Reina vs Mignolet: Why the stats prove Liverpool’s gamble has paid off

Simon Mignolet

Liverpool manager Brendan Rodgers has had to deal with several big transfer situations since arriving at the club in the summer of 2012, but one of the most high-profile was one of his own making and own decision to follow through with: to replace long-term first-choice goalkeeper Pepe Reina with former Sunderland stopper Simon Mignolet.

The move was certainly a brave one, as Reina—sent on loan to Serie A side Napoli—had been a feature of the Reds’ Premier League teams since the start of the 2005-06 campaign, winning an FA Cup and a League Cup medal along the way, as well as playing in a Champions League final in 2007.

All that, though, counted for nothing when Rodgers assessed that his performances were not up to scratch and a new, younger keeper would better serve the team, so did the manager make the right call in signing Mignolet to take his place?

While Reina this season has posted improved numbers at Napoli compared to last term at Anfield, it is Reina from last season against Mignolet from this term which should be compared.

In that regard, there is plenty of evidence to support Rodgers’ choice of replacing the Spaniard with the Belgian.

Starting with the most basic, Mignolet’s four clean sheets in 11 appearances equates to one every 2.75 matches, slightly higher than the one every 2.2 games that Reina managed last season. Of course, keeping clean sheets is something that can be attributed to the entire team or defence, though, and Liverpool and Rodgers will expect this season’s average to get progressively lower as the season goes on and the three other new arrivals at the back—Mamadou Sakho, Kolo Toure and Aly Cissokho—continue to improve and adapt to the defensive techniques of the team.

Simon Mignolet Clean Sheets This Season

Aside from mere clean sheets, the goals tally might be more telling.

Reina conceded a total of 34 goals in his 31 appearances last term, an average of 1.1 goals per game, despite his 14 clean sheets.

That clearly points to the team as a whole being beaten too easily, too often, with Reina incapable of helping to keep the goals out once they started to go in during any given match. It is notable that Reina only conceded exactly one goal in three matches last season; 14 times the Reds shipped two or more goals with Reina in net.

Brad Jones, of course, played part of the season too as Reina struggled with injury at times, missing four games in the first half of the season in a row and a further three in the latter stages.

Back to Mignolet and, so far this season, he has conceded one goal on on four occasions, with two getting past him three times.

Liverpool have been under pressure defensively more than they would have expected this term at times, meaning defence and goalkeeper have had to do more work.

Here, crucially, Mignolet easily outstrips Reina’s performance last year.

Simon Mignolet Saves This Season

Pepe Reina Saves From First 11 PL Games (Last Season)

While Reina made an average of 1.35 saves per match in 2012-13, Mignolet is currently weighing in at 2.73 saves per game—more than double the rate of the Spaniard. While it is not something that Liverpool want to encourage, giving their goalkeeper more work to do, it does indicate a greater capability of the Belgian to keep the ball out of the net—as does the crucial next stat.

Reina conceded a goal last season for every 1.27 saves he made.

Mignolet has so far only conceded a goal for every three saves made.

Put into context, had Reina been in goal and maintaining his save rate from last season, Liverpool could have conceded an extra three goals already this season.

As a raw total, Mignolet’s 30 saves this season is the fourth-highest total in the Premier League; last season, Reina rated 20th in the league with his total of 42. Only three regular first-choice stoppers finished with a lower total and all played fewer matches than the Spaniard.

Although he is a noted shot-stopper, Mignolet does not only outscore Reina on saves. His average claim success stands at a thoroughly impressive 95% at present, while his average punch success rates at 64%. Both of these are above Reina’s scores last season of 89% and 42% respectively.

Distribution will be a factor to improve as the season goes on, but Mignolet ranks lower on percentage completion rates than Reina for last season to date, he actually ranks at the top of the Premier League for all goalkeepers, and all distribution types totalled.

Did Rodgers make the right call to remove Reina? It’s early to call. At the top of his game, Reina was in the top three or four keepers in world football, but Liverpool didn’t see that form for at least the last two seasons, probably more.

Has Rodgers made the right call to bring in Mignolet?

Absolutely. He has already won the Reds points in matches this season, he is settling in to a new, younger and more technical defence and can be a firm foundation for the continued rebuilding of the team for years to come.