The average shelf life of a football manager

Mick McCarthy’s sacking by Wolverhampton Wanderers, and Lee Clark’s by Huddersfield Town are the latest in a long line of sackings this season. Already we’ve seen exits such as Phil Brown being shown the door at Preston North End, Simon Grayson booted from Leeds United and a P45 given to Neil Warnock by QPR.

Are teams being too quick to ditch their managers at the first sign of trouble? Here, we’ll look at the effects of the managerial ‘merry-go-round’ on teams and see whether it’s damaging or benefiting the game.

Sacking Season

This season might be known as one for record sackings.

McCarthy and Clark top a list including Barnet sacking Mark Stimson, Crystal Palace firing George Burley, Stockport dismissing Paul Simpson, Charlton waving goodbye to Phil Parkinson and Walsall ditching Chris Hutching and you have a pretty decent sized list.

It’s not going to stop there, either. Maybe Arsene Wenger is next in the line of fire following the disastrous 4-0 defeat by AC Milan, with the result all but extinguishing Arsenal‘s hopes of reaching the last eight of the Champions League. Bookmakers have slashed the odds of Wenger’s firing from 50/1 to 12/1.

No Improvement in Results?

The effects of clubs constantly sacking and appointing new managers might have little impact on their performance. League Managers Association chief executive Richard Bevan doesn’t think so. Recent academic research commissioned by the LMA shows that the effect of changing managers initially brought an average 2.5 points for Premier League clubs, before a team’s performance dipped backed to a level below that achieved before the managerial switch.

“It is clearly the decision of club chairmen whom they hire and fire and when they choose to do this,” Bevan said. He went onto say that clubs not only end up with fewer points but are worse off financially, which can have damaging effects, especially on smaller clubs:

“But the statistics show that a club is likely to end up worse off when they sack their manager, they have less points and are often significantly out of pocket due to monies spent on compensation and paying up contracts.”

Where does the fault lie?

Bevan believes the fault lies with clubs’ belief in treating managers as scapegoats. Clubs are too quick to look towards the short term and want instant gratification.

“Yet, in football, there is an incomprehensible belief that the continued sacrificing of the football manager, the ‘scapegoat’ and installing another will turn around a football club’s performance.”, he says.

The solution, he believes, lies in managers undergoing formal appraisals. Why should football clubs be different from any other sector? Bevan argues that performance could be assessed against realistic expectations and previously, mutually agreed goals. This would place less pressure on managers and encourage organisations to work together.

I think this is a good idea. Too often there is a divide between the board and the manager, with unrealistic expectations being forced on the manager. Turning a side around takes time and there needs to be a series of goals to be reached in order to achieve this.