The road ahead for the Indian National football team

The Indian National team have had a dismal campaign in terms of World Cup 2018 qualification. Three losses in three games, two of those played at home, it puts them on a brink of an early exit from just the qualifying stage of the competition. Though, optimists will find themselves calculating India’s minute chances of qualification.

It started well for India, who being among the lowest ranked Asian teams had to begin from Round 1 of qualification. They beat Nepal 2-0 on aggregate in that round to move on to the second stage which put them in a group consisting of 5 teams along with Guam, Turkmenistan, Oman and the continent’s highest ranked team Iran. While not the ideal situation for the Blue Tigers, all hope wasn’t lost.

India started their campaign at home in poor fashion, clumsily succumbing to a 1-2 defeat against visitors Oman. The result wasn’t the end of the world but no one wants to start with a loss, and it would get worse when India visited Guam and a team riding high on players who were plying their trade outside of the country, the home side beat Stephen Constantine’s side 2-1.

Then came the tie no one expected India to win, even though they were playing at home and they provided no surprises as Iran put 3 goals past the Indian national football team without any reply.

India’s slim World Cup Qualification chances

Group D standings

Teams	Games Played	W	D	L	GF	GA	Points
Iran	3	2	1	0	10	1	7
Oman	3	2	1	0	5	2	7
Guam	4	2	1	1	3	7	7
Turkmenistan	3	0	1	2	2	5	1
India	3	0	0	3	2	7	0

The string of losses means no points gathered by the team so far in the group, the only team not to open their account as Turkmenistan have a single point from their draw against the mighty Iran at home. It leaves three sides with 7 points each – Iran, Guam and Oman – of whom only Guam gave played 4 games.

With each team slated to play the other teams in the group two times, India have a maximum of 15 points available to them. It is a tall order to expect them to get all of those points, especially given the level of opposition they will face. Having lost 2 home games, they have conceded the initiative. Nonetheless, an away over Turkmenistan, combined with India winning their remaining 2 home games may still leave the Indian team short of qualification to the next round, unless the three leaders of the group miraculously fail to win consistently. Even then India will have to earn at least a draw against Iran and Oman in their own stomping grounds to hold a candle for World Cup 2018 qualification.

Bear in mind, these are tall orders, it not only requires India to win consistently but also requires some assistance from the likes of Turkmenistan and slip ups from the leading 3 to ensure India’s progress.

With India slated to travel to Turkmenistan and Oman next, the two games should provide a better understanding of where India will stand in term of their World Cup 2018 hopes.

Asian Cup 2019 qualifying

Another campaign that is predicated on the World Cup 2018 qualifying group is what stage of Asian Cup qualifying will India have to go through. Essentially, the higher India finish in the group, the easier their Asian Cup qualification will be.

In their current place, they will make it to the qualifying play-off round which is the lowest rung of Asian Cup qualifying. Fourth place will give the Blue Tigers a chance at avoiding the playoff round and going directly to the third round if they are adjudged to be among the four best fourth placed teams from the 8 groups in the Asian leg of World Cup qualifying.

The fourth best teams are decided on the basis of points, goal difference and goals scored in that order. If those grounds fail to separate sides, a match at a neutral venue will become the decider.

If Constantine’s team somehow clinch third place they will guarantee passage to the third round of Asian Cup qualifying. Alternatively, second place can offer either the same award or a direct spot at the Asian Cup if the second placed team is among the 4 best runners-up by the above-mentioned criteria. Of course finishing top will ensure direct Asian Cup status but it’s a position that seems near impossible for India to achieve judging by performances so far.