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The final part of this 4 part series, Part 4 takes into account the last 5 PL teams, based on alphabetical order, and the figures that are central to their build-up play. (Links to Part 1 Part 2 and Part 3).
The only way to win a football match is to score more goals than your opponent. That’s criminally oversimplifying a complex game but you get the gist of it. Scoring goals is paramount. No wonder attacking players command the highest transfer fees and wage packages.
But is all that acclaim justified? The highlight reels of matches usually just concentrate on the goals or the passes that led to the goal. But what about the build-up to a goal? Isn’t that equally important? Historically, valuing a player’s contribution to the build-up of a goal was difficult, to say the least, but with the advent of new data metrics, it has now become relatively easier and more intuitive. One such metric is xGBuildup.
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xGBuildup allows teams and fans alike to put a number to the contribution by a player leading up to a goal. xGBuildup came into existence due to xG or expected goals.
xGbuildup can be explained using an example. Let’s consider the goal Christian Eriksen scored against Manchester United on 31st Jan 2018 (Video for the goal starts at 0:48 in the tweet below).
This is how the ball progressed.
Dembele => Vertonghen => Kane =>Alli (assist) => Eriksen (goal).
Let’s assume that the expected probability of the goal being scored under those particular circumstances (i.e. from that distance, angle etc) by Eriksen is 0.4 or in other words, the xG of that goal is 0.4.
Formerly, only Eriksen would have been rewarded with an xG of 0.4. But now, xGBuildup can reward the players who were involved in the build-up to this goal (or for that matter even in the build-up for any passage of play that just ended up in a shot).
In this passage of play, every player involved but the player who provided the pass that leads to the goal and the player who scored is rewarded. That is, in this case, Dembele, Vertonghen and Kane are all rewarded with a +0.4 in their xGBuildup tally. According to StatsBomb, xGBuildup can be calculated in the following manner:
1. Find all the possessions each player is involved in.
2. Find all the shots within those possessions.
3. Sum the xG of the shots
4. Assign that sum to each player, however, involved they were.
As illustrated in the example of Eriksen’s goal above, xGBuildup is found for every shot taken by a team.
Hopefully, this example helps in understanding xGBuildup and its value as a statistical metric. (This statistical metric can be used by teams to smother their opponent’s attacks by marking their most important player, during their build-up play, out of the game. This can have a lasting effect on the game, as Jorginho himself has admitted more than once)
But using the raw xGBuildup metric without normalising it over 90 minutes would produce biased results and defeat the purpose. This is because xGBuildup value for a player who has been on the pitch for a longer time will tend to be greater.
To redress the balance, we divide a player’s “xGBuildup” value by his “Total Minutes Played” value to get xGBuildup/Total Mins. Post this, we can multiply this value by 90 to get xGBuildup/90 or xGBuildup Per 90 minutes.
xGBuildup/90 = (xGBuildup/Total Minutes Played) * 90
For the sake of continuity when it comes to the previous parts of this series, we consider only the first 21 EPL games that a team played. That’s a maximum total of 1890 minutes (21*90, excluding extra time). To make sure we don’t encounter any outliers or players who weren’t regularly involved, any player who appeared for his club for less than 800 minutes (out of a possible 1890) was excluded from this list. This means that all the players in this list have at least 800 minutes under their belt this season.
So here it is (the teams appear in alphabetical order). Listing every Premier League team’s most important player during their build-up of play in this season.
#16 Southampton – James Ward-Prowse – xGBuildup Per 90: 0.286
Ward-Prowse was still a few months shy of 17 when he made his debut for Southampton. Unlike his famed academy counterparts who ended up leaving the club for greener pastures, Ward-Prowse has stuck around. Only Ryan Bertrand has played in more games than Ward-Prowse has since the beginning of the 2014/15 season and only Bertrand and Romeu have played more minutes than he has in that time.
