Preview: Arsenal vs Liverpool - Arsenal's point of view

Hangovers can be notoriously hard to shake off, and it’s likely that Arsenal were struggling with one from when we hosted Man U just a few days after the Annihilation at Anfield. However, rumors of our demise, to paraphrase Mark Twain, have been greatly exaggerated. For as dissatisfying as the home-draw was, it was our 11th clean sheets in 12 matches at the Emirates.

Looking further back into recent history lends hope to the idea that we might see a ‘second-leg’ comeback similar to those against Bayern or AC Milan in the Champions League.

Of course, this isn’t a second leg of the same sort. It’s not even the same competition as we shift from the Prem to the FA Cup. There are conflicting motivations as we and Liverpool prepare. At their end, this might be the only piece of silverware within reach. With an eye towards solidifying a top-four spot, Liverpool can probably afford to go all-out on Sunday with a full-strength squad.

At our end, we have to wonder how realistic our chances are in the Prem and in the Champions League–and perhaps decided that the FA Cup might be our best chance as silverware. Of course, there’s the thirst for revenge. and what better way to quench that thirst than by dumping Liverpool from the Cup?

Liverpool very good at set pieces

After all, for as fearsome as Liverpool can be at Anfield, they are only middle-of-the-pack at best away from home. Their +29 goal-differential home drops to +5, and they’ve managed 19 points from 13 matches. They’re still the league’s highest-scoring side on the road, but they’re the Prem’s fifth-highest away-goals total. The home-away contrast may not be as stark as it is for, say, Man City, but it’s enough to suggest that we’ll see a very different match on Sunday.

Speaking of fearsome, that garish 5-1 scoreline came from a concatenation of factors that we’re unlikely to see, much less offer, a second time. Individual errors. Set-piece goals. Poor marking. Liverpool’s first two goals came, after all, on set-pieces. While Liverpool does lead the Prem in goals from set-pieces (17), the memory of those two salvos will certainly be fresh in our minds as we prepare. Skrtel’s two goals set the tone for the rest of the match, and shutting down that threat by limiting the set-pieces and marking more tightly would make a significant difference between now and a week ago.

Beyond that, of course, will be the continued necessity of shutting down Suarez. While he didn’t score at Anfield, he was still dangerous enough to hit the woodwork and deliver an assist. Liverpool’s shift from a 3-5-2 to a 4-3-3 saw him move to the right where he was able to maneuver past Monreal frequently.

Shutting him down, then, will require greater awareness from our left flank. With Santi Cazorla ruled out by Arsene, we may see Podolski return but only if he can convince Arsene that he will track back to assist Gibbs or Monreal.

That formation shift flummoxed us a bit at the offensive end; whereas we were able to run into space and create chances against that 3-5-2 back in November, we rarely threatened against a four-man back-line even as it contented itself to defend deep to defend a four-goal lead. With that in mind, we’ll have first work to limit the early goals that allowed Liverpool to set up so defensively, of course, but then look for ways to create opportunities for ourselves. .

Injecting some pace by starting Gnabry on the right could be a start, but more-incisive passing will be vital. Last week, we managed only four key passes and not a single accurate through-ball. Part of this reflects Liverpool’s early lead and resulting defensive set-up, but a larger part reflects the shell-shock that afflicted our squad. By the time we managed to get the ball up past midfield, it was very nearly halftime, and the scoreline was already 4-0.

This time through, avoiding the catastrophic start is the priority, and I’d submit that the pride and determination that saw this squad bounced back from a similar shellacking at the Etihad (followed by a 0-0 draw with Chelsea, for what that’s worth) will be enough to carry the day.

Last Three Meetings

• Liverpool 5-1 Arsenal 08.02.2014
• Arsenal 2-0 Liverpool 02.11.2013
• Arsenal 2-2 Liverpool 30.01.2013

Factfile

• These two teams have combined to appear in 31 FA Cup finals – Arsenal 17 times, Liverpool 14.
• The last time these two met in the FA Cup was a third-round, 1-3 Arsenal win at Anfield in 2007.
• In 95 trips to Arsenal, Liverpool averages less than a goal per game (0.88) while carrying away a record of 21 wins, 32 draws, and 42 losses.
• Arsenal has lost just one of its last 36 home-matches in the FA Cup competition.

Injuries

Flamini is back from suspension, but Walcott (knee), Diaby (knee), Vermaelen (knee), Ramsey (thigh), Källström (back) are out, and Cazorla (illness) looks to be unavailable.

Possible Starting XI

Fabianski; Gibbs, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Sagna; Flamini, Rosicky; Podolski, Özil, Gnabry, Bendtner

A third consecutive match without a win might bring criticisms to a fever-pitch; however, we’ll go in bound and determined to atone and avenge last week’s result.

Goonersphere’s Prediction

Arsenal 2-1 Liverpool