of Russia, Czech Republic, Poland or Greece. One of the national team’s perennial problems has been dropping their guard against less fancied opponents. They were plain pitiful in their 0-0 draws with Macedonia and Poland. Needing only a draw to qualify automatically for Euro 2012, they wound up second best to the Danes, and who needs reminding of the embarrassing 4-4 draw against Cyprus? Going further back down memory lane is only going to bring heartache, so I’ll stop right there.

Suspensions and Injuries

Portugal’s backups hardly inspire confidence. Pepe and Bruno Alves are tough tackling, no nonsense defenders and whilst that approach works more often than not, the threat of suspension looms large. Their backups Rolando and Ricardo Costa are considerably weaker options and have not had the best of times in their club careers this year. Nani’s injury dealt a hammer blow to the team’s World Cup hopes in 2010, and with Danny and now Carlos Martins ruled out this time around, Portugal will hope and pray for no more misfortunes.

Key Player

Cristiano Ronaldo

After his rich goal scoring exploits for Real Madrid, Portuguese football supporters will hope he has enough left in the tank for one final surge.

One to Watch

Rui Patricio

The goalkeeper’s displays between the sticks for Sporting have attracted the attention of top clubs around Europe. This really is his chance to prove his mettle on the world stage.

Expectations

Put simply, if Portugal are able to turn their weaknesses into strengths and their threats into opportunites, then they could go a long way in the tournament. This has been a year of dramatic finishes and surprises, and a win for the Selecção here will certain establish them among the upper echelons of footballing icons.

- Menino Pereira (Portugal Primeira Liga Analyst), follow me on twitter @FRfutebolMenino