Real Madrid, Barcelona or Atletico Madrid - Who will win La Liga?

The La Liga Trophy

Finally, the La Liga title race has been expanded from 2 teams to 3 teams this season, and it could go down to the last round of fixtures, as Barcelona hosts current leaders Atletico Madrid at home. As we look in at the run-ins of each of the 3 teams, it probably looks like Real Madrid are favourites considering their easier run-in.

I have analysed and predicted the results of each of these 3 teams, and their estimated points tally at the end of the season.

The Madrid teams, who are the only teams among the 3 that are in the UEFA Champions League, could meet in the Champions League final, while their semi-final commitments could end up in either slip-ups or nervous wins. Real Madrid seems to have a favourable set of fixtures while Atletico, who have a thinner squad, could be vulnerable as they travel to Stamford Bridge 3 days after the game against Valencia.

Looking at Barcelona, Villareal could cause a very shaky and injury-hit Barca defence quite a few problems, while the last game against Atletico is a key fixture for both teams. A win for Atletico would give them the title, while a draw or loss could hand over the La Liga title to city rivals Real Madrid.

While teams which are not in the Champions League are showing improvements in their local leagues, Barca’s huge injury list plus terrible form have seen them slip off the radar, and are now favourites to finish third.

Now, as we look into detail at each teams’ fixtures, let us start with Atletico Madrid. The game just before the return leg of the semi-final Champions league, which is away to Chelsea, is against Valencia. Simeone should rest many of his key players, and that should help Valencia gain a point in their late surge towards Europa League football next season. The next couple of fixtures, against mid-table teams, namely Levante and Malaga should be routine victories, while the last game, and the marquee clash against Barcelona could end in neither of the teams getting the result they want. Also, the challenge of inexperience could lead to a very nervous display at the Camp Nou, which might just hand the title over to city rivals Real.

Moving on to Real Madrid, who seem to be oozing in confidence after their victory against European champions Bayern Munich, they face Osasuna and Valencia at home, which has been something of a fortress this season. Then, trips to Valladolid and Celta Vigo, who are both in the bottom half, should again be an easy 6 points for Carlo Ancelotti and his boys, while the last home game against Espanyol could be tricky, as they will have half their eye on the Barca-Atleti game. Real Madrid should really be favourites to win the last game though.

Ever since the turn of the year, Barca have never looked like the dominating force, when it comes to scoring goals. With 3 of their back 4 out injured, the makeshift defence has looked extremely vulnerable, even against the bottom sides. Villareal, which hosts Barca, is aiming to play Europa League football, and looking at current form, the Yellow Submarine could get a result. Then, two relegation contenders play Barca – Elche and Getafe – and sides that may not possibly have enough attacking firepower to defeat the Catalans. As mentioned earlier, Atleti could either be held or beaten by Barca, depending on the level of pressure on Atletico and the form of a returning Neymar and co.

So while Real Madrid’s victory over Bayern has given them real hope of a treble, the La Liga race is still not yet a foregone conclusion. While Atletico Madrid are neutrals’ favourites to win, considering their underdog tag, it would show other mid-table clubs in the League that if there is a good philosophy as well as a solid transfer policy, a fight for the title is in store.