Should Chelsea drop Oscar - Analysis

Oscar – out of form?

Oscar is going through a slightly torrid phase at the moment, the Brazilian has not scored a Premier League goal since the first of January, while he has only won just 12 tackles since the turn of the year too.

The Brazilian’s form is wavering at just the wrong time as the finishing line comes into sight for title-chasing Blues, with Eden Hazard stealing all the plaudits.

When Juan Mata departed Chelsea in a £37.5m switch to Manchester United, even the most fervent of Blues fans who swoon over Jose Mourinho began to question the wisdom of passing over the club’s best player across the last two season to a wounded rival.

Conspiracy theories began to emerge about Mourinho’s motives behind the deal.

Having played United twice, and with Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City all still to visit Old Trafford, there was a school of thought that Mourinho was simply using each and every piece of his toolkit to see off the fellow pursuers of top spot.

It seems harsh to analyse a player who has gone into such a disastrous scenario at United, but Mata’s early form for United paints the Chelsea manager in a positive light once more.

One of the central reasons, it is thought, behind releasing Mata from rotting away on the bench is the form of Oscar, who best fits Mourinho’s blueprint in the No.10 role.

His new-found standing in this team has seen him miss just two games this season, with only Hazard and Petr Cech making more appearances, and he has revelled in being tasked with a defensive responsibility, as well as supporting the Samuel Eto’o et al in attack.

Chelsea Appearances

But after a blistering start to the season – when he struck five times in 12 matches, Oscar has gone badly off the boil.

He also netted in the Champions League in a 2-1 home defeat to Basel in that time but, ironically, his last telling contribution was when he replaced Mata to score and notch two assists in the 3-0 win at Southampton on New Year’s Day.

As the now departed Spaniard threw a tantrum at being replaced, ultimately the final nail in his Stamford Bridge coffin, Oscar shone and showed why he is integral to Mourinho’s plans with this team.

But his St Mary’s strike is his only one of 2014 thus far and, when you exclude a virtuoso display against Stoke in the FA Cup, his loss of form has come at the worst possible time following Mata’s exit.

While Hazard continues to wow fans up and down the country with his sumptuous skills and devilish delivery from wide positions, Oscar has failed to hit the same spectacular heights.

Hazard trumps Oscar in just about every area of his play, with the Brazilian only coming out on top when it comes to tackling, with a 52% success rate against his team-mate’s 33%.

But as admirable as his willingness to track back is, Chelsea fans would be forgiven for demanding more from a player who is operating at the creative hub of this side and the calls for Willian to be re-introduced to proceedings could grow louder with many more below-par outings.

This weekend’s London derby with Tottenham will be a stern test of Chelsea’s credentials and, with Hazard in the form of his life, there are only two openings and three players to fill them.

One must surely go to last weekend’s matchwinner Andre Schürrle after his stunning hat-trick saw off Fulham and it seems improbable to drop someone from the team after such a crucial and perhaps critical impact.

Schürrle should take his place on the right flank, which may yet prove to be Oscar’s saving grace.

This is mainly due to Willian appearing in the same station as Schürrle could be expected to play, but which of the Brazilian duo deserves their chance to shine this weekend?

Well, when you consider Willian also has just a goal against the Saints to his name for this calendar year, it offers a hint at how closely matched they are.

His only other goal this season was a blockbuster of a strike away at Norwich City, so he’s yet to find the net at Stamford Bridge this season but then, only half of Oscar’s have come at home too.

Willian vs Oscar – comparison of games played

In fact, it is interesting to note that both of Willian’s goals have come in games where Oscar has been on the pitch at the same time, perhaps reflecting that they work best in tandem.

But the former triumphs in several key areas, not least in his shooting ability. Oscar has just a 44% success rate from 36 shots attempted while Willian’s return is stronger with 50%, although there is the caveat of fewer shots (22), but from fewer games. Hazard weighs in with an eye-catching 66%, while Schürrle is way down with 38%.

Willian vs Oscar – comparison of shots on goal

The former Shakhtar Donetsk man has also laid on 39 chances this season and, while it speaks volumes of Hazard’s season that he has nearly double that with 77, Oscar has created just 36 despite making eight more appearances in the league.

Chelsea Top Chance Creators

Each of the attacking troika touted for this weekend’s contest also post higher passing accuracy than Oscar, which comes as a slight surprise given his desire to drop deep and pick up the ball.

There is a natural expectation that he should fare better, given his effervescent movement, in his retention of the ball but Willian, Schürrle and Hazard all better his total of 82%.

As for duels, Willian also comes out on top in his average duel success and, moreover, his tackling success of 53% narrowly beats off that of Oscar’s (52%), a facet he has been lauded for possessing in his locker.

The former Sao Paulo and Internacional man may come out on top when it comes to winning fouls and headed duels but the other area most relevant to his position is in his take on success, something where Willian prevails once more with a 55% success rate.

Oscar looks as if a long slog of a Premier League season is beginning to take its toll, while Hazard is embracing the challenge of keeping Chelsea’s light burning bright ahead of the final throes of the season.

The energy, industry and craft of Willian could prove the perfect tonic to the Belgian’s dazzling displays and afford Oscar a much-needed breather.