Premier League Preview: Manchester City vs Chelsea

Its finally upon us. Another meeting between the Premier League’s hottest favorites, as Manchester City play host to Chelsea in an attempt to continue their stunning form. For those who don’t know already, the Citizens have racked up a mesmerizing goal tally of 115 goals in all competitions this season, a bulk of those coming at the Etihad Stadium. With just 3 points separating City at the top and Chelsea in 3rd, this is one of those fixtures which can turn the title race either way round. The teams meet on Monday night at the Etihad in the last game of the weekend.

On the back of a frustrating goalless draw against a ’19th century’ West Ham (as per Mourinho himself), Chelsea would be dying to take advantage of City’s dire upcoming schedule in a fixture that poses considerable problems for the away side. On the same night, City put 5 past Tim Sherwood’s resurgent Tottenham, sweeping them aside without trouble. This then is the measure of the task that lies ahead of the Blues, and ready or not, it’s coming.

History

As far as history is concerned, City have won 32 of the 69 meetings in their own backyard, with Chelsea winning 21, and 16 have been drawn. Recent seasons have shown a positive growth for City, as we have to go back to 2008/09 for Chelsea’s last success in the blue half of Manchester. This fixture averages around 1.3 goals per game, and if Chelsea’s tactics in big games away from home this season are anything to go by, this one may yield a scanty number of goals.

City won the corresponding fixture last season 2-0, but Chelsea are one of only five teams to have beaten City this season, having won the reverse fixture 2-1 in November. And though history seems to favor City, Mourinho has lost only two of the seven games he has played against the Citizens, winning four times.

As far as the managerial head-to-head is considered, Mourinho has won 5 of his 7 games against Pellegrini, losing just once. All but one of those games, however were played when Pellegrini was managing Malaga, and Mourinho Real Madrid. It will, thus only be a psychological factor at its very best.

Stats

A reason why this promises to be a mouthwatering clash is that City, with 68 goals are the meanest attack in the league, and Chelsea with just 20 conceded are the tightest defense. It builds up to be a tactical battle of City’s attack against Chelsea’s defence, but that does not undermine Chelsea’s attacking credentials.

Though City have scored more goals away from home than Chelsea have scored at the Bridge, Jose Mourinho will spend every ounce of his tactical genius to counter his opposite number in the City dugout. The difference between the two teams as attacking forces is that while Chelsea don’t have the luxury of a 20, or even a 15 goal striker in their repertoire, City, have two.

Chelsea had won their last 5 games in the league before West Ham held fort, but still showcase an 8 match unbeaten run. This too, however seems average when compared the City’s. The leaders have won 8 straight league games and are unbeaten in 12, and are one of the most in form teams in all of Europe. They have scored 14 and conceded 10 goals in the last 15 minutes of games this season, and with Chelsea scoring 12 and conceding 4 in that period themselves, a late goal or two can be expected. City have won 4 games by more than 4 goals this season, while Chelsea’s biggest wins have all come by a 3 goal margin.

Teams

Chelsea and City both play 2 men in the pivot. And while Chelsea’s fluidity depends on the ‘three behind the striker’, City rely on two men upfront. Vincent Kompany and Martin Demichelis remain Pellegrini’s trusted centre-back pairing, and Joe Hart, along with fullbacks Zabaleta and Kolarov are expected to be the five comprising City’s defence. Fernandinho and the ever present Yaya Toure will sit just in front of the back four, and Navas and Silva will most likely complete the midfield. With Samir Nasri already out, top scorer Sergio Aguero‘s hamstring injury does come a blow to the Citizens, but Pellegrini can turn to Dzeko to pair Negredo upfront.

Chelsea’s team selection, particularly in the pivot, is anybody’s guess. While Cech, Terry, Cahill, Ivanovic and Azpilicueta will almost surely make the defence, the two in front of that defence remain uncertain. Ramires may be the one favorite, but Mourinho has a tough task of naming a partner. Frank Lampard‘s performance against West Ham might earn him a place, although new signing Nemanja Matic is another strong option, and Mikel may also play in that role.

As he has so often done in big games, the special one may start Willian, Oscar and Hazard behind Samuel Eto’o, who is their top scoring striker. With Torres out injured, there is no doubt about the lone man, unless Mourinho plays a ‘false nine’. Chelsea will have Andre Schurrle and Demba Ba in attacking options on the bench, and they can turn to Luiz too.

Tactics

Tactically, Chelsea are most likely to sit solid in defence, and soak up the pressure that City will put on them, relying on counter-attacks, one area where Chelsea are better than their coveted opponents. Both teams struggle in defending set pieces, and this could prove crucial either way. Make no mistake about the fact that City are so ruthless, but Chelsea still stand a chance in this game only due to the influential presence of Jose Mourinho.

There are few managers in the world as shrewd as Mourinho is, and his tactics will be of counter-attacking, unless he surprises us. In his press conferences, he has referred to City as ‘a complete product’ while his team is ‘still transitional’. Recently, he claimed that City can put five, even six goals past his team, and also called the opponents ‘lucky’.

Pellegrini isn’t that much of a orator, and he lets his team do the talking. How Mourinho’s mind games will affect the game is what remains to be seen, but between two managers with a special acumen for tactical battles, it promises to be a match worth the wait.

Final say

It will surely take a brave man to bet on this fixture, and though the stats shift the balance heavily in the Citizens’ favor, taking Chelsea out of this one will be a foolish thing to do. With players like Negredo, Toure, Silva, Hazard and Oscar on show, this is one fixture no football fan can afford to miss. With both teams in the thick of the title race as it speeds up, a result in this clash of the titans may prove crucial, come the end of the season.

Whoever emerges triumphant on the Manchester soil won’t essentially be crowned champions, but winning this match will certainly boost the chances of either. Historically, it is games like these that define the title races, and if all the buildup is anything to go by, we are in for a cracker. Expect drama at its very best on display, and brace yourself for the Monday night game.