The Premier League stock exchange - Who to buy and who to sell

In this new feature for The Football Space we will be tracking the ups and downs of players, managers, clubs and everything else associated with the Premier League. We will look at who should be bought, held, or sold based on how they are expected to perform and how much press coverage they are expected to get in the coming days and weeks. Sometimes it will be a lesser know ‘share’ to jump on early, sometimes a more obvious one to make a solid investment.

Buy:

Gareth Bale

Bale has been passed fit to return to action for the Spurs against Manchester City this weekend and could be primed for one last spurt of form to seal the PFA Player of the Year prize which he was considered to be nailed on for earlier in the season. Bale has been grabbing the headlines all season, and is always capable of a dramatic impact. Buy now before the price spikes if he wins the game on Sunday. He’ll cost a lot, but it’ll be worth it. If he wins the Player of the Year, then you can cash in on a handsome profit.

Linesmen

With yet more complaining from managers about linesmen costing them wins for not giving decisions which are extremely difficult to see in real time, it’s fair to say there could be more this weekend. The linesmen will be on the highlights show, newspapers and all over the Internet if there is a controversial incident in one of the high profile games on Sunday. This is a slow burner investment but it should provide steady value every week.

Chelsea

After that second half showing against Manchester City in the FA Cup semi-final they crushed Fulham on Wednesday with three goals from the centre-backs. On Sunday, they go to Anfield to face a Liverpool side which is comically inconsistent, and will be expecting to win. If they can beat them, they will look set fair for a top four finish. If they don’t, then there will be the usual over-the-top reaction, so they will be in the papers one way or another. You have to know when to invest in Chelsea, but they look set for a good spell on the pitch and are about to dominate the headlines with their manager search and transfer activity.

Hold:

Arsenal

Arsenal are the very definition of a ‘hold’ stock. They are going to have hard times and good times, but then at the end the season are where they would be expected to be, safely in the top four. You would never advise buying them because they would be an expensive and stressful stock to own, but equally if you sell after one or two dodgy results you will be looking on with regret when they find form and regain value. Keep your nerve and hold firm, don’t give in to temptation to buy or sell.Manchester United

It might be tempting to buy United, but their value is as high as it can possibly be. They are expected to coast to the Premier League, so when they eventually do it won’t cause any surprise or generate buzz. The only thing that would cause excitement would be a dramatic collapse, which isn’t going to happen. Therefore, they won’t lose value, which means there is no need to sell. Equally, they can’t really be in a better position so it’s an expensive buy with no gain.

Paolo Di Canio

Di Canio entered the exchange as an largely unwanted quantity, but those who invested have been richly rewarded as his price has sky rocketed after the win at Newcastle last week. However, it’s hard to see how he can continue to gain. An away win at Newcastle to dig the team a little gap to the drop zone is as good as it gets. Now they are expected to stay up. If they do then it won’t gain exposure, and if they now get relegated you will have lost a stack of value of him. The price is too high to buy now.

Sell:

Swansea

Swansea are still well in credit for their Carling Cup win, Michael Laudrup’s appointment and the Michu signing. So the stock is worth a lot. But that was so February right? Now, with all the attention being paid to the Champions League and relegation battles, mid-table sides like Swansea will vanish from the coverage. They’ve done good things and boosted their value, but it can only go down from here. Sell now and then buy back in the summer when everyone has forgotten how good they are.

Santi Cazorla

There’s nothing wrong, and an awful lot right, with Cazorla the footballer, but he doesn’t get the admiration of others. Despite being Arsenal’s best player by a long way, and one of the most consistent players in the league this year, he has been overlooked for the end of the year awards but his teammate Jack Wilshere has got on to the list. Cazorla is acknowledged as a great Wenger signing, but because he is consistently good rather than occasionally outstanding, he has less value. He will be lost in the chatter amongst all the other big names and transfer talk. Like Swansea, sell now and buy again when he’s nice and cheap before he takes his performance up a level next year. It’s the same move as Mata last year. Watch Cazorla fly next season.

Reading

Why do you own Reading shares in the first place? Well, if you do, you should get rid of them now before they become completely worthless. It may well be a month late, but still. They’re not mathematically down but they are being treated as if they are. They’ve already changed manager, from one uncontroversial one to another, and they don’t have any memorable players. Sell, sell, sell.