This season, he has been more consistent than ever before. Ward-Prowse, the Saints’ vice-captain, has already started more games this season than he had started in any other campaign before. He’s one of only 7 outfield players to have played every minute of their PL campaign this season.
He’s become more involved in the buildup play, going up from an xGBuildup of 0.192 last season to 0.286 this one, an increase of 49%. A major constituent of this rise has been his audacious long balls. He completes 0.5 long key passes in the PL, the 17th most by any player. Also, for all the players that have more than 9 appearances in the PL, he has the 13th highest tackles won per 90 minutes.
An overlooked aspect of his game, Ward-Prowse’s crosses can often cause havoc in the opponent’s penalty box. His accuracy and intelligence to pick out the right person at the right time meant that his team-mates often probed for him so that he can cross the ball into the penalty box. No wonder he attempts 6.75 crosses Per 90, 8th most in the PL for any player with more than 900 minutes.
#17 Tottenham Hotspur – Tanguy Ndombele – xGBuildup Per 90: 0.408
Jose Mourinho has seen history repeat itself a few times now. He’s won the Champions League title twice, both times when his teams were touted as the underdogs. Everyone knows about Jose’s third-season syndrome. Unfortunately for Jose, he’s had another bizarre Déjà vu moment this season.
Just like he had at Manchester United in his last season with them, Jose has a mercurial French midfielder giving him sleepless nights. Ndombele hasn’t yet hit the ground running in the PL. He has played only 218 minutes under Jose Mourinho in the PL, out of a possible 1080. 15 players have played more minutes under Jose than he has.
Spurs hadn’t quite recovered from losing the ‘genius’ Dembele. Since the 2009/10 PL season, only Gareth Bale (in 2012/13 – 7.92) had a higher Whoscored rating in the PL than Dembele had in 15/16 (7.69). Ndombele, from the looks of it, was a like for like replacement for the Belgian conductor.
Ndombele started his professional career on the wing, a position that suited his acumen for pace and dribbling. At Lyon, he was moved to the centre of the park and has since made this position his own.
In the list of the 20 players in the PL with the highest xGBuildup for their respective teams, NDombele has played the least number of minutes. Nevertheless, his inclusion in the list is not without merit. He had topped this list with Lyon as well (last year) with an xGBuildup of 0.447 and he’s carried a lot of the qualities he displayed at Lyon with him at Spurs.
Ndombele is an ace dribbler, something even Dembele was known for. NDombele ranks 25th in the PL for most successful dribbles (more than 7 app.) and amongst those top 25, he has the 2nd highest % of Successful Dribbles/Total Dribbles (80%), bettered only by Kovacic.
His exceptional dribbling quality makes him adept at breaking the opponent’s press and if Mourinho is to succeed at Spurs, he will have to make sure he can form a working relationship with NDombele. Mourinho has been down this road with Paul Pogba (ironically, NDombele made his senior France debut by coming on as a substitute for Pogba in 2018) and he should know better than most who triumphs in this cold war.
#18 Watford – Etienne Capoue – xGBuildup Per 90: 0.258
Let’s swiftly move from Tottenham’s future – NDombele, to Tottenham’s past – Capoue. Capoue started his fruitful career with Toulouse in France’s first division at the age of nineteen. In the following 4 years, he played a part in 87% of all the minutes that Toulouse played in, a commendable feat for a youngster, and a harbinger of things to come.
Spurs subsequently swooped in and bought him after his most productive season. Although he was used sparingly by Spurs, he did his part whenever called upon. Watford saw the potential in him and bought him when they got promoted to the PL.
62 players have represented Watford in the PL since 2015/16 but no one has been more of a constant than Capoue has been. He’s played the most minutes for Watford since they came up to the PL, even more than revered club legend Deeney. What’s more, only 15 players in the PL have played more than Capoue has since the start of the 2015/16 season.
Capoue displays a wide array of attributes that most managers would love, from a modern-day midfielder. He loves playing on the front foot – 2.3 interceptions per game, only 2 players in the PL have more. He has won the 10th most tackles in the PL (2.7 per game) and has the most on the Watford team.
