Why Radamel Falcao might not be such a bad bet for Chelsea

In a potential move which has come under much scrutiny, it now seems certain that Radamel Falcao will join Chelsea. The striker's performances last season at Old Trafford have led to fans and pundits alike to believe that the 29-year-old Columbia captain will not be successful enough for the Blues.

Has the real Falcao disappeared? His performances for his national team in the Copa America have suggested a certain drop in form for a forward who had scored 52 goals in 67 appearances for Athletico Madrid and 41 goals in 48 games for FC Porto.

What every football cynic wants to know is whether Falcao will be the newest Chelsea number nine to flop at Stamford Bridge emulating the likes of Andriy Shevchenko and Fernando Torres.

The lowdown on Falcao

The problem with Falcao is both physical and psychological - the knee injury he suffered in January of last year while at Monaco has caused a certain drop in his all round game and the striker hasn't coped well after it. That coupled with the pressure of playing for Manchester United - a definite step up from his 3 previous clubs (Porto, Atletico Madrid and Monaco) and his inability to adapt quickly to the rigours of the Premier League have caused El Tigre to lose his bite.

However, the stats beg to differ.

Falcao made more high-intensity runs, covered more ground per 90 minutes and had a higher top speed than Robin van Persie in 2014/15.

According to Opta data, of getting on the end of clear cut chances, the stats are positive as well clearly highlighting that his knack of finding space inside the box and his predatory movement isn’t lost as yet.

The forward put the final touch on 11 clear cut chances for Manchester United in the 2014/15 Premier League season at a rate of one every 117 minutes - more often than Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney. That ratio also compares favourably with the other Chelsea strikers too - in particular, Loic Remy's total of one chance every 133 minutes and Didier Drogba's stats of getting on the end of one opportunity every 285 minutes. However his inability to finish them is something that must be addressed while Remy scored 7 Falcao scored just 4.

Overall though Falcao is very much a team player. According to Squawka stats, he has created 18 chances, made a handy 4 assists, made 14 key passes, has a pass accuracy of 86% - again more than Drogba and Remy and wins 27% of his aerial duels.

Stats (EPL 14/15 – via Squawka)	Appearances	Goals	Assists	Key Passes	Passing Accuracy (%)	Shot Accuracy	Headers Won (%)	Chances Created
Radamel Falcao	26	4	4	14	86%	55%	27%	18
Didier Drogba	28	4	1	13	60%	36%	49%	14
Loic Remy	19	7	0	5	82%	59%	35%	5

There's no doubt that Falcao when at his fearsome best is one of the best strikers in Europe and that is exactly what has appealed to Jose Mourinho who has vowed to get the best out of the Columbian.

"If I can help Falcao reach his level again, I will do it," Mourinho said. "It hurts me that people in England think that the real Falcao is the one we saw at Manchester United. In Spain we were together when he was at Atletico and I was at Real and I know him very, very well. He is a great player."

Whether this is just a post injury dip in form and a loss of confidence rather than a permanent regression in ability remains to be seen but the Blues will take full advantage of Falcao's current diminished status in bringing him to Stamford bridge and using him as a second choice striker behind Diego Costa while providing healthy competition for the injury prone Spain international.

Mourinho knows very well that he is getting a top class player for a bargain and will be determined to get the best out of him.

The one-year loan is the perfect litmus test for Mourinho to determine whether Falcao could be an integral part of his championship winning side. For a striker now entering the prime of his career the intriguing thing now is to see whether El Tigre gets back to his best at Chelsea or misfires.