Premier League 2017/18: Predicting the top 6 finish

After a 2-week international break, Premier League action returns this weekend, for the final chapter of the league season. There are fierce battles going on at both ends of the table, with European places and survival verdicts being handed out with the passing of every match and every result.

Manchester City have asserted an unparalleled dominance on the league table this season, and should ideally wrap up the league title within the next fortnight. With 8 games to go, they enjoy a 16-point cushion at the top, which means they could be officially crowned champions by defeating Manchester United in the Manchester derby at the Etihad Stadium on 7 April.

While they have guaranteed their Champions League qualification for next season, the other clubs in the ‘big six’ are still in the running for the three available Champions League spots. The league title might have been an easy ride, but the season is sure to have an emotional end come 13 May.

Would the current top four comprising of the two Manchester clubs, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur still hold their places in the final league standings? Would the defending champions miss out on Champions League football for the second time in three years? We take a look at the upcoming fixtures for the Premier League’s big six and predict their end-of-season finish.

---

#1 Manchester City

It's only a matter of time before Pep Guardiola lifts the Premier League title

Current Position: 1

Points: 81

Upcoming Fixtures: Everton (away), Man Utd (home), Spurs (away), Swansea (home), West Ham (away), Huddersfield (home), Brighton (home), Southampton (away)

As has been said by pundits worldwide, Pep Guardiola has transformed Manchester City to an entirely different level, and unless something extremely dramatic happens, they will be crowned champions and will lift the trophy at the Etihad Stadium in the penultimate gameweek of the season.

The gulf in class has been clearly evident this year, and they now must be dreaming about bigger targets as they also prepare themselves for a quarter-final showdown with domestic rivals Liverpool.

With 8 games to go and a maximum of 24 points available for the taking, the elusive 100-point mark is still a possibility for Guardiola’s side. While a century of points would be an extraordinary feat, they are only 15 points away from breaking Chelsea’s record of 95 points, which would etch them in the history books.

With an Invincible season already out of sight thanks to the defeat against Liverpool, this is something they would want to be accomplished. Rotation might play a key role, but with a squad as strong as City’s, this should be a cakewalk considering the season that they have had.

Predicted Points: 101

#2 Manchester United

Jose Mourinho has not been pleased with the recent performances of his players

Current Position: 2

Points: 65

Upcoming Fixtures: Swansea (home), Man City (away), West Brom (home), Bournemouth (away), Arsenal (home), Brighton (away), West Ham (away), Watford (home)

The mood around Old Trafford is really not high right now, but the Red Devils wouldn’t want to jeopardize the league table position that they have held for almost the entirety of the season.

Since going behind on goal difference to Man City after a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Southampton earlier in September 2017, Manchester United were never able to climb back to the summit of the table.

A poor run of form in October increased the difference from goals to points, and three consecutive draws to mark the end of 2017 raised fears of a top four battle. They were able to then win at crucial times, including two important victories against their big six rivals in Chelsea and Liverpool.

Their run-in to the end of the season is not the kindest, as they face two of the big teams, but it’s still pretty comfortable. A second-place finish is not what the Manchester United fans would have wanted at the start of the season, but it’s a significant improvement in the league standings from the previous season.

An FA Cup title along with the runners-up position would be a decent finish and would add another trophy to Jose Mourinho’s and Manchester United’s cabinet.

Predicted Points: 85

#3 Tottenham Hotspur

Not an improvement league position-wise, but still a great season at Tottenham Hotspur

Current Position: 4

Points: 61

Upcoming Fixtures: Chelsea (away), Stoke (away), Man City (home), Brighton (away), Watford (home), West Brom (away), Newcastle (home), Leicester (home)

Spurs kick off their final leg of the season with a tough encounter against their city rivals Chelsea followed by another away game at Stoke. The matters don’t get easy as they could potentially welcome league leaders Man City with a guard of honour.

Harry Kane’s injury has increased the gravity of the situation for them, but Son Heung-Min has stepped up extremely well this season and should be able to support Spurs until Kane returns, which could either be the game against City or the game against Brighton.