Not only that but amongst all the players classified as non-attacking MFs (for ex. Emiliano Buendía from Part 3 does NOT come under this bracket) on Whoscored (with more than 9 app.) Capoue has won the 13th most number of aerial duels per game and has the 2nd highest % of Duels Won/Total Duels (66.67%). It should come as no surprise that he was named as Watford’s player of the year last season.
#19 West Ham – Manuel Lanzini – xGBuildup Per 90: 0.314
Life’s good for Slaven Bilić right now. His side is sitting atop the English Championship table and they just knocked his old side – West Ham out of the FA Cup, that too at West Ham’s stomping ground. Other than revisiting the place he called home a few years back, Bilić also happened to meet a few players who shone under his tutelage during his time at West Ham. One of them was Manuel Lanzini.
Lanzini’s loan deal was converted into a permanent deal in 2016 while Bilić was the manager and it was under him that Lanzini probably played his best football. Although he hasn’t scaled the same peaks off late, Lanzini is still a name to conjure with. The diminutive playmaker has been posting some credible numbers this season, even though he hasn’t played a lot.
He’s completing the 24th highest dribbles per game in the PL. Additionally, he’s recording the 5th highest dribbling success rate % in the list of Top 50 successful dribblers (Successful dribbles/Total dribbles – 76%) in the PL. Lanzini is also completing the 17th most through balls by a midfielder in the PL (more than 900 minutes)
Moreover, Lanzini has completed the 15th highest number of passes into the final third per 90 (900+ minutes) in the PL. On top of that, he is also completing the 13th most crosses into the penalty area (by a midfielder) per 90 in the PL and the 9th highest (2.5 per 90) number of key passes by any player in the PL (900+ mins). Ending with the most impressive stat of them all, he has the highest % of short passes completed by any outfield player in the PL (74.2%) this season.
#20 Wolverhampton Wanderers – Romain Saiss – xGBuildup Per 90: 0.373
Romain Saiss has learned his trade the hard way. He started his professional career in the 5th tier of French football and slowly rose through the ranks. He eventually got signed by Wolves when they were competing to come up to the prestigious PL. He played a pivotal role in their successful bid to attain Championship glory and was on the pitch for the 6th most number of minutes for Wolves during that season.
But life’s trajectory isn’t always linear. Wolves signed Leander Dendoncker and João Moutinho to help them compete in the PL and subsequently, Romain lost his starting position and played sporadically last season.
Romain presumably kept working hard. Courtesy an injury and some bad form by his team-mate, he got a chance to play and has had his resurgence as a centre back under Nuno Espírito Santo.
Romain is adept on the ground as well as in the air. His towering presence has meant that he wins a lot of the aerial duels he participates in. Moreover, he is remarkably accurate with his tackles and rarely gets dribbled past. He has the highest tackle success rate for any Wolves’ player with more than 350 minutes in the PL. (79%).
The Moroccan international knows how to work a football, as is evident from the number of accurate long balls he feeds to his team-mates. Romain averages 3.8 accurate long balls a game and only 3 other Wolves player can boast of a higher number. No wonder Romain is their most important player during the build-up of their play.
This is the end of Part 4 of this 4 part series. Although not exactly talking about build-up, Rodri, in his interview with The Guardian had this to say about players like Xabi Alonso, Sergio Busquets, Xavi that echoes the sentiment of their importance to their respective sides.
The fact these type of players are often overlooked by their attacking counterparts is commonplace, but what's commendable is that they still carry on selflessly and it's high time we give credit where credit is due.
"You can choose between doing what’s best for the team or what showcases what you can do. Forwards get the spotlight, which is understandable because the hardest thing is scoring goals, but there’s work behind that which has to be done."
Stat source(s): www.understat.com, https://fbref.com/en/, www.whoscored.com
ICYMI: Links to Part 1 Part 2 and Part 3
