The Premiership Christmas Tree: Which team will top the table after December?

“Leaders at Christmas, Champions in May”, is an oft heard adage come this time of the year when teams are about to kick-off a very busy and taxing, both physically and mentally, month long period when they play a lot of games in a very short duration of time. If you look at the schedule for 2013-14 season, all the top teams are going to play 6-7 games from 23rd November 2013 till the boxing day. That gives us a window of around 33 days and 7 games. And not to forget the final two games in UCL group stage.

Reading that last line is enough to give shudder to a few. When you have 21 points to play for, that too in so evenly contested league, it is a period of make or break. For fans it is an exciting time as they get to see their teams play every week during the festive season but for manager it comes in as a headache. Team rotation, Fitness issues, Player recovery are some of the things on a manager’s mind and when he comes across a stat which says that in the past 9 seasons, 7 times the team who was on top of the table has gone on to win the league, the task become more menacing. Let us look at the fixtures of top contenders and try to figure out, who may end up with a better return.

1. Arsenal

Arsene Wenger

Before Arsenal played the Red Devils, there was a bubble of superiority, confidence and optimism among the fans but the defeat at Old Trafford has posed some questions about their depth in the striking department and over-reliance on Mesut Ozil. Let us have a look at their upcoming fixtures:

November

23 Sat Southampton H

30 Sat Cardiff A

December

3 Tue Hull H

7 Sat Everton H

14 Sat Man City A

21 Sat Chelsea H

26 Thu West Ham A

The kind of form this Arsenal team is in right now, I’d say they are expected to win points against Cardiff, Hull, West Ham. Good news is that the tricky fixtures against Everton and Southampton and blockbuster against Chelsea are at home. It doesn’t look easy and arsenal may have to dig in a few times may be curtail their style in some matches for points. Interestingly, none of their three titles in premier league era have come when they are on top of the table at the Christmas.

They have a tough list of fixtures but a return of 15-17 points is the least they’d be eyeing for.

2. Chelsea

Jose Mourinho

November

23 West Ham A

30 Southampton H

December

3 Sunderland A7 Stoke A14 Crystal Palace H21 Arsenal A26 Swansea H

Jose Mourinho has more reasons to smile than Arsene Wenger and it is quite evident from the fixture list for Chelsea. They have depth in their squad, can rotate every week and may play a different eleven to the one that played last week, when mou is in charge, everything is a possibility. The mid-field is absolutely delightful and defense sharp, as well. The only missing piece is a striker because I do not think Torres has scored enough goals over the years.

All in all, the game against Arsenal will be a tough one but still I cannot see them losing more than 3 points in all.

3. Manchester City

Manuel Pellegrini

November

23 Sat Tottenham H

30 Sat Swansea H

December

3 Tue West Brom A

7 Sat Southampton A

14 Sat Arsenal H

21 Sat Fulham A

26 Thu Liverpool H

The fixture list is deceptive but if you examine more carefully, the supposedly tougher games against Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham are all at home and City have been imperious at the Etihad. Truly unstoppable when going forward and unbreakable at the back. The capitulation of Man united is still fresh in the memory and City have made the Etihad their fortress.

All three matches will be very entertaining and fans can expect few close encounters. The Away list is what City will be concerned about. West brom have already taken points off the Red Devils and last week at Stamford Bridge and at their home may pose a problem or two for the travelling City. Southampton have been a surprise element of this premier league and have tightest of defenses across Europe allowing very few goals and so i expect a tough fight there. The luxury of having Aguero, Jovetic, Dzeko and Negredo will be a boon for them.

I expect Manchester City to lose points and a return of 15 points will be good given the sort of fixtures they are facing.

4. Manchester United

David Moyes

November

24 Sun Cardiff A

30 Sat Tottenham A

December

3 Tue Everton H

7 Sat Newcast H

14 Sat Aston Villa A

21 Sat West Ham H

26 Thu Hull A

A lot has been said about United’s starting fixtures but i do not think David Moyes has any reason to be grumpy now. If you look at the list and compare it to the other contenders, United have the easiest draw and barring the away game at Goodison park, all the other games look manageable. Injury to Michael Carrick and dearth of options in the midfield may haunt United’s chances but again, they have had a share of their sloppiness and anymore of that now, will cost them the title. Task on Moyes’ hands will be to use his two top players Robin van Persie and Wayne Rooney efficiently. Chicharito, Kagawa, Fellaini and Januzaj all will get fair share of games for proving their mite.

I expect United to pick-up 19-21 points and it is a realistic measure if they have to be anywhere around the title come May 2014.