Mauricio Pochettino has led Tottenham Hotspur towards improved league finishes every season since he took over, but this season could be the anomaly as the improvement from last year’s second-place finish is now impossible.

Of late, Spurs have had strong finishes to their seasons, and this season shouldn’t be any different, considering four of the teams that they face in the last five fixtures are currently in the bottom half of the table.

They are two points behind Liverpool, but they do have a game in hand. They have also been knocked out of the Champions League, and that would play into their hands for an improvement in the league position by the end of the season.

Predicted Points: 80

#4 Liverpool

Another entertaining season at Liverpool for Jurgen Klopp

Current Position: 3

Points: 63

Upcoming Fixtures: Crystal Palace (away), Everton (away), Bournemouth (home), West Brom (away), Stoke (home), Chelsea (away), Brighton (home)

The only team in the top six with only 7 fixtures left in the Premier League, Liverpool have been at their entertaining best and remain the only team to have handed Manchester City a league defeat this season.

While some were expecting that the departure of Philippe Coutinho to Barcelona earlier in January would halt their strong campaign thus far, no repercussions have yet been seen as they have held their own and in fact, have improved vastly in an area where there were evident problems – defence.

Over the last 7 games across all competitions, Liverpool have managed to keep a clean sheet in five of them, thereby elevating their game and helping them advance to the Champions League quarterfinals for the first time in 9 years.

Mohamed Salah has been in scintillating form throughout the season and is a strong favourite for the Player of the Season award. With 28 league goals so far, he now leads the Golden Boot charts.

With Kane’s return at least a couple of weeks away, Salah should be able to increase that difference and become the third Liverpool player to win the Premier League Golden Boot. His form will be crucial to a strong end to the season, and with fixtures being kind to them, they should be able to manage Champions League football for the second year running.

Predicted Points: 79

#5 Chelsea

Would Antonio Conte be at Chelsea next season?

Current Position: 5

Points: 56

Upcoming Fixtures: Spurs (home), West Ham (home), Southampton (away), Burnley (away), Swansea (away), Liverpool (home), Huddersfield (home), Newcastle (away)

Chelsea’s season has been a far cry from the last one that they had under Antonio Conte. There have been no winning streaks, and there surely has been no motivation and support as Conte has continuously blamed the board for not being able to meet his transfer targets.

They were recently accused of committing a crime against football, as they debuted ‘walking football’ in their match against Manchester City. A couple of nutmeg goals from Lionel Messi followed a few days later that knocked them out of Champions League, leaving Conte’s position at risk. For another year running, a Premier League title defence has gone haywire as Chelsea have now mathematically lost the Premier League title.

The Blues are yet to face Spurs and Liverpool, both at Stamford Bridge, and while victories in those two matches could certainly set them up for a possible top-four finish, it still wouldn’t guarantee that, as they would still have some difficult away games to navigate. They might get a strong finish, but the damage has already been done.

Predicted Points: 78

#6 Arsenal

This is all set to be Arsenal's worst season under Arsene Wenger

Current Position: 6

Points: 48

Upcoming Fixtures: Stoke (home), Southampton (home), Newcastle (away), West Ham (home), Man Utd (away), Burnley (home), Leicester (away), Huddersfield (away)

Some would argue if Arsenal really need to be in today’s conversation for a potential top-four finish. Perhaps it’s not really a big six, and instead a big five.

With every matchday, Arsenal’s top-four hopes get bleaker and bleaker and certainly, this is not the route for them if they are to return to play Champions League football next year. They would have better chances if they commit all their eggs to the Europa League basket just like Jose Mourinho did with Manchester United last year.

If Arsenal keep getting advanced in the Europa League, it could lead to more rotation and more opportunities for the youngsters in the Arsenal squad. However, the cup-tied nature of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang would still help them clinch points in the Premier League that would keep their 6th spot secured from the sights of Burnley. That would still mean that they are looking at their lowest league finish since 1994/95.

Predicted Points: